stock market was up today...

[NorthDallas40]

I'm deemed essential at the moment.



For the very last time... the inflation you are looking for did not show itself on Main Street at the grocery stores or at the gas pump. The inflation showed up largely in the stock market, with other examples showing in college tuitions/student loans and the housing market.

I don’t know if being essential is good or bad. I guess it means you keep getting a check and that’s good. I’m in the same boat.

I’ve already rejected your premise on the market. If people borrowed money to invest then they still had that loan they had to answer for. That isn’t just “poof” out of the air with no balance sheet offset. Your premise on the manifestation of inflation simply doesn’t make a lot of sense to me.

The government originated student loan debt also has an accounting offset. The government added to the national debt when they sold the treasuries. They used that money to originate student loans but those treasures still exist. Whether they will ever get paid or not I am not going to speculate on.

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

I don’t know if being essential is good or bad. I guess it means you keep getting a check and that’s good. I’m in the same boat.

I’ve already rejected your premise on the market. If people borrowed money to invest then they still had that loan they had to answer for. That isn’t just “poof” out of the air with no balance sheet offset. Your premise on the manifestation of inflation simply doesn’t make a lot of sense to me.

The government originated student loan debt also has an accounting offset. The government added to the national debt when they sold the treasuries. They used that money to originate student loans but those treasures still exist. Whether they will ever get paid or not I am not going to speculate on.

I agree with you.... it doesn't make sense. But that is exactly how it is. "Poof..."

 

[NorthDallas40]

I agree with you.... it doesn't make sense. But that is exactly how it is. "Poof..."

Fair enough.

 

[NorthDallas40]

So what say you all about today? Stress relief emotional buying? All we have is some promise with no real change and things are popping.

FFS look at Disney. They are still shut down and will be for the foreseeable future yet they are popping?!

And airlines are across the board admitting there ultimately will be a domestic flight shutdown also.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

So what say you all about today? Stress relief emotional buying? All we have is some promise with no real change and things are popping.

FFS look at Disney. They are still shut down and will be for the foreseeable future yet they are popping?!

And airlines are across the board admitting there ultimately will be a domestic flight shutdown also.

Disney theme parks are dead in the water but their ratings at ABC and ESPN should be doing very well with everybody at home. Plus they are likely saving a ton in programming costs with all of the live sports put on pause while still having the captive audience. Advertising sales should be under pressure, but replaying previous year games is very inexpensive programming to fill up their schedules.

 

[NorthDallas40]

Disney theme parks are dead in the water but their rating at ABC and ESPN should be doing very well with everybody at home. Plus they are likely saving a ton in programming costs with all of the live sports put on pause while still having the captive audience. Advertising sales should be under pressure, but replaying previous year games is very inexpensive programming to fill up their schedules.

Ok that makes sense. Thanks for that insight. Still wouldn’t touch them with a ten foot pole right now.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Disney also benefits from an ideal environment to roll out their subscription based streaming service.

 

[05_never_again]

Disney theme parks are dead in the water but their ratings at ABC and ESPN should be doing very well with everybody at home. Plus they are likely saving a ton in programming costs with all of the live sports put on pause while still having the captive audience. Advertising sales should be under pressure, but replaying previous year games is very inexpensive programming to fill up their schedules.

People quarantining accelerates cord cutting, IMO. Ultimately not good for ESPN. Also, I don't know how good the ratings are, because the big ticket stuff they've paid for (NBA, MLB, etc.) isn't playing.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

People quarantining accelerates cord cutting, IMO. Ultimately not good for ESPN. Also, I don't know how good the ratings are, because the big ticket stuff they've paid for (NBA, MLB, etc.) isn't playing.

Long term it will be beneficial to the ESPNs. They will just collect their subscription fees directly rather than shaking down the cable companies and other content delivery platforms. Plus they won't have to share any of the commercial inventory.

 

[05_never_again]

So what say you all about today? Stress relief emotional buying? All we have is some promise with no real change and things are popping.

FFS look at Disney. They are still shut down and will be for the foreseeable future yet they are popping?!

And airlines are across the board admitting there ultimately will be a domestic flight shutdown also.

