stock market was up today...

#14,051
#14,051
05_never_again said:
You're arguing with a brick wall, man. That guy comes into threads, says you're wrong, demands evidence/support for your opinion, and when you provide it to him he scoffs and says you're stupid for believing that. It's pointless. He argues from ideology and will never change his mind.
Click to expand...

I laughed at this too long for some odd reason.
 
#14,052
#14,052
BreatheUT said:
I'm suspecting a recession.
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How? Either one of two things will likely happen:
1. A bunch of speculators in real estate get washed out and property values drop
2. A bunch of speculators that fully owned their property, but had it valued at X now own an asset with a depreciated value.

Unlike in America where inflated asset prices are used for leanding or equity loans on a large scale, the same isn't near the same in terms of scale in China.

So again, while the real estate speculators get washed out, the industrial sector will still be turning out widgets. And, those in China that cannot afford a home now might see some buying opportunities.
 
#14,054
#14,054
05_never_again said:
You're arguing with a brick wall, man. That guy comes into threads, says you're wrong, demands evidence/support for your opinion, and when you provide it to him he scoffs and says you're stupid for believing that. It's pointless. He argues from ideology and will never change his mind.
Click to expand...
Hey, Einstein. You tell me how 80 million housing units equates to housing 3 billion people.
 
#14,056
#14,056
www.reuters.com

Even China's 1.4 billion population can't fill all its vacant homes, former official says

China's property sector, once the pillar of the economy, has slumped since 2021 when real estate giant China Evergrande Group defaulted on its debt obligations following a clampdown on new borrowing.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com

That does not count the numerous residential projects that have already been sold but not yet completed due to cash-flow problems, or the multiple homes purchased by speculators in the last market upturn in 2016 that remain vacant, which together make up the bulk of unused space, experts estimate.

"How many vacant homes are there now? Each expert gives a very different number, with the most extreme believing the current number of vacant homes are enough for 3 billion people," said He Keng, 81, a former deputy head of the statistics bureau.
 
#14,057
#14,057
Rasputin_Vol said:
We have a significant amount of debt overseas in the form of treasuries and currency.


China has a trade surplus. We don't.
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The American people own most of the debt. Far too much debt, but still.

Don't even go acting like China is in good shape, because they are not. That trade surplus is being reigned in along by partisan lines, slowly but surely.
 
#14,058
#14,058
norrislakevol said:
The American people own most of the debt. Far too much debt, but still.

Don't even go acting like China is in good shape, because they are not. That trade surplus is being reigned in along by partisan lines, slowly but surely.
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I'm not saying their in good shape. I'm simply pointing out that they are in a better situation than most of the doom and gloomers make it out to be. Also, the very same criticism hurled at China's economic situation are even more applicable to us.
 
#14,059
#14,059
Thunder Good-Oil said:
Per Fortune, enough space for 3 billion people.

finance.yahoo.com

How many ‘vacant homes’ does China have right now? A former statistics official has an eye-opening prediction

China’s housing oversupply is far worse than previously reported, the country’s former statistics bureau deputy head says.
finance.yahoo.com finance.yahoo.com

They cited Reuters:

www.reuters.com

Even China's 1.4 billion population can't fill all its vacant homes, former official says

China's property sector, once the pillar of the economy, has slumped since 2021 when real estate giant China Evergrande Group defaulted on its debt obligations following a clampdown on new borrowing.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com
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Huh... China in need of more housing???

China Puts Money Behind Singapore Model in Major Housing Shift

China plans to take a page from Singapore’s social housing model to help end a multi-year property slump that’s hammered the nation’s consumer confidence and weighed on economic growth.
 
#14,060
#14,060
So, the big boys are finally starting to wake up. Need to also begin transitioning mfg out of China to other areas around the world.

finance.yahoo.com

Goldman’s Painful 2023 Lesson on China Forces Rethink of Emerging Markets

(Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s head of global currency, rates and emerging-markets strategy says he’s learned two main lessons from one of the biggest — and most-common — bad calls of 2023: the bet on post-pandemic China’s reopening boom.Most Read from BloombergGoldman’s Painful 2023...
finance.yahoo.com finance.yahoo.com
 
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#14,061
#14,061
Rasputin_Vol said:
Huh... China in need of more housing???

China Puts Money Behind Singapore Model in Major Housing Shift

China plans to take a page from Singapore’s social housing model to help end a multi-year property slump that’s hammered the nation’s consumer confidence and weighed on economic growth.
Click to expand...
Not so sure about more housing as China has new cities it has built that are virtually vacant. Sounds more like trying to keep the low income pacified with rennovated digs while trying to spend their way out of their current real estate malaise.
 
#14,063
#14,063
Vol737 said:
Not so sure about more housing as China has new cities it has built that are virtually vacant. Sounds more like trying to keep the low income pacified with rennovated digs while trying to spend their way out of their current real estate malaise.
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you ever check out The Line in Saudi Arabia? like what in the world.
 
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#14,068
#14,068
Vol737 said:
As you know from this and the thread in the pub, I got out of China a long time ago. These guys are the worst partners for trade, trust and transparency. Worthless.
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Exactly. I don’t know why our leaders don’t incentivise our companies to get the hell out of that train wreck of a country. The CCP is horrible and shouldn’t be supported in any way. Let them protect their physical supply channels themselves and stop buying their crap. The CCP would implode without US support.
 
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#14,074
#14,074
I'm sure a couple of posters on the left will be along shortly to tell us how the debt doesn't matter and that any problems are waaay out in the future. The shock and awe will be when everything takes it in the shorts....Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, public pensions, the .gov targeting 401K's and IRAs, means testing and a truck load of massive new taxes never before dreamed of. To the people that aren't paying attention or ignoring the warnings wrt national debt, they are going to take a giant s**t when they see just how brutal the solution will be from kicking the can so far down the road and believing the taxpayers can shoulder incessant spending. Welcome to your .gov trying to help. All they did was bend you over....and you didn't even see it coming.

finance.yahoo.com

A $34 trillion national debt? You ain’t seen nothing yet.

The national debt hit a new record high — and will keep doing so, maybe for decades.
finance.yahoo.com finance.yahoo.com
 
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#14,075
#14,075
Many of you guys really know investing and have done well...i think some of you even get their primary source of income from their investments rather than having to work for the man.
Please weigh in on this one folks:

Its a new year and the Fed said they're gonna cut rates 3x...BUT its an election year as well. What do you guys think the market will do this year ?



Extra credit: IF the Dimwits somehow manage to disqualify Trump...which is the ONLY scenario in which he is NOT our president elect in November...is there any way possible the market doesn't tank with another Dimwit in office? I think our economy will roar with Trump in office, but don't see a scenario where anyone but him avoids a serious recession because their garbage policies and drunken spending simply do not work.
 
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