Successful SEC Coaches in their 1st seasons...

[oregonvol]

this place is like most people with their kids.. oh my johnny has it so hard because u have no idea.what he goes thru but johnny across town has it better because he lives closer to school n park n river so quit picking on my.little johnny...lol

at some.point great leadership shows via something tangible n we need to expect that

This, A thousand times this.

No one is expecting Jones to win a championship this year. Heck most would be happy with a first year that looked like Freeze's or Franklin's. But great coaches show progress. Great coaches give you more to hang your hat on than "he gets it". And, sorry, but to succeed in the SEC these days, you have to be great. They don't pay you 3 million dollars and then expect you to win participation trophies.

 

[WriterVol]

You looked at a few factors when there are thousands of factors. I haven't seen anyone on this thread say "Butch gets a pass because..." You keep jumping on the "you're making excuses" wagon. Excuses for what? Barring something monumentally stupid like a strip club incident or something like that, Jones is going to get at least three years here.

When you evaluate a coach, you don't look at one game or one season. Mostly it's about marked improvement. It's not about "if he does this, he's good" or "if he does this, he's bad." Everyone has their own feel for what they think will make him a success or a failure.

It's like with Dobbs and Ferguson. We haven't seen either of them, but quite a few posters on here are convinced one or the other of them is the next thing. No one knows. Even if they played in the first three games, there wouldn't be enough evidence.

Too many arguments on this board become an all or nothing. It's frustrating. Sometimes, most of the time, things are gray.

And I'm still not quite sure what you're driving at. If Jones doesn't get an upset victory this year, are you saying UT should cut him loose? After one season? Or are you just asking us all to prepare for two more years of mediocrity after this one if your metrics aren't met?

 

[KBVol]

Ok, then let's be blunt about what is on the roster.

No qb
No rb, at least not of high quality
Children at wr

No d-line
No speed at linebacker
No skills of any kind in the secondary except one guy.

No depth
A loser's mentality
Tradition. How is this a problem? Because people still get ready to play Tennessee. People sleep walk against vandy, miss state or other programs that may be struggling. Tennessee doesn't have that luxury. Tennessee may not get an oppponent's best, but the opponent isn't disinterested

Also, add 10....10 walk-ons on a roster of 70 that made the trip to Oregon. There are a lot if valid points OregonVol made, there are a lot of valid responses, in particular this one. The fact is, despite a decimated roster and an incredibly schedule, CBJ needs to show he can coach up this team and show great improvement quickly. I'm patient and am more than willing to circle September 2015 as the "moment of truth". But we need to see a competitive team able to pull a couple upsets, beat 95% of everyone they're supposed to over the next 2 years..... and never, ever, lose a game like they lost on Saturday again.

 

[DC Vol]

You looked at a few factors when there are thousands of factors. I haven't seen anyone on this thread say "Butch gets a pass because..." You keep jumping on the "you're making excuses" wagon. Excuses for what? Barring something monumentally stupid like a strip club incident or something like that, Jones is going to get at least three years here.

When you evaluate a coach, you don't look at one game or one season. Mostly it's about marked improvement. It's not about "if he does this, he's good" or "if he does this, he's bad." Everyone has their own feel for what they think will make him a success or a failure.

It's like with Dobbs and Ferguson. We haven't seen either of them, but quite a few posters on here are convinced one or the other of them is the next thing. No one knows. Even if they played in the first three games, there wouldn't be enough evidence.

Too many arguments on this board become an all or nothing. It's frustrating. Sometimes, most of the time, things are gray.

And I'm still not quite sure what you're driving at. If Jones doesn't get an upset victory this year, are you saying UT should cut him loose? After one season? Or are you just asking us all to prepare for two more years of mediocrity after this one if your metrics aren't met?

I think it's not that people are saying Furgeson/Dobbs will be UT's Manzeil... as much as UT fans are saying they can't be much worse than Worley.

Because this staff will stubbornly stick to a very ineffective read-option with Worley which he can't run. And Worley is missing wide-open receivers.

So why not take a QB to run the read-option if the coaches are going to insist on it regardless of if it works or not?

 

[utvolpj]

Moral victories are better than getting beat by 45 points.

all look the same on the w/l record

But, yeah getting to a bowl at Vanderbilt is no big deal. Sure.

2013 UT would go to a bowl with Vandy's 2011 schedule. Same can't be said for 2011 Vandy with UT's 2013 schedule

 

[Vol in Mich]

The Vols have only played three games. Why do so many of you have your panties in a wad. So far the season is what was expected, no suprises yet. If you want to compare coaches first seasons, at least wait till the season is over.

