Stop with the complaining over 3* recruits

#51
#51
BloodRunsR&B said:
Thanks! Love a good discussion!

On your first point, fair enough, I figured you were talking to the "stars matter" crowd an just answered accordingly :)

On your second, what happens to the other 4 and 5 stars? I assume those 275 players become upstanding members of society. Same as the 925 3 stars that dont get drafted, and that's the point. There is no way around the fact that if you have a 4/5 star player and a 3 star player, the odds are MORE than twice as good that the 4/5 star will go to the league than the three star.

That leads to my answer to your third and last question, why would 15 3 stars only produce 1 NFL talent? Well, because those are the statistics. It IS possible that Butch beats the statistics and has found 5 or 6 of the 3 stars that will go to the league. If fact, I agree that he probably beats the statistics, as would most Top 30 schools. That's why I said he might have 3, and tripling the statiscal yield is very generous. My point was that if your argument is such, the why wouldn't he beat the statistical yield on 4/5 stars as well? (Thus rendering 4/5 stars more desirable, even under your model)

Basically, it is inescapable that ratings do matter (EDIT: when predicting future acheivement). The fact that stars matter does NOT mean that Butch has a poor class, but it DOES mean that his margin for error with the development of these players has narrowed considerably if the goal is championships; he must have between 4-6 of these 3 stars grow and develop into NFL caliber players and the chances of that are lower than if they were rated higher. Not impossible, just lower.
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Great response. Loved it. Had a little bit of everything in it. Thought provoking and humorous (I assume they become upstanding members of society). :good!:
 
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#52
#52
Vols2DaWall said:
It's just basic statistics. There is no causal relationship between stars and getting drafted. It's all about probabilities. Generally, 4 and 5 stars have better odds of making it to the NFL than 3 stars.


Just because you are a 3 star does not mean you cannot make the league. Just because you are a 4/5 does not guarantee that you will make it to the NFL. It is just more likely (higher probability) that a 4/5 star rated player will make it to the NFL compared to a 2/3 star player.
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I would disagree, it really has nothing to do with how many stars you have period, its your performance in College that matter is you go to the NFL........duh, its just a good correlation that schools with more 4/5 players perform better than those with less, there are always those schools that sit outside the bell curve that have success once in a blue moon, but programs that have consistently performed better have 4/5 star players........that is all.

Go Vols!!:loco:
 
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#55
#55
So some 3 star players end up becoming stars in the NFL...well that's great.

But in the end, some will also underachieve while the vast majority will pan out to be 3 star caliber players.

Same can be said about 4 and 5 star players...some overachieve, some underachieve, many live up to their rating.

So since most will live up to their rating or even overachieve then count me in on preferring higher rated players overall.
 
#57
#57
People are missing the point. 4 and 5 stars are the most sought after recruits with the largest offer lists. That is all that matters for this argument. Other teams like Bama are pulling in the most coveted players. Period.

There is something to be said for spotting underrated talent (which we are good at) and developing talent, but that is a completely different argument. Stop pretending like we are choosing not to take 5 star recruits.
 
#58
#58
1974Vol said:
Keep in mind that these guys for the 17 class are just now starting their senior HS season. So many currently rated 3 stars will be 4's or may fall back to 2's by the end of their senior year. Also there is a numeric rating inside the star rating so some 3's are barely 3's and some are only fractions of a point from being 4's. Also as many others have stated some of our commits may be recruited over as we draw close to NSD. Moreover as many have pointed out many top recrunits will wait until late to commit and will consider how well the Vols play in their decision. My point being I would wait until February before declaring the 17 class a boom or bust.
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Your first two sentences say all that needs to be said. Yet many on here either will not or fail to possess the simple mental acuity to understand it. If we were landing all kinds of 4-5* and they happened to get bumped down, then the same ones complaining now would be complaining about that.

Almost every player on the UT roster right now was recruited by Butch Jones. If Butch hasnt at least some sort of trust from Vol fans by now, then he likely never will.
 
#60
#60
The national champions the last 10 yrs were FILLED with 4/5* quality ballers.

Cincinnati fills up on the 3s.
 
#63
#63
I don't think our focus should be on players who become superstars in the NFL. We don't need NFL prototype players to be successful. Look at Alabama..they have a lot of player who get drafted, but many of them have not panned out as anything more than mediocre pros. Many 4-5* players don't have stellar careers and get drafted in the first round, but many of those same guys still did a more than serviceable job at the college level.

My point is we need successful college players who both fit our system and are better than about 80-90% of the people who play their position. I would make the argument that most players of this caliber are at least 4* players. If you look at our roster you will notice that a few of the 3* players have emerged and/or on the verge of having a significant role (Cam Sutton, Cory Vereen,Dylan Weisman, Josh Smith, Chance Hall, Ethan Wolfe, Jashon Robertson, Rashaun Gaulden, Malik Foreman, Emmanuel Mosley, Coleman Thomas). Yet, it must be noted that while not all, some of these guys emerged by simply being better than their 3* predecessor. They may not be the most talented any more, but will play because they have more gametime experience.