DIS was off almost 50% at one point from its 52-week high. Clearly, what is happening to their business is priced in to a certain extent. Stocks, even ones that are ultimately screwed (think Enron or Lehman Brothers) don't go down in a straight line. Not saying Disney is screwed in the same fashion those companies were, but stock in downtrends don't just go down uniformly day after day. There are countertrend rallies.

Ultimately, it isn't a bad sign when what you indicate starts happening though..."bad news" hits the headlines and stocks don't fall more. Airlines across the board are admitting there will be a domestic flight shutdown, yet the stocks are bouncing hard after massive declines. Effectively, there's been a de facto shutdown in domestic air travel for the last couple weeks anyway...flights taking off with 5 people on them, many flights cancelled, etc. The market knows this already.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

All I'm asking for today is that Trump doesn't hand out signed print outs of the day's chart.

 

[rjd970]

These daily swings are wild. It seems the market is still working through how to price this.

 

[lawgator1]

All I'm asking for today is that Trump doesn't hand out signed print outs of the day's chart.

He will.

The chart will be from 9:29 a.m. to about 2 p.m.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

He will.

The chart will be from 9:29 a.m. to about 2 p.m.

My actual request is that today's gain hangs on and tomorrow finishes up as well. It's been a long time since there have been back-to-back up days. I don't want to get greedy, but I won't complain if the mother of all short squeezes is released soon.

 

[85SugarVol]

My actual request is that today's gain hangs on and tomorrow finishes up as well. It's been a long time since there have been back-to-back up days. I don't want to get greedy, but I won't complain if the mother of all short squeezes is released soon.

I fully expect these gains harvested at the end of the session...

 

[NorthDallas40]

I fully expect these gains harvested at the end of the session...

So you think it comes back down most of the way by days end? Maybe... but I think there’s so much faux relief buying it’s gonna stay positive a couple of percent.

 

[85SugarVol]

So you think it comes back down most of the way by days end? Maybe... but I think there’s so much faux relief buying it’s gonna stay positive a couple of percent.

I think it will stay positive. But not at this level.

 

[85SugarVol]

Gold futures up 6% for biggest daily rise in 11 years

 

[05_never_again]

All I'm asking for today is that Trump doesn't hand out signed print outs of the day's chart.

The markets have less of a clue on how to price this than how much bad debt was on bank debt balance sheets in 2008. And they were totally clueless on how to price that.

Those are words I never thought I'd say.

 

[lawgator1]

My actual request is that today's gain hangs on and tomorrow finishes up as well. It's been a long time since there have been back-to-back up days. I don't want to get greedy, but I won't complain if the mother of all short squeezes is released soon.

I predict that the people who predict the market before we have a real handle on how bad the virus is going to get will regret having predicting.

 

[85SugarVol]

I think it will stay positive. But not at this level.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

I predict that the people who predict the market before we have a real handle on how bad the virus is going to get will regret having predicting.

The virus data is rolling in daily. China seems to have stabilized and Italy is, not unexpectedly, seeing critical levels. Nobody is predicting a near term end, but a near term peak is very possible.

 

[Ernest T. Vol]

The virus data is rolling in daily. China seems to have stabilized and Italy is, not unexpectedly, seeing critical levels. Nobody is predicting a near term end, but a near term peak is very possible.

I think the market will trade ahead of the virus a lot like the econ cycle. Market will run before the virus peak.

 

[lawgator1]

I think the market will trade ahead of the virus a lot like the econ cycle. Market will run before the virus peak.

Ordinarily I would agree as the market tends to run ahead of the news.

But with this, so much is uncertain, I expect the market to be skittish, at least at first. 2-3 days of markedly slower spread would do it. News of a viable treatment would, as well. A vaccine in the next 2-3 weeks would send us up 4-5k points in a heartbeat.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

I think the market will trade ahead of the virus a lot like the econ cycle. Market will run before the virus peak.

I don't know about an extended run, but a small bump and stabilized prices seems reasonable until the virus data is validated as improving. The US peak will occur weeks after Italy's. The damage to the US economy will take even longer to access than identifying the peak, but markets always overshoot in both directions.