stock market was up today...

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Many of you guys really know investing and have done well...i think some of you even get their primary source of income from their investments rather than having to work for the man.
Please weigh in on this one folks:

Its a new year and the Fed said they're gonna cut rates 3x...BUT its an election year as well. What do you guys think the market will do this year ?



Extra credit: IF the Dimwits somehow manage to disqualify Trump...which is the ONLY scenario in which he is NOT our president elect in November...is there any way possible the market doesn't tank with another Dimwit in office? I think our economy will roar with Trump in office, but don't see a scenario where anyone but him avoids a serious recession because their garbage policies and drunken spending simply do not work.

If Biden wins then Kamala will be POTUS soon after. As long as the House of Reps doesn’t flip it might not be as bad as that sounds. However if we’re targeted by an adversary in any big way the markets could crumble.

The Fed only sets the short term rates. What happens with mortgages and LT corporate debt will be more impactful. Each Fed rate cut could see some near term “sell the news” equity share movements.

The NASDAQ might be dead money in 2024. Since it’s a cap weighted the biggest names carried it with the huge up move. Health care and energy are often mentioned as possible outperforming sectors HOWEVER Big Pharma makes up the biggest piece of HC and BOTH the Ds and Rs love to threaten them during election cycles. Medicare/Medicaid cuts have already been happening so more of that can’t be good for them.

You never know when big rallies will begin so staying long and averaging new money into equities over time is a solid strategy.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

The Biden administration is pushing Spirit Airlines into bankruptcy rather than allowing them to combine with JetBlue and having a viable competitor to United, Delta, American, and Southwest.

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

WOW... this is probably one of the most deceptive articles I've seen written in a while. Read the headline, and then read down in the story.

Retail sales jumped 0.7% in March, much higher than expected

Rising inflation in March didn't deter consumers, who continued shopping at a more rapid pace than anticipated, the Commerce Department reported Monday.

OK, so the initial impression most people would take away from this is that in spite of inflation, American consumers are still out buying clothes, going to movies and ball games and buying big ticket electronics. OK...

But then you get to here on further down...

A rise in gas prices helped push the headline retail sales number higher, with sales up 2.1% on the month at service stations. However, the biggest growth area for the month was online sales, up 2.7%, while miscellaneous retailers saw an increase of 2.1%.

Multiple categories did report declines in sales for the month: Sporting goods, hobbies, musical instruments and books posted a 1.8% decrease, while clothing stores were off 1.6%, and electronics and appliances saw a 1.2% drop.

So consumers having to spend more on energy is now being used to control a narrative. I suppose GDP will also show growth based on higher energy costs? When I see the word "shopping", I think of people going to the mall or the retail stores making purchases. I don't think of "shopping" being me going to the gas station or me paying my electric/gas bill.

 

[508mikey]

WOW... this is probably one of the most deceptive articles I've seen written in a while. Read the headline, and then read down in the story.

Retail sales jumped 0.7% in March, much higher than expected


OK, so the initial impression most people would take away from this is that in spite of inflation, American consumers are still out buying clothes, going to movies and ball games and buying big ticket electronics. OK...

But then you get to here on further down...



So consumers having to spend more on energy is now a being used to control a narrative. I suppose GDP will also show growth based on higher energy costs? When I see the word "shopping", I think of people going to the mail or the retail stores making purchases. I don't think of "shopping" being me going to the gas station or me paying my electric/gas bill.

They got to make the libs look good so Potato head gets re elected

 

[Vol737]

WOW... this is probably one of the most deceptive articles I've seen written in a while. Read the headline, and then read down in the story.

Retail sales jumped 0.7% in March, much higher than expected


OK, so the initial impression most people would take away from this is that in spite of inflation, American consumers are still out buying clothes, going to movies and ball games and buying big ticket electronics. OK...

But then you get to here on further down...



So consumers having to spend more on energy is now a being used to control a narrative. I suppose GDP will also show growth based on higher energy costs? When I see the word "shopping", I think of people going to the mail or the retail stores making purchases. I don't think of "shopping" being me going to the gas station or me paying my electric/gas bill.

I posted in another thread the most ridiculous thing about inflation numbers is leaving out food and energy, only focusing on core inflation. So I guess at least this article is making the point (finally) that food and energy are important factors wrt inflation relative to consumer spending. We (consumers) are repeating history from prior to the financial crisis, too. Consumer debt levels are enormous. Shocking, I know. You can almost, if not certainly, write the ending to this from experience.

 

[508mikey]

EV stock is way down

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

The leftists are always criticizing oil or pharma or other companies for making a profit (with no clue what the context of the financials mean by those greedy businesses).