On the other hand there is a lot of the promise coming from our 4* players (Reeves-Maybin, Dobbs. Barnett, Hurd, Kirkland Jr, Kamara, Todd Kelly, Preston Williams, Drew Richmond, Shy Tuttle, Justin Martin, Kyle Phillips, Jack Jones, Mckenzie, ect). The percentage of 4*s showing potential get exceeds the percentage of 3*. At about the same time next year, the amount of 4* starters will be significantly more.

All this to say, yes we need 4* recruits. Yet, no need to worry because I strongly believe we have a sizeable amount of recruits who will be bumped up to a low 4* by the end of the season.As for the rest of the players who will be mostly deserving of 3*, they will probably and up going elsewhere.
 
#68
#68
LittleVol said:
No. NO.

That goes against your argument entirely. The premise - your premise - is that 4 stars or higher have a better chance at winning footbal games and playing in the NFL eventually.

So even if there are much more 3 stars... they are still 3 stars.

Plus with the limited roster spots in the NFL... that SHOULD mean more 4 stars or higher than anything else.

Put it this way, bigger blocks of ice will last longer than smaller ice cubes in the sun. So even if you have one big block ice versus 1 million cubes... the one blocj will last. While all million cubes will melt.

Numbers mean nothing in this argument...

Trust the coaches!!!!!!!!!!
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Huh?
 
#70
#70
volmanic said:
I have not posted on here in some time now, but I am seeing all over social media the bashing on our coaching staff because we have a total of 15 3* recruits for 2017. This post is not directed at any single person, it's just please stop and trust what our coaches are doing. It's easy for all of the armchair coaches to talk negatively about our coaching staff, and the talent they are bringing in.

So I thought I would do some research on some of the top NFL names, and where they were coming out of High School. This is just some of the names I found, and there were plenty more I could have added:

J.J. Watt- 2*

LeVeon Bell- 2*

Marcus Mariota- 3*

Antonio Brown- 2*

Aaron Rodgers- 3*

Cameron Sutton ( still in college) but was a 2*

Victor Cruz- 2*

Jordy Nelson- 2*

Chris Johnson- 2*

Julius Thomas- 2*

Demarcus Ware- Unrated

Ed Reed- Unrated

Eric Fisher- 2*

Tyler Eifert- 3*

Dontari Poe- 2*

Demarius Thomas- 3*

Malcolm Jenkins- 3*

Clay Matthews- Unrated


Trust our coaches!!! Go Vols!
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Teams win championships with 4 and 5 star players. History has proven this time and time again. I dont know why this is so hard for some to understand or accept as there's concrete metrics that prove it.

It's easy to cherry pick examples of players who played on different teams at different times and overachieved. Every team has their "Rudy's" but you can't field a whole team of them and expect to win. For every Cam Sutton there's 20 Jakob Johnson's.
 
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#71
#71
LittleVol said:
No. NO.

That goes against your argument entirely. The premise - your premise - is that 4 stars or higher have a better chance at winning footbal games and playing in the NFL eventually.

So even if there are much more 3 stars... they are still 3 stars.

Plus with the limited roster spots in the NFL... that SHOULD mean more 4 stars or higher than anything else.

Put it this way, bigger blocks of ice will last longer than smaller ice cubes in the sun. So even if you have one big block ice versus 1 million cubes... the one blocj will last. While all million cubes will melt.

Numbers mean nothing in this argument...

Trust the coaches!!!!!!!!!!
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I am dumber for having read this post.
 
#72
#72
Brave Volunteer said:
Teams win championships with 4 and 5 star players. History has proven this time and time again. I dont know why this is so hard for some to understand or accept as there's concrete metrics that prove it.

It's easy to cherry pick examples of players who played on different teams at different times and overachieved. Every team has their "Rudy's" but you can't field a whole team of them and expect to win. For every Cam Sutton there's 20 Jakob Johnson's.
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We dont have a team full of 3* guys
 
#73
#73
BigOrangeTrain said:
We dont have a team full of 3* guys
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No, you don't. Hence, UT is the favorite to win the East this year and have a shot at the CFP.

But, as other posters have said before, this current class is not quite at the same rating level as Butch's past classes. That doesn't mean that everyone needs to duck and cover because there's A LOT of time left.

However, were I a UT fan, I would be hoping for one of two things; either improvement in the ranking of a significant number of recruits (thus confirming that Btuch and staff are fantastic evaluators of talent like most of us believe), or that a significant attrition and replacement process occurs that raises the overall profile of the class.

Either way, Butch has already shown that he can recruit so the current class is somewhat confusing currently. I believe that there will occur some of each remedy I suggested, that 3-4 players will become 4 stars and that 3-4 players will be replaced by 4/5 stars. That would result in anywhere from half a class or more of 4 and 5 stars and a top 10 class.
 
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#74
#74
I agree with the OP in that we all need to calm down and trust our coaches. I do not agree that it is fine to have 90% 3 stars every year because a lot of them eventually make and star in the NFL. If there's one thing we do know about Coach Jones, it is that he has a plan. For whatever reason, securing commitments from all of these 3 stars this early in the process is part of his plan. He might just be hedging against the worst-case scenario in that everyone else we are recruiting that is higher-ranked goes elsewhere. I doubt that very much. I do have faith in the staff when it comes to recruiting. In the end, we'll have a great class, though some of us may not realize it until 2-3 years down the road.
 
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