stock market was up today...

#10,726
#10,726
Velo Vol said:
CCA? China?

They're not supporting it, they're trading with it. And remember it's a huge market, which even only partially opened is still a place for growth.
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S/B CCP. Chinese Communist Party. The scourge of Earth.

Trading with them supports their system. They sell more here than they buy. They are at war with us. We need to push back. Hard. IDGAF if that means Walmart and DollarTree struggle with their near term bottom lines. And if Apple and the rest of big tech has to figure out different methods.
 
#10,727
#10,727
MontyPython said:
Here's a curious thought to keep in mind...

When/If there's a vaccine, FAANG is gonna crash.
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Why on earth would a vaccine cause FAANG to crash?

Forget about Amazon crashing. That’s just dumb.
How would Apple be negatively impacted?
How would Google be negatively impacted?

I guess I could buy Netflix taking a hit.
And it is only a matter of time for Facebook.

But no vaccine is going to crash AMZN, AAPL, MSFT, or GOOG
 
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#10,728
#10,728
Rasputin_Vol said:
WTF? Forget about most of the public being scared sh$$less by the media to go out and live a normal pre-COVID life. Most of the restaurants, probably over 60% of local mom & pops, are closed forever. Then, if this scare drags on, what restrictions and regulations are going to be enforced on restaurants? No alcohol sales? Takeout only? PPE costs for staff? Upgraded HVAC and UV lighting regulations?
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Some mom & pops for sure will never come back.

But the Airlines, Cruiselines, Hotels, Themeparks, & most Restaurants will all bounce back.

Watch the narrative change overnight if Biden wins in November. But regardless, they’ll all be back eventually.
 
#10,731
#10,731
Velo Vol said:
I was a post-COVID market rally skeptic into the summer. But we've seen a relapse and there was no selloff. So I don't see what would cause us to revisit March now.
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Lol, apparently a vaccine will now be what tanks the Market....
 
#10,732
#10,732
85SugarVol said:
Lol, apparently a vaccine will now be what tanks the Market....
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Am I misreading things, or doesn't the current market expectation seem to be that we'll slog along with COVID at more or less the current level into the fall, and maybe a vaccine will come this winter?
 
#10,733
#10,733
85SugarVol said:
Some mom & pops for sure will never come back.

But the Airlines, Cruiselines, Hotels, Themeparks, & most Restaurants will all bounce back.

Watch the narrative change overnight if Biden wins in November. But regardless, they’ll all be back eventually.
Click to expand...
Well that is pretty open ended. Eventually? You mean 2023-2024?
 
#10,734
#10,734
Velo Vol said:
Am I misreading things, or doesn't the current market expectation seem to be that we'll slog along with COVID at more or less the current level into the fall, and maybe a vaccine will come this winter?
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I think the Markets definitely have a recovery baked in. Not sure if it has a timeline, though.
 
#10,736
#10,736
Velo Vol said:
Am I misreading things, or doesn't the current market expectation seem to be that we'll slog along with COVID at more or less the current level into the fall, and maybe a vaccine will come this winter?
Click to expand...

Your optimism is pretty scarry right now. After everything we've seen so far, there is no way you can hang your hat on anything that is being said right now. No guarantee of a vaccine. The election... maybe a long drawn out election like 2000. China. Money printing. Bankruptcies.

Keep in mind, before COVID, this economy was in a bubble waiting for a pin. The world record money printing essentially propped up some of these zombie companies, but for the most part, they are still in bad financial shape.
 
#10,737
#10,737
85SugarVol said:
No. 2022.
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If Biden gets in and starts raising taxes, don't hang your hat on that.

Even if he does not win, commercial real estate is going to bomb. Travel and hotels will probably never return to pre-COVID levels because of less corporate travel thanks to ZOOM. Tighter restrictions on travel and social distancing measures will push the price of airline tickets up and drive profit margins down.

You guys are some very, very optimistic people. me saying 2023-2024 is actually pretty optimistic.
 
#10,738
#10,738
Rasputin_Vol said:
If Biden gets in and starts raising taxes, don't hang your hat on that.