Walgreen’s shares are struggling. They’ve remained in underserved, poor communities. The policies of not prosecuting and punishing law breakers could mean that Walgreens is forced to close those stores with the rampant theft. Crickets.

 

[SpaceCoastVol]

The leftists are always criticizing oil or pharma or other companies for making a profit (with no clue what the context of the financials mean by those greedy businesses).

Walgreen’s shares are struggling. They’ve remained in underserved, poor communities. The policies of not prosecuting and punishing law breakers could mean that Walgreens is forced to close those stores with the rampant theft. Crickets.

When your inventory is allowed by the legal system to be taken out your front door without fear of prosecution or restitution for the thieves, the math isn't hard.

Vote Democrat. For a glimpse of their utopia, I suggest any major city in California.

 

[Vol737]

The leftists are always criticizing oil or pharma or other companies for making a profit (with no clue what the context of the financials mean by those greedy businesses).

Walgreen’s shares are struggling. They’ve remained in underserved, poor communities. The policies of not prosecuting and punishing law breakers could mean that Walgreens is forced to close those stores with the rampant theft. Crickets.

Read an article today saying Walgreens was closing approximately 25% of their 8,600 stores nationwide. That’s enormous. I’ll try to find it again and repost.

Edit: Sorry, said Walgreens has yet to determine how many of the 25% of underperforming stores will close. Will still be a big number for the reasons you cited. More to come in the retail space.

Walgreens cuts EPS guidance, plans to close more stores

Walgreens is closing several stores and pulling back on VillageMD locations as it restructures the company.

finance.yahoo.com

 

[85SugarVol]

How woke capitalists’ gravy train came to a juddering halt

When Mark Carney corralled 450 finance companies to tackle climate change at Cop26, it seemed like his crowning achievement.

uk.finance.yahoo.com

 

[marcusluvsvols]

If Biden wins then Kamala will be POTUS soon after. As long as the House of Reps doesn’t flip it might not be as bad as that sounds. However if we’re targeted by an adversary in any big way the markets could crumble.

The Fed only sets the short term rates. What happens with mortgages and LT corporate debt will be more impactful. Each Fed rate cut could see some near term “sell the news” equity share movements.

The NASDAQ might be dead money in 2024. Since it’s a cap weighted the biggest names carried it with the huge up move. Health care and energy are often mentioned as possible outperforming sectors HOWEVER Big Pharma makes up the biggest piece of HC and BOTH the Ds and Rs love to threaten them during election cycles. Medicare/Medicaid cuts have already been happening so more of that can’t be good for them.

You never know when big rallies will begin so staying long and averaging new money into equities over time is a solid strategy.

Super 6 month late "thank you" for answering and helping me with several questions over the years here. Really appreciate your insight.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Super 6 month late "thank you" for answering and helping me with several questions over the years here. Really appreciate your insight.

Thanks. Key takeaway is that it’s really difficult to consistently outperform the market averages over time. Going with broad based, tax efficient (when appropriate), low fee funds is a smart approach. And to not try to time markets but go with the often repeated strategy of how long you’re in investments being important.

Diversification is extremely important as well. Holding the right funds (ETFs usually) as core investments will provide the diversification.

Owning individual stocks, especially smaller names, can be very speculative. So it’s smart to measure what percentage a person might want to include those. It’s amazing how often really good companies (or products) eventually fail or lose lots of value. Circuit City - gone. Steinmart - gone. Novell. Enron. Scripps Networks. Intel and Cisco - one time best of the best techs tgat are now below average. Walgreen’s - stock has now been dead money for decades. Whirlpool - they were doing great and buying up competitors left and right. Now WHR has been a bad investment for a while. UPS is way down, but I still think that they are going to do well. UPS has recently been hit with an expensive labor agreement, they always struggle when fuel costs rise, and Amazon is going to be a threat to build up their own massive fleet. But they won’t have to renegotiate labor for several years now.

Slow and steady wins the race.

 

[vol94]

Thanks. Key takeaway is that it’s really difficult to consistently outperform the market averages over time. Going with broad based, tax efficient (when appropriate), low fee funds is a smart approach. And to not try to time markets but go with the often repeated strategy of how long you’re in investments being important.

Diversification is extremely important as well. Holding the right funds (ETFs usually) as core investments will provide the diversification.

Owning individual stocks, especially smaller names, can be very speculative. So it’s smart to measure what percentage a person might want to include those. It’s amazing how often really good companies (or products) eventually fail or lose lots of value. Circuit City - gone. Steinmart - gone. Novell. Enron. Scripps Networks. Intel and Cisco - one time best of the best techs tgat are now below average. Walgreen’s - stock has now been dead money for decades. Whirlpool - they were doing great and buying up competitors left and right. Now WHR has been a bad investment for a while. UPS is way down, but I still think that they are going to do well. UPS has recently been hit with an expensive labor agreement, they always struggle when fuel costs rise, and Amazon is going to be a threat to build up their own massive fleet. But they won’t have to renegotiate labor for several years now.

