Successful SEC Coaches in their 1st seasons...

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oregonvol

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#1
In search of a factual basis in which to judge Butch Jones' first season, I thought we could look at the first years of coaches who were hired in the SEC in this century, who ultimately ended up being successful at their schools.

I noted their embarrassing losses (which I categorize as either a loss to an opponent with significantly less talent or a loss to an opponent where you just got thoroughly drubbed by a mass of points) and big wins (which I categorize as upsets over opponents with significantly higher rankings and/or talent, or an absolute drubbing of a respectable opponent with similar talent/ranking).


Mark Richt, Georgia
previous team record: 8-4
record in 1st year: 8-4
Bad Losses: None
Big/Upset Wins: Tennessee (#6 at home, W 26-24)

Urban Meyer, Florida
previous team record: 7-5
record in 1st year: 9-3
Bad Losses: Alabama (L 31-3), South Carolina (L 30-22)
Big/Upset Wins: Florida State (decisive win over ranked rival, W 34-7)

Nick Saban, LSU
previous team record: 3-8
record in 1st year: 8-4
Bad Losses: Florida (L 41-9)
Big/Upset Wins: Tennessee (#11, W 38-31)


Nick Saban, Alabama
previous team record: 6-6
record in 1st year: 7-6
Bad Losses: Louisiana Monroe (L 17-12)
Big/Upset Wins: Tennessee (decisive win over ranked rival, W 41-17)

Les Miles, LSU
previous team record: 9-3
record in 1st year: 11-2
Bad Losses: none
Big/Upset Wins: Miami (decisive win over top 10 team, W 40-3)

Gene Chizik, Auburn
previous team record: 5-7
record in 1st year: 8-5
Bad Losses: None
Big/Upset Wins: None

Bobby Petrino, Arkansas
previous team record: 8-5
record in 1st year: 5-7
Bad Losses: Alabama (L 49-14), Texas (L 52-10), Florida (L 38-7)
Big/Upset Wins: LSU (W 31-30)

Steve Spurrier, South Carolina
previous team record: 6-5
record in 1st year: 7-5
Bad Losses: Auburn (L 48-7)
Big/Upset Wins: Tennessee (W 16-15), Florida (W 30-22)

James Franklin, Vanderbilt
previous team record: 2-10
record in 1st year: 6-7
Bad Losses: Alabama (L 34-0)
Big/Upset Wins: Wake Forest (W 41-7), *also close losses to Tennessee, Florida, Arkansas & Georgia, (all within a touchdown) notable simply because they are Vanderbilt, after all

...So what can we learn here? What stands out to me is that the majority had at least one bad, uncompetitive loss in their first season. But also, everyone except Chizik had either a big upset win or a decisive blowout over a talented team (or, in the case of Vanderbilt, at least a comparably or arguably more talented rival). Several coaches took over teams with losing records and all made it to a bowl in their 1st year. Out of 9 instances, only 1 coach (Petrino) failed to show improvement in their first year in either win/loss record or in victories over ranked rivals. Petrino is also the only one of the 9 to lose more than 1 game in blowout fashion.
 
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#2
#2
oregonvol said:
In search of a factual basis in which to judge Butch Jones' first season, I thought we could look at the first years of coaches who were hired in the SEC in this century, who ultimately ended up being successful at their schools.

I noted their embarrassing losses (which I categorize as either a loss to an opponent with significantly less talent or a loss to an opponent where you just got thoroughly drubbed by a mass of points) and big wins (which I categorize as upsets over opponents with significantly higher rankings and/or talent, or an absolute drubbing of a respectable opponent with similar talent/ranking).


Mark Richt, Georgia
previous team record: 8-4
record in 1st year: 8-4
Bad Losses: None
Big/Upset Wins: Tennessee (#6 at home, W 26-24)

Urban Meyer, Florida
previous team record: 7-5
record in 1st year: 9-3
Bad Losses: Alabama (L 31-3), South Carolina (L 30-22)
Big/Upset Wins: Florida State (decisive win over ranked rival, W 34-7)

Nick Saban, LSU
previous team record: 3-8
record in 1st year: 8-4
Bad Losses: Florida (L 41-9)
Big/Upset Wins: Tennessee (#11, W 38-31)


Nick Saban, Alabama
previous team record: 6-6
record in 1st year: 7-6
Bad Losses: Louisiana Monroe (L 17-12)
Big/Upset Wins: Tennessee (decisive win over ranked rival, W 41-17)

