stock market was up today...

#8,926
#8,926
05_never_again said:
Happened during the fall of '08, and honestly, the most worrisome move of the 3 you mentioned is the move in interest rates.

This selloff since mid-February has a very fall of 2008 feel to it, the biggest difference being that selloff occurred near the end of the bear market, with the markets already way off their highs. This one is different in that the major indices made new all-time highs just about 3 weeks ago. The speed of the decline has caught almost everybody, even people who were cautious or bearish on the market, by surprise.
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If I remember correctly crude oil surged to about $150 during 2008. It later fell but as the market was tanking oil prices were surging to put another stick up everyones butt.
 
#8,927
#8,927
VolStrom said:
If I remember correctly crude oil surged to about $150 during 2008. It later fell but as the market was tanking oil prices were surging to put another stick up everyones butt.
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It did, but the completely collapsed during the late summer/fall of 2008. The second half of 2008 stocks got ripped, oil got ripped, interest rates got ripped (bond prices skyrocketed).
 
#8,928
#8,928
05_never_again said:
Happened during the fall of '08, and honestly, the most worrisome move of the 3 you mentioned is the move in interest rates.

This selloff since mid-February has a very fall of 2008 feel to it, the biggest difference being that selloff occurred near the end of the bear market, with the markets already way off their highs. This one is different in that the major indices made new all-time highs just about 3 weeks ago. The speed of the decline has caught almost everybody, even people who were cautious or bearish on the market, by surprise.
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Coronavirus fears kicked it off. Then recession fears started. Now it's oil prices. All 3 in at once is a lot of bear.
 
#8,929
#8,929
TheDeeble said:
Coronavirus fears kicked it off. Then recession fears started. Now it's oil prices. All 3 in at once is a lot of bear.
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We felt like it’s been coming for a while now. Things happen in 3’s, isn’t that what they say? Might as well get it out of the way now and move on with a recovery.
 
#8,931
#8,931
Here's a silver lining. China's economy has slowed so they won't benefit as much from the cheap oil. Of course it's kind of cause and effect. If their economy was surging, then oil would be expensive.
 
#8,932
#8,932
05_never_again said:
Happened during the fall of '08, and honestly, the most worrisome move of the 3 you mentioned is the move in interest rates.
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What, exactly, are people referring to when they say today is bad for the credit markets?

What specifically are they sensitive to that might have been triggered the last few days?

 
#8,933
#8,933
Rasputin_Vol said:
And that still may be too high. There's worries floating that if Russia and The Saudis keep it up, we will be in the low 20s...
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We very well could see $20ish per barrel and it would hurt us. It would devastate Russia if it stayed that low for any length of time and put a serious crimp in the ME ruling families budgets.

Anything under $50 per barrel is bad for almost everyone, used oil market is complete trash right now and storage is getting low.
 
#8,934
#8,934
Velo Vol said:
What, exactly, are people referring to when they say today is bad for the credit markets?

What specifically are they sensitive to that might have been triggered the last few days?

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First of all, it should be said that with brief exceptions Roubini has been saying this for about the last decade, ever since the end of the financial crisis. He was right in 2007-08, which is how he made a name for himself. The problem is that he's a permabear, so of course he's going to be right again at some point.

There's a lot of leverage in the system generally. The thought is that the rout in oil along with impacts of the virus could create a tightening in high yield credit generally (lots of smaller oil companies fall into that category), and then that ripples through the broader credit market. Not saying it won't happen, but the banks are also fairly well-capitalized right now. Europe's are not.
 
#8,935
#8,935
hog88 said:
We very well could see $20ish per barrel and it would hurt us. It would devastate Russia if it stayed that low for any length of time and put a serious crimp in the ME ruling families budgets.

Anything under $50 per barrel is bad for almost everyone, used oil market is complete trash right now and storage is getting low.
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Russia and The Saudis are willing to risk short term pain if it means destroying domestic shale companies that have been borrowing like crazy just to keep the drills running. The end game could end up with The Saudis and Russia a bit lighter in the pockets while domestic shale is destroyed.
 
#8,936
#8,936
Velo Vol said:
What, exactly, are people referring to when they say today is bad for the credit markets?

What specifically are they sensitive to that might have been triggered the last few days?

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So, if stocks are falling and now the bond markets are standing on a cliff, where else is there to run?
 
#8,940
#8,940
Rasputin_Vol said:
Russia and The Saudis are willing to risk short term pain if it means destroying domestic shale companies that have been borrowing like crazy just to keep the drills running. The end game could end up with The Saudis and Russia a bit lighter in the pockets while domestic shale is destroyed.
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Our domestic production won't be destroyed. Hurt? Yes but not destroyed, as soon as the prices climb back up they will be producing and the investors will come running again. Russia will be the long term loser in this.
 
#8,943
#8,943
05_never_again said:
First of all, it should be said that with brief exceptions Roubini has been saying this for about the last decade, ever since the end of the financial crisis. He was right in 2007-08, which is how he made a name for himself. The problem is that he's a permabear, so of course he's going to be right again at some point.

There's a lot of leverage in the system generally. The thought is that the rout in oil along with impacts of the virus could create a tightening in high yield credit generally (lots of smaller oil companies fall into that category), and then that ripples through the broader credit market. Not saying it won't happen, but the banks are also fairly well-capitalized right now. Europe's are not.
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I'm not just citing Roubini--I heard this on Bloomberg more than once today.

I guess we're not necessarily talking first line lenders here, but maybe investors who bought an inordinate amount of debt from trouble sectors?
 
#8,945
#8,945
Velo Vol said:
Guess you should be buying coins.
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You can’t eat coins , gold or oil . If what EL is talking about happens , what you have now may not be worth anything regardless of what it is . Except guns and ammunition, they are worth their weight in any precious gems or shiny bobbles the worse things gets . Funny how that works out . 😊
 
#8,949
#8,949
lawgator1 said:
I actually predicted that. He doesn't want to take tough questions about his effort over the last few days or a week to minimize it.
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That’s because there is nothing to be panicked about. Had he not showed up you and you libs would be crying about that. You all live very sad lifes
 
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