stock market was up today...

#10,704
#10,704
newarkvol said:
OK, OK-- The stock market was down between 2001-2009--- BIGLY
We Looked At How The Stock Market Performed Under Every U.S. President Since Truman — And The Results Will Surprise You
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I've always said that much of the performance of equity markets affected by POTUS policy lags. Economic stimulus might take several years to kick in. Tax policy is pretty immediate, but econ policies that discourage production inside US borders would be a drag years out as jobs trickle away. The opposite holds true as well... building domestic production facilities pays off in the longer time frame. China is another example. Trump can be hard on the CCP but the biggest benefits will occur years out.

Also, Congress is a big variable. It's not typically a valid correlation of POTUS years and market averages. Obama was still POTUS as markets soared with Trump's 2016 smack down of that evil witch.
 
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#10,705
#10,705
newarkvol said:
OK, OK-- The stock market was down between 2001-2009--- BIGLY
We Looked At How The Stock Market Performed Under Every U.S. President Since Truman — And The Results Will Surprise You
Click to expand...
Generally the democrats put in policies that take a few years to trash the market so the republicans get blamed for previous mistakes when they get elected. It's a cycle, the democrats trash the economy and when things start to go down hill a republican gets elected. When the economy improves and everyone is giddy they get all liberal and elect a democrat which in turn trashes the economy and the cycle repeats.
 
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#10,706
#10,706
Thunder Good-Oil said:
I've always said that much of the performance of equity markets affected by POTUS policy lags. Economic stimulus might take several years to kick in. Tax policy is pretty immediate, but econ policies that discourage production inside US borders would be a drag years out as jobs trickle away. The opposite holds true as well... building domestic production facilities pays off in the longer time frame. China is another example. Trump can be hard on the CCP but the biggest benefits will occur years out.
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If building domestic production facilities are a surefire way to improve corporate profitability (we're talking the stock market here) then corporations would be doing it regardless of POTUS policy.
 
#10,707
#10,707
Ee7qTh6XoAIZNI9
 
#10,708
#10,708
Velo Vol said:
If building domestic production facilities are a surefire way to improve corporate profitability (we're talking the stock market here) then corporations would be doing it regardless of POTUS policy.
Click to expand...

Economic policies go far beyond corporate profitability. If employees do well then many corporations will follow as the US economy is heavily consumer based. Growing domestic production has long term benefits. Telling the CCP to eff off presents short term challenges for corporate profits of many companies. Apple is a huge example of a corporate bottom line getting dinged from a hard-line stance with China. But some of that is offset with strict accountability over IP theft. And as big as Apple is, they aren't capitalized anything close to China. Look at what the CCP government did to our steel producers.
 
#10,709
#10,709
Velo Vol said:
Ee7qTh6XoAIZNI9
Click to expand...

I see no chance of this happening. Twitter has been persona non grata in China forever, and Trump doesn't like Dorsey. Taking the politics out of the equation, I think Microsoft's bid for TikTok values it around the same market cap as Twitter. I think Microsoft is the only American company that wants TikTok and also could execute the deal in the given timeframe, but I don't even like their chances of getting it done.
 
#10,711
#10,711
TheColdVolTruth said:
I see no chance of this happening. Twitter has been persona non grata in China forever, and Trump doesn't like Dorsey. Taking the politics out of the equation, I think Microsoft's bid for TikTok values it around the same market cap as Twitter. I think Microsoft is the only American company that wants TikTok and also could execute the deal in the given timeframe, but I don't even like their chances of getting it done.
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I have no idea what may happen. Just pointing out that the TikTok business is mostly outside China.
 
#10,712
#10,712
Thunder Good-Oil said:
Economic policies go far beyond corporate profitability. If employees do well then many corporations will follow as the US economy is heavily consumer based. Growing domestic production has long term benefits. Telling the CCP to eff off presents short term challenges for corporate profits of many companies. Apple is a huge example of a corporate bottom line getting dinged from a hard-line stance with China. But some of that is offset with strict accountability over IP theft. And as big as Apple is, they aren't capitalized anything close to China. Look at what the CCP government did to our steel producers.
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That's the point, though. We're talking stock market here.