Les Miles, LSU
previous team record: 9-3
record in 1st year: 11-2
Bad Losses: none
Big/Upset Wins: Miami (decisive win over top 10 team, W 40-3)

Gene Chizik, Auburn
previous team record: 5-7
record in 1st year: 8-5
Bad Losses: None
Big/Upset Wins: None

Bobby Petrino, Arkansas
previous team record: 8-5
record in 1st year: 5-7
Bad Losses: Alabama (L 49-14), Texas (L 52-10), Florida (L 38-7)
Big/Upset Wins: LSU (W 31-30)

Steve Spurrier, South Carolina
previous team record: 6-5
record in 1st year: 7-5
Bad Losses: Auburn (L 48-7)
Big/Upset Wins: Tennessee (W 16-15), Florida (W 30-22)

James Franklin, Vanderbilt
previous team record: 2-10
record in 1st year: 6-7
Bad Losses: Alabama (L 34-0)
Big/Upset Wins: Wake Forest (W 41-7), *also close losses to Tennessee, Florida, Arkansas & Georgia, (all within a touchdown) notable simply because they are Vanderbilt, after all

...So what can we learn here? What stands out to me is that the majority had at least one bad, uncompetitive loss in their first season. But also, everyone except Chizik had either a big upset win or a decisive blowout over a talented team (or, in the case of Vanderbilt, at least a comparably or arguably more talented rival). Several coaches took over teams with losing records and all made it to a bowl in their 1st year. Out of 9 instances, only 1 coach (Petrino) failed to show improvement in their first year in either win/loss record or in victories over ranked rivals. Petrino is also the only one of the 9 to lose more than 1 game in blowout fashion.
Click to expand...

James Franklin doesn't deserve to be on that list of great coaches.
 
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#4
#4
1. James Franklin shouldn't be on that list - he has more work to do.

2. Everyone on that list inherited a much better roster/situation/schedule combo than B.Jones.
 
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#5
#5
What I think is so rare and unfortunate about our situation is that not only has Butch taken over a team that was 5-7, but there was actually some NFL talent that left early from that team.

As far as talent is concerned we have taken a large step back from last year overall. The defense may be a little better, but we don't have 3 clear cut NFL upperclassmen at skill positions. We also don't have any certainty at QB. Bray wasn't consistent or a leader, but he was talented and could make plays.

If Dooley were still here this is a 4-8 football team this year. Lets see what butch can do.
 
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#6
#6
I never said that James Franklin was great, but he has been successful. He's achieved more at Vanderbilt than any coach they have had in 50+ years. He's been to back to back bowl games. He won 9 games in year 2. He outrecruited Tennessee. Those are incredible achievements in two years at Vanderbilt.

Furthermore, I feel it is instructive to look at Franklin as a coach who inherited a tough situation. Butch fans want to argue that he should be given a pass for 3-4 years because of what he inherited. Well, Franklin inherited a 2-10 program and was competitive out of the gate.
 
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#7
#7
I think you have to look at more than just their w/l record. What kind of schedule did they have? I doubt many had the kind of schedule we have.
 
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#10
#10
Stevorino said:
1. James Franklin shouldn't be on that list - he has more work to do.

2. Everyone on that list inherited a much better roster/situation than B.Jones.
Click to expand...

The situation is obviously better but the rosters are completely debatable.

UT has no depth but a decent starting cadre.

Most of those teams had no depth and lackluster starters.
 
#11
#11
every situation is different. To try and simplify it down to win-loss in 1st year ignores so many factors
 
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#12
#12
oregonvol said:
Seriously? James Franklin inherited a better roster than Butch Jones? Wow.
Click to expand...

Sorry meant Roster/Situation combo.

Expectations
Strength of Schedule
Talent

But yes - I think when you look at the entire situation, BJ's is the most difficult by a pretty large margin. Some of those were walk-in and win situations (Meyer definitely).
 
#13
#13
oregonvol said:
But also, everyone except Chizik had either a big upset win or a decisive blowout over a talented team (or, in the case of Vanderbilt, at least a comparably or arguably more talented rival).
Click to expand...

If you've got a great coach I think the team should clearly overachieve expectations against a superior foe in at least one or two games, even in the first season.
 
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#15
#15
I'm not going to go back and research it, but I'm pretty sure the South Carolina team that Spurrier inherited had much lower recruiting rankings over the previous 4 years than UT has had. Ditto Saban's 1st LSU team. But of course we can't look at recruiting rankings or win/loss record or anything factual when making excuses for Butch.

Nope, it's the same as it was for Dooley. He inherited the worst situation ever in the history of football and we can't expect him to make any progress until his contract is up.

