stock market was up today...

#10,403
#10,403
Stock market rising amid the looting & chaos! I think it sees incompetent Democrats running failed cities & states and a future Donald Trump reelection on the horizon!
 
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#10,404
#10,404
I took William Devane's advice and bought Silver when it was high and now I've followed him into gold. I'm only down 50% but it looks good. I'm thinking about getting a reverse mortgage because Tom Selleck told me he recommends them and it's not his first rodeo because he knows what's best. If you guys could just follow the great advice you get on TV you'd be rich!
 
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#10,410
#10,410
VolStrom said:
Some people are still waiting to nibble at 16-18k on the dow. Dammit man why didn't I listen to you? Oh wait I just held and did fine?
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Holding has proven to work out just fine with a long term view...and that’s usually me. I knew I probably should hold, but I had to take a shot.
 
#10,413
#10,413
85SugarVol said:
How’s everybody looking from the low point? I’m almost all the way back at this point - View attachment 284597
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Big missed opportunity for me. And called the bottom and was gonna pull the trigger the next day but it bounced up several points so I said I’ll wait. And I waited ... and waited ... until I didn’t think the risk warranted the possible reward for retirement money. But I don’t think we’re done yet I think I’ll still get a chance to make some coin.
 
#10,414
#10,414
85SugarVol said:
What did you short?
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I didn’t. Sold most of what I held in mid/late February with the exception of ETFs. Bought back all the good stuff I wanted after the Dow rebounded a little north of 19k. I’m not astute enough to play options as I’m traditionally an investor and not a trader. But the fear was so reminiscent of 08/09.
 
#10,415
#10,415
I am buying a house and needed the cash so I pulled out of the market around the end of March to cut my losses. It cost me about $30k which hurts pretty bad, especially seeing where the market is now. It was just really crappy timing.

I’m actually up on my long term holdings from February.
 
#10,416
#10,416
rjd970 said:
I am buying a house and needed the cash so I pulled out of the market around the end of March to cut my losses. It cost me about $30k which hurts pretty bad, especially seeing where the market is now. It was just really crappy timing.

I’m actually up on my long term holdings from February.
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Oof. Hope you got a great rate and a good price on the house. If you did you will get ROI on that money then anyway.
 
#10,417
#10,417
NorthDallas40 said:
Oof. Hope you got a great rate and a good price on the house. If you did you will get ROI on that money then anyway.
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I got an excellent rate which is my saving grace. The only downside is the rate is so low it makes the more sense to throw it back in the market, but that taste is still pretty bad. I probably will jump back in later this year as it becomes clear what is going to happen with the election. Fortune favors the bold and what not.
 
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#10,418
#10,418
rjd970 said:
I got an excellent rate which is my saving grace. The only downside is the rate is so low it makes the more sense to throw it back in the market, but that taste is still pretty bad. I probably will jump back in later this year as it becomes clear what is going to happen with the election. Fortune favors the bold and what not.
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Take the good rate and don’t look back then I say. If you plan to be in the house for a while you’ll get your money back.
 
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#10,421
#10,421
DancingOutlaw said:
Honestly I would not wait around, the market is bound to go up. I think if you wait months you'll be kicking yourself.
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I don’t disagree. I have some cash and I’m looking at a 5 year horizon with a medium risk portfolio....entry point is important. I’m banking on another market tank in the next 18 months. It just seems too hot right now. If it doesn’t happen then I may just pay down the house. I’m fortunate that I have it to play with so I’m not stressing it too bad.
 
#10,423
#10,423
VolStrom said:
I took William Devane's advice and bought Silver when it was high and now I've followed him into gold. I'm only down 50% but it looks good. I'm thinking about getting a reverse mortgage because Tom Selleck told me he recommends them and it's not his first rodeo because he knows what's best. If you guys could just follow the great advice you get on TV you'd be rich!
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That's ridiculous. I'm renting mini warehouse space and am in the process of filling the units up with rolls of toilet paper and MyPillows that I purchased with a line of credit from Check-Into-Cash.
 
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#10,424
#10,424
85SugarVol said:
How’s everybody looking from the low point? I’m almost all the way back at this point - View attachment 284597
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Depends on investment account (since 1/1/20)

The return from 401k is lagging a little bit behind indexes. The return from Roth IRA is doing a couple points better than index and has turned positive for the year recently. The returns from Individual stock account performing well above index but that's largely due to fortunate (and consistent) investments in March and April.
 
#10,425
#10,425
Morgan Stanley (Mike Wilson):

Economies move in cycles. However, these cycles only matter for financial markets at turning points because most of the time the economy is in an expansion phase. Such turning points include periods when growth accelerates or decelerates, but the economy is still expanding. Economic recessions are different, however. These are periods when growth is actually negative and the economy is shrinking. Recessions are also rare, occurring just once per decade in the US.

Therefore, it makes sense that a good part of our investment strategy research centers around cycle analysis. We find it very useful and profitable when properly interpreted. As discussed over the past few months, when it becomes obvious to everyone we're entering an economic recession that usually marks the end, rather than the beginning, of the bear market. In fact, we've shown in our research just how similar this cycle has been to prior recessions with respect to financial markets.

Of course, all economic cycles are unique in some way too, which can affect the rate and sustainability of the recovery while also determining both new opportunities and areas ripe for disappointment. With respect to this recession, we think the primary differentiating feature is the nature of the exogenous shock that triggered it. The pandemic provides a faceless villain that everyone wants to defeat but can't really punish for our economic hardship. In short, there are no bad actors in this recession. This has liberated policymakers to do whatever it takes, both on a monetary and fiscal front, and that is what's very different this time when thinking about the recovery.

More specifically, after the Great Financial Crisis recession of 2008, we got unprecedented monetary policy support with central banks introducing quantitative easing, or QE. To the average person, QE is better known as "money printing." However, these QE programs were uncoordinated at first, with the U.S. initiating its QE program in late 2008, while Japan and Europe waited several years. This time, all three major central banks are printing money at the same time, with the Fed printing more money in this current program than they did in the following three years after the financial crisis.

We're also getting fiscal support this time. After the financial crisis, many governments practiced fiscal austerity, whereas this time we are seeing record setting fiscal deficits led by the US. This coordinated policy mix has led to much faster growth in the money supply. And money supply is a function of both the amount of money on the Fed's balance sheet and the velocity of money in the real economy. This money is flowing into asset prices, but it's also flowing into the real economy. And it's just one more reason why we will likely remain more optimistic on both the rate and sustainability of the recovery. It also means we will continue to suggest investors look for more cyclical stocks as they add equity risk to their portfolios.
 
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