stock market was up today...

#9,651
#9,651
lawgator1 said:
Ordinarily I would agree as the market tends to run ahead of the news.

But with this, so much is uncertain, I expect the market to be skittish, at least at first. 2-3 days of markedly slower spread would do it. News of a viable treatment would, as well. A vaccine in the next 2-3 weeks would send us up 4-5k points in a heartbeat.
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I don't think that a vaccine is expected for at least 6 months. If one emerged in the next 2-3 weeks than we'd see 10k added. An effective treatment however... that could happen.
 
#9,653
#9,653
Thunder Good-Oil said:
I don't know about an extended run, but a small bump and stabilized prices seems reasonable until the virus data is validated as improving. The US peak will occur weeks after Italy's. The damage to the US economy will take even longer to access than identifying the peak, but markets always overshoot in both directions.
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lawgator1 said:
Ordinarily I would agree as the market tends to run ahead of the news.

But with this, so much is uncertain, I expect the market to be skittish, at least at first. 2-3 days of markedly slower spread would do it. News of a viable treatment would, as well. A vaccine in the next 2-3 weeks would send us up 4-5k points in a heartbeat.
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Yep. I don't mean straight up for an extended time. I mean the virus curve will function like a mini-econ curve short term. The actual economic cycle is a big question.
 
#9,654
#9,654
Hey @evillawyer biggest single point gain in a day ever. Since you like to deal in absolutes I’m sure you will be by shortly with a tweet about it right girl? 😂

And I’m sure you’ve already got multiple tweets on it to post right @Velo Vol 🤣
 
#9,657
#9,657
Ernest T. Vol said:
Yep. I don't mean straight up for an extended time. I mean the virus curve will function like a mini-econ curve short term. The actual economic cycle is a big question.
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Earnings will obviously be obliterated. IMO P/S ratios will be more relevant than P/E for many quarters. The unemployment numbers are going to be huge market movers in the near term. 30%, as some are predicting, would be devastating and would instantly erase any gains off of lows.
 
#9,660
#9,660
Velo Vol said:
Toll Brothers +39%

Makes sense.
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Anecdotal (that means don't trust this)....got an old high school buddy in the commercial paint business. He told me last night the paint store he deals with was over run with individuals buying paint for home do it yourself painting while locked down. SHW closed up 14.45% today.
 
#9,661
#9,661
Ernest T. Vol said:
Anecdotal (that means don't trust this)....got an old high school buddy in the commercial paint business. He told me last night the paint store he deals with was over run with individuals buying paint for home do it yourself painting while locked down. SHW closed up 14.45% today.
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I have been painting the inside of mine the last few days.
 
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#9,662
#9,662
Velo Vol said:
Toll Brothers +39%

Makes sense.
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When you look at one day in isolation, nothing will make sense to you. Markets are driven by the marginal buyer. The guy who last bought/sold shares sets the price for everyone. Before today's action, TOL was down 74% from its 52-week high. It's still down 61% from that high. There are some shorts out there sitting on tremendously profitable positions, and they were covering today I'm sure. Stuff doesn't go down in a straight line.

Companies that have eventually gone bankrupt (Enron, Lehman, etc.) would rally like a mofo on perceived "good news." In fact most of the biggest intraday rallies of all time occurred in the throes of bear markets.
 
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#9,664
#9,664
Ernest T. Vol said:
Anecdotal (that means don't trust this)....got an old high school buddy in the commercial paint business. He told me last night the paint store he deals with was over run with individuals buying paint for home do it yourself painting while locked down. SHW closed up 14.45% today.
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PPG was up 65% on 200,000 shares traded in the premarket. It came in with a far more reasonable gain.
 
#9,668
#9,668
05_never_again said:
When you look at one day in isolation, nothing will make sense to you. Markets are driven by the marginal buyer. The guy who last bought/sold shares sets the price for everyone. Before today's action, TOL was down 74% from its 52-week high. It's still down 61% from that high. There are some shorts out there sitting on tremendously profitable positions, and they were covering today I'm sure. Stuff doesn't go down in a straight line.
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Who are the marginal buyers?

My impression (and I could be wrong) is that big traders (hedge funds, institutions, etc.) set the course of the market and retail buyers are just along for the ride.
 
#9,670
#9,670
Velo Vol said:
Who are the marginal buyers?

My impression (and I could be wrong) is that big traders (hedge funds, institutions, etc.) set the course of the market and retail buyers are just along for the ride.
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The marginal buyer? The guy who just bought stock a second ago, no matter who it is.
 
#9,671
#9,671
Well, co-worker said this afternoon his son got pulled over twice by Illinois state trooper and a county deputy. Luckily, he was an essential worker able to travel. Else, they may have given him a ticket or arrested him... or worse.
 
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#9,672
#9,672
85SugarVol said:
Gold futures up 6% for biggest daily rise in 11 years
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Me this afternoon...


d91.gif
 
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#9,673
#9,673
Rasputin_Vol said:
Well, co-worker said this afternoon his son got pulled over twice by Illinois state trooper and a county deputy. Luckily, he was an essential worker able to travel. Else, they may have given him a ticket or arrested him... or worse.
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Hillary's dream is coming true. A virus is turning us into a Nazi state. Pull them over and make them show their papers. Tattooed ID#s and implanted chips aren't far from reality. China already has facial recognition technology being enabled on the population.
 
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