A hawkish Chinese policy isn't going to improve the performance of FAANG corporations, which are the engine of the market these days.
 
#10,713
#10,713
Velo Vol said:
That's the point, though. We're talking stock market here.

A hawkish Chinese policy isn't going to improve the performance of FAANG corporations, which are the engine of the market these days.
Click to expand...

Short term, no for many equity securities. Long term all parts of the capitalist economy benefit by NOT supporting a growing, competing government controlled system such as the CCA's. And US equity markets are directly linked to the economy. But they are lead by individuals being held accountable based on short term financial performance.
 
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#10,716
#10,716
85SugarVol said:
What happened a few months back? Was that a bubble popping? Are we right back in the same bubble, or are you predicting an even more precipitous drop?
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I think (some of) the smart money got out in Feb-Mar. Now I think you have Robin Hood traders and the rest of the "smart" money buying on dips.

It wouldn't surprise me at all to see a pull back to 15k early next year.
 
#10,717
#10,717
Rasputin_Vol said:
I think (some of) the smart money got out in Feb-Mar. Now I think you have Robin Hood traders and the rest of the "smart" money buying on dips.

It wouldn't surprise me at all to see a pull back to 15k early next year.
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Wow, that would be one hell of a collapse. Are you planning on Biden winning the election and putting in his "Progressive" ideologies? If not, I expect the economy to ramp up over the next 2 years back to full steam ahead along with a rebuilding of our manufacturing economy without China. Once we start making stuff again and bring back pharmaceuticals employment should look pretty good. The hospitality and restaurant business will take a while longer, if they ever come back.
 
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#10,718
#10,718
VolStrom said:
Wow, that would be one hell of a collapse. Are you planning on Biden winning the election and putting in his "Progressive" ideologies? If not, I expect the economy to ramp up over the next 2 years back to full steam ahead along with a rebuilding of our manufacturing economy without China. Once we start making stuff again and bring back pharmaceuticals employment should look pretty good. The hospitality and restaurant business will take a while longer, if they ever come back.
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Hospitality & Restaurants will most certainly come back. As soon as Americans have money to burn again.

I don’t think low end manufacturing will ever come back. But I would like to see it moved. SE Asia & Mexico could handle a large chunk of it.

I would like to see Pharmaceuticals come back. Absolutely no reason that stuff should be overseas imo.
 
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#10,719
#10,719
Thunder Good-Oil said:
Short term, no for many equity securities. Long term all parts of the capitalist economy benefit by NOT supporting a growing, competing government controlled system such as the CCA's. And US equity markets are directly linked to the economy. But they are lead by individuals being held accountable based on short term financial performance.
Click to expand...
CCA? China?

They're not supporting it, they're trading with it. And remember it's a huge market, which even only partially opened is still a place for growth.
Rasputin_Vol said:
It wouldn't surprise me at all to see a pull back to 15k early next year.
Click to expand...
15K what?
 
#10,723
#10,723
85SugarVol said:
Hospitality & Restaurants will most certainly come back.
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WTF? Forget about most of the public being scared sh$$less by the media to go out and live a normal pre-COVID life. Most of the restaurants, probably over 60% of local mom & pops, are closed forever. Then, if this scare drags on, what restrictions and regulations are going to be enforced on restaurants? No alcohol sales? Takeout only? PPE costs for staff? Upgraded HVAC and UV lighting regulations?
 
#10,724
#10,724
Velo Vol said:
That's the point, though. We're talking stock market here.

A hawkish Chinese policy isn't going to improve the performance of FAANG corporations, which are the engine of the market these days.
Click to expand...

Here's a curious thought to keep in mind...

When/If there's a vaccine, FAANG is gonna crash.
 
#10,725
#10,725
MontyPython said:
Here's a curious thought to keep in mind...

When/If there's a vaccine, FAANG is gonna crash.
Click to expand...
I'll take that bet. I think FAANGs only "crash" if the money printing stops and/or this QAnon nonsense actually does take legs and you see a massive rejection of these social media outlets.
 
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