Slow and steady wins the race.

So I invest heavily in my 401k and have another 10 yrs before retiring.

I decided to open an E*Trade account and will deposit $100 or so per month. What do you recommend buying?

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

So I invest heavily in my 401k and have another 10 yrs before retiring.

I decided to open an E*Trade account and will deposit $100 or so per month. What do you recommend buying?

VTI and/or VOO by Vanguard are solid choices. Maybe add QQQ if the underlying average (NASDAQ) pulls back. You do not need a Vanguard account to buy those Vanguard ETFs. You can easily buy those ETF shares in an E*trade account.

VTI might be the better opportunity right now if the economy does well. VOO excludes smaller companies and tracks the S&P 500. VTI is a total (US) stock fund with 3,000-4,000 companies (including exposure to small and mid-cap companies).

I’d maybe go equal amounts in VTI and in VOO. Vanguard has very low fees on these (which they take out of the fund assets - investors do not send them a payment).

Another basic rule is to not panic when the investments fall in value. They will absolutely at times as they move in cycles. Nobody can predict when the tops and bottoms are hit. Be patient instead. Putting money in consistently EVERY month is an excellent approach. It’s called dollar cost averaging and the beauty of doing that is that when fund share prices fall, you purchase more shares with the same amount of money.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

VTI vs. VOO

Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI) and Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) are two of more than 80 ETF offerings from Vanguard, an investment giant with $8.1 trillion in assets under management as of December 2022. What Is VTI? VTI features large-, mid- and small-cap stocks across a variety of secto

www.forbes.com

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

The Invesco equal weighted S & P 500 ETF is another good idea. The non-weighted S & P 500 ETFs are heavily skewed to just a handful of very large tech companies. Apple, Amazon, Google (Alohabet), Microsoft, NVIDIA. Facebook (Meta).

Symbol is RSP.

The 0.20% expense ratio is very good.

Invesco | Product Detail | Invesco S&P 500® Equal Weight ETF

www.invesco.com

 

[85SugarVol]

Thanks. Key takeaway is that it’s really difficult to consistently outperform the market averages over time. Going with broad based, tax efficient (when appropriate), low fee funds is a smart approach. And to not try to time markets but go with the often repeated strategy of how long you’re in investments being important.

Diversification is extremely important as well. Holding the right funds (ETFs usually) as core investments will provide the diversification.

Owning individual stocks, especially smaller names, can be very speculative. So it’s smart to measure what percentage a person might want to include those. It’s amazing how often really good companies (or products) eventually fail or lose lots of value. Circuit City - gone. Steinmart - gone. Novell. Enron. Scripps Networks. Intel and Cisco - one time best of the best techs tgat are now below average. Walgreen’s - stock has now been dead money for decades. Whirlpool - they were doing great and buying up competitors left and right. Now WHR has been a bad investment for a while. UPS is way down, but I still think that they are going to do well. UPS has recently been hit with an expensive labor agreement, they always struggle when fuel costs rise, and Amazon is going to be a threat to build up their own massive fleet. But they won’t have to renegotiate labor for several years now.

Slow and steady wins the race.

Good advice. Some of my older positions are from ‘09 & ‘10.

Time in the market usually beats timing the market.

Research a quality offering.
Buy shares consistently over time.
And… hooooooold!

 

[85SugarVol]

VTI and/or VOO by Vanguard are solid choices. Maybe add QQQ if the underlying average (NASDAQ) pulls back. You do not need a Vanguard account to buy those Vanguard ETFs. You can easily buy those ETF shares in an E*trade account.

VTI might be the better opportunity right now if the economy does well. VOO excludes smaller companies and tracks the S&P 500. VTI is a total (US) stock fund with 3,000-4,000 companies (including exposure to small and mid-cap companies).

I’d maybe go equal amounts in VTI and in VOO. Vanguard has very low fees on these (which they take out of the fund assets - investors do not send them a payment).

Another basic rule is to not panic when the investments fall in value. They will absolutely at times as they move in cycles. Nobody can predict when the tops and bottoms are hit. Be patient instead. Putting money in consistently EVERY month is an excellent approach. It’s called dollar cost averaging and the beauty of doing that is that when fund share prices fall, you purchase more shares with the same amount of money.

Where we headed in the next 12-24 months?

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Where we headed in the next 12-24 months?

That’s sure not an easy one to predict. And I don’t claim to be anbive average at understanding and deciphering macro-economics.

But, interest rate cuts should be coming which makes debt/bonds more attractive as investments.