And if you're determined to bury your head in the sand or up the AD's a$$, that's cool. This thread was intended for people who like to use logic and facts and actually evaluate a coaching staff. If you don't believe in evaluations, go check out one of those "Open Letter to..." threads, instead.
 
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#16
#16
Stevorino said:
Sorry meant Roster/Situation combo.

Expectations
Strength of Schedule
Talent

But yes - I think when you look at the entire situation, BJ's is the most difficult by a pretty large margin. Some of those were walk-in and win situations (Meyer definitely).
Click to expand...

So you are on here arguing that Butch Jones should be given a pass this year (in, other word, a year with no expectations) because he came into a situation with too many expectations? What. The. F#$%.

Oh man, this place really is through the looking glass, isn't it?
 
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#18
#18
oregonvol said:
Yeah, that's why I looked at 9 situations and listed categories beyond simple win/loss records. Thanks.
Click to expand...

not really since the situation UT was in is hard to measure with stats. For example, to even pretend the situation CBJ and Urban Meyer took over are comparable is ridiculous.
 
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#19
#19
oregonvol said:
I'm not going to go back and research it, but I'm pretty sure the South Carolina team that Spurrier inherited had much lower recruiting rankings over the previous 4 years than UT has had. Ditto Saban's 1st LSU team. But of course we can't look at recruiting rankings or win/loss record or anything factual when making excuses for Butch.

Nope, it's the same as it was for Dooley. He inherited the worst situation ever in the history of football and we can't expect him to make any progress until his contract is up.

And if you're determined to bury your head in the sand or up the AD's a$$, that's cool. This thread was intended for people who like to use logic and facts and actually evaluate a coaching staff. If you don't believe in evaluations, go check out one of those "Open Letter to..." threads, instead.
Click to expand...

Ok, then let's be blunt about what is on the roster.

No qb
No rb, at least not of high quality
Children at wr

No d-line
No speed at linebacker
No skills of any kind in the secondary except one guy.

No depth
A loser's mentality
Tradition. How is this a problem? Because people still get ready to play Tennessee. People sleep walk against vandy, miss state or other programs that may be struggling. Tennessee doesn't have that luxury. Tennessee may not get an oppponent's best, but the opponent isn't disinterested
 
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#20
#20
utvolpj said:
not really since the situation UT was in is hard to measure with stats. For example, to even pretend the situation CBJ and Urban Meyer took over are comparable is ridiculous.
Click to expand...

I never said the two were the same.

But to even pretend the talent level here is as bad as what Franklin inherited is even more ridiculous.
 
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#22
#22
oregonvol said:
I'm not going to go back and research it, but I'm pretty sure the South Carolina team that Spurrier inherited had much lower recruiting rankings over the previous 4 years than UT has had. Ditto Saban's 1st LSU team. But of course we can't look at recruiting rankings or win/loss record or anything factual when making excuses for Butch.

Nope, it's the same as it was for Dooley. He inherited the worst situation ever in the history of football and we can't expect him to make any progress until his contract is up.

And if you're determined to bury your head in the sand or up the AD's a$$, that's cool. This thread was intended for people who like to use logic and facts and actually evaluate a coaching staff. If you don't believe in evaluations, go check out one of those "Open Letter to..." threads, instead.
Click to expand...


this +100000000000

all of the teams listed showed improvement n had a statement game n year one.. butch has to do the same.

no excuses n no freaking year 0.
 
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#24
#24
this place is like most people with their kids.. oh my johnny has it so hard because u have no idea.what he goes thru but johnny across town has it better because he lives closer to school n park n river so quit picking on my.little johnny...lol

at some.point great leadership shows via something tangible n we need to expect that
 
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#25
#25
utvolpj said:
you compared them. My claim is they are not comparable which is valid.



moral victories and no wins over teams with a winning record shouldn't be the goal of anyone.
Click to expand...

Moral victories are better than getting beat by 45 points.

But, yeah getting to a bowl at Vanderbilt is no big deal. Sure.

So who do you want to compare Butch to? Should I have just used examples of unsuccessful SEC coaches? I could probably have found some there that would have fit your criteria. And then we could all sit back and say "Hey, we suck, but it's nobody's fault. Butch Jones is still dreamy." And then we can all hug. Or maybe we shouldn't compare him to anyone and just not have any standards at all? Then we can do like most everyone here did with Dooley and pretend everything is peachy while we keep sinking.

This is the SEC. He's getting paid at the top of his profession. It's perfectly valid to make comparisons and evaluations.
 
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