Even if he does not win, commercial real estate is going to bomb. Travel and hotels will probably never return to pre-COVID levels because of less corporate travel thanks to ZOOM. Tighter restrictions on travel and social distancing measures will push the price of airline tickets up and drive profit margins down.

You guys are some very, very optimistic people. me saying 2023-2024 is actually pretty optimistic.
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It’s all back by next summer. America will be cruisin’ again.
 
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#10,741
#10,741
Rasputin_Vol said:
I'll take that bet. I think FAANGs only "crash" if the money printing stops and/or this QAnon nonsense actually does take legs and you see a massive rejection of these social media outlets.
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Perfect example of what I'm talking about here.Why in the world is the FED buying corporate debt from the most cash flush company out there.

The Fed is buying some of the biggest companies’ bonds, raising questions over why

Disclosures filed this week surrounding its credit facilities show the Fed is not only buying the bonds of struggling companies hit hard by the coronavirus pandemic but also some of the stalwarts of American industry — Microsoft, Visa and Home Depot just to name three companies whose debt the Fed holds directly.

The Fed holds an expansive list of other companies indirectly, including names like Apple and Goldman Sachs, through exchange-traded funds it has purchased.
Click to expand...
 
#10,742
#10,742
Rasputin_Vol said:
Your optimism is pretty scarry right now. After everything we've seen so far, there is no way you can hang your hat on anything that is being said right now. No guarantee of a vaccine. The election... maybe a long drawn out election like 2000. China. Money printing. Bankruptcies.

Keep in mind, before COVID, this economy was in a bubble waiting for a pin. The world record money printing essentially propped up some of these zombie companies, but for the most part, they are still in bad financial shape.
Click to expand...
I'm not hanging my hat on anything being said but rather observing market behavior + the Fed safety net.

Certainly some of the companies bid up during the rebound could falter, but what makes you think the big ones will crash? What is the "pin" that pops them?
 
#10,744
#10,744
Velo Vol said:
I'm not hanging my hat on anything being said but rather observing market behavior + the Fed safety net.

Certainly some of the companies bid up during the rebound could falter, but what makes you think the big ones will crash? What is the "pin" that pops them?
Click to expand...
The post you quoted spelled out several of the pins that could pop it.

Rasputin_Vol said:
Your optimism is pretty scarry right now. After everything we've seen so far, there is no way you can hang your hat on anything that is being said right now. No guarantee of a vaccine. The election... maybe a long drawn out election like 2000. China. Money printing. Bankruptcies.

Keep in mind, before COVID, this economy was in a bubble waiting for a pin. The world record money printing essentially propped up some of these zombie companies, but for the most part, they are still in bad financial shape.
Click to expand...
 
#10,745
#10,745
85SugarVol said:
People are already starting to travel again.

By NEXT summer? We’ll have a vaccine by then. Even without one, this citizenry won’t stay down that long.
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I really hope youre correct. Im expecting a 2-3 year recovery at minimum and wouldn't be shocked if it took 5. I also think who wins on Nov 3 will play a huge role in how fast we recover.
 
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#10,746
#10,746
85SugarVol said:
Why on earth would a vaccine cause FAANG to crash?

Forget about Amazon crashing. That’s just dumb.
How would Apple be negatively impacted?
How would Google be negatively impacted?

I guess I could buy Netflix taking a hit.
And it is only a matter of time for Facebook.

But no vaccine is going to crash AMZN, AAPL, MSFT, or GOOG
Click to expand...

Ask yourself this: What caused these stocks to skyrocket since the beginning of the year?

They largely went up because people:

(1) Shopped from home; and
(2) Had more free time on their hands.

When CV19 goes down, they go down. AMZN and NFLX will lead the way.
 
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#10,748
#10,748
85SugarVol said:
Some mom & pops for sure will never come back.

But the Airlines, Cruiselines, Hotels, Themeparks, & most Restaurants will all bounce back.

Watch the narrative change overnight if Biden wins in November. But regardless, they’ll all be back eventually.
Click to expand...

Eventually yes, they will all be back but it could take awhile and I can see lower levels of investment in all.
 
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