As far as equities giant tech companies, especially when they can claim AI exposure, have already run up big. It might be a good time to rotate into industrial type of stocks. But some of those names have done well already. Even so, materials (Martin Marietta) could have a nice multi year run as the Inflation Reduction Act spending ramps up. Healthcare should have a floor from the aging boomer demographics and many names have lagged recently.

Obviously the national debt and getting to a balanced budget (and then a surplus) is a major consideration. Interest on the ND is now our biggest expense item.

Another major concern is the labor shortages. It seems like we should be able to fill jobs with an orderly immigration process if our elected office holders would work together. We don’t need the southern border to be illegally overrun. We need to not be obstructive with regulations to bring in workers that want to do those jobs.

Energy will be another challenge. EVs, AI servers, and crypto mining alone will tax our production and transmission infrastructure. The XLE and XLU ETFs could outperform over the next decade with those things in addition to just normal growth. It’s really time to get the nuke industry back in play. There’s zero chance that green/renewables alone can meet the growing demand.

12-24 months? Hard to say where we’re going with domestic politics, tariffs, China, Taiwan, North Korea, Iran, Russia, Israel, etc.

I’m buying/holding equities of all types and hope that there won’t be anything resembling a 3rd world war.

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

Another major concern is the labor shortages. It seems like we should be able to fill jobs with an orderly immigration process if our elected office holders would work together. We don’t need the southern border to be illegally overrun. We need to not be obstructive with regulations to bring in workers that want to do those jobs.

Why is it a good idea to fill labor shortages with immigration? It drives down wages for the indigenous workforce and it alters national demographics.

12-24 months? Hard to say where we’re going with domestic politics, tariffs, China, Taiwan, North Korea, Iran, Russia, Israel, etc.

If we would mind our own business and stop trying to destabilize the globe, all of those issues would work themselves out.

I’m buying/holding equities of all types and hope that there won’t be anything resembling a 3rd world war.

The Hope Strategy

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Why is it a good idea to fill labor shortages with immigration? It drives down wages for the indigenous workforce and it alters national demographics.


If we would mind our own business and stop trying to destabilize the globe, all of those issues would work themselves out.


The Hope Strategy

We haven’t been birthing enough workers to fill all of the needed positions. Importing labor is an economic advantage not every developed country has. We’re far from depressing fair wages due to an oversupply of legal workers.

We invest capital around the world with willing partners. It’s not unreasonable to protect those investments. We could be complete isolationists and be fine. But the rest of the world would be a dumpster fire. Destabilize the globe? You must have quite the collection of tin foil hats.

Shut up.

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

We haven’t been birthing enough workers to fill all of the needed positions. Importing labor is an economic advantage not every developed country has. We’re far from depressing fair wages due to an oversupply of legal workers.

Then why not address that issue? Do you even know why American birth rates are down or do you even GAF?

We invest capital around the world with willing partners. It’s not unreasonable to protect those investments. We could be complete isolationists and be fine. But the rest of the world would be a dumpster fire. Destabilize the globe? You must have quite the collection of tin foil hats.

Shut up.

But we don't do s#!t to protect our own infrastructure investments or native born Americans.

Shut up.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Then why not address that issue? Do you even know why American birth rates are down or do you even GAF?


But we don't do s#!t to protect our own infrastructure investments or native born Americans.

Shut up.

One reason that birth rates are down is because kids have become liabilities instead of free labor. Also birth control and the move away from traditional family values. You can’t force women to have children. It’s not simply a US issue. Japan has been dealing with an aging population for decades. It doesn’t matter whether or not I GAF.

We certainly do protect our own infrastructure. We multiple levels of government spending huge amounts on military and policing. Some Democrat run cities did nothing when criminal elements were destroying government buildings, but those are the outliers.

When all you can do is to troll for reactions most won’t miss your “input”.

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

One reason that birth rates are down is because kids have become liabilities instead of free labor. Also birth control and the move away from traditional family values. You can’t force women to have children. It’s not simply a US issue. Japan has been dealing with an aging population for decades. It doesn’t matter whether or not I GAF.

Everything you say is true. Those "western values" (even in Japan and South Korea).

So again, address that issue instead of importing labor that will change demographics and drive down wages for the indigenous population.

We certainly do protect our own infrastructure. We multiple levels of government spending huge amounts on military and policing. Some Democrat run cities did nothing when criminal elements were destroying government buildings, but those are the outliers.

When all you can do is to troll for reactions most won’t miss your “input”.

There is no evidence that the people ruling over us GAF about maintaining and growing our infrastructure.

 

[BigOrangeMojo]

We still haven't got over inflationary labor shock from 2020 and 2021 unemployment bills. What would inflation look like if "natives" did all the ag and construction work?