 

[KBVol]

I think it's not that people are saying Furgeson/Dobbs will be UT's Manzeil... as much as UT fans are saying they can't be much worse than Worley.

Because this staff will stubbornly stick to a very ineffective read-option with Worley which he can't run. And Worley is missing wide-open receivers.

So why not take a QB to run the read-option if the coaches are going to insist on it regardless of if it works or not?

I think after the first real test of the season, which was v Oregon, that the coaches have come to your conclusion. Worley can't make plays out of the read option evidently, and he's not effective making the throws this offense has to have. It's time to move on.

 

[WriterVol]

I think it's not that people are saying Furgeson/Dobbs will be UT's Manzeil... as much as UT fans are saying they can't be much worse than Worley.

Because this staff will stubbornly stick to a very ineffective read-option with Worley which he can't run. And Worley is missing wide-open receivers.

So why not take a QB to run the read-option if the coaches are going to insist on it regardless of if it works or not?

Sorry, I didn't mean to turn this into another QB discussion. I was just making parallels. I wasn't saying don't try something else. I was just saying there's no reason to get locked in on being convinced it's one or the other. Every school goes through QB battles, and UT has had its share.

Ainge/Schaeffer was one that looked great at the start, and neither of them brought the kind of success most fans were hoping for.

 

[99gator]

Also, add 10....10 walk-ons on a roster of 70 that made the trip to Oregon. There are a lot if valid points OregonVol made, there are a lot of valid responses, in particular this one. The fact is, despite a decimated roster and an incredibly schedule, CBJ needs to show he can coach up this team and show great improvement quickly. I'm patient and am more than willing to circle September 2015 as the "moment of truth". But we need to see a competitive team able to pull a couple upsets, beat 95% of everyone they're supposed to over the next 2 years..... and never, ever, lose a game like they lost on Saturday again.

Well, be prepared for the Georgia game.

They don't play at Oregon's pace, but if Georgia plays to their capability they will light up the scoreboard

 

[DiderotsGhost]

Good list. Though, I'd argue most of these comparisons aren't very apt for Butch. Most of these coaches walked into a situation with a significant amount of talent, where the previous coaching staff was underperforming (see Urban Meyer). Alternatively, some of these coaches walked into well-established situations. Les Miles took over for Saban. Petrino took over for Houston Nutt, who won 8 games and 10 games in the two years prior.

Spurrier took over OK situations (with potential) and slowly turned them into great situations. Saban turned around an Alabama squad with OK talent. Those are probably the closest similarities.

Turn-around jobs are probably the best thing to look at. Bob Stoops comes to mind, though, Jones probably doesn't have enough talent to wildly improve in Year 2 like Stoops. Year 3 might be a better gauge for Jones. I still think Jim Harbaugh is a good comparison. Harbaugh had a lot of difficulties to deal with in his first two years. He finally started to show on-the-field results in Year 3. Mack Brown at North Carolina is another one. His first two years were horrible (1-10 both years). Started to see progress in Year #3 and Year #4 and by Year #5, pushed UNC to 9-3.

This seems to be a consistent theme with successful turn-arounds; first two years are rough-going, but you start to see big results by Year 3 and Year 4.

 

[JohnMarxism]

Make comparisons and evaluations when the time is right

 

[WriterVol]

The Vols have only played three games. Why do so many of you have your panties in a wad. So far the season is what was expected, no suprises yet. If you want to compare coaches first seasons, at least wait till the season is over.

Yes, need more input.

I have no problems with discussions, but so often on message boards they turn into bickering or even straight out arguments. Keep it civil and try not to read too much into someone else's counter argument.

Now I sound like one of those people. "Can't we all just get along." Oh well.

 

[oregonvol]

You looked at a few factors when there are thousands of factors. I haven't seen anyone on this thread say "Butch gets a pass because..." You keep jumping on the "you're making excuses" wagon. Excuses for what? Barring something monumentally stupid like a strip club incident or something like that, Jones is going to get at least three years here.

When you evaluate a coach, you don't look at one game or one season. Mostly it's about marked improvement. It's not about "if he does this, he's good" or "if he does this, he's bad." Everyone has their own feel for what they think will make him a success or a failure.

It's like with Dobbs and Ferguson. We haven't seen either of them, but quite a few posters on here are convinced one or the other of them is the next thing. No one knows. Even if they played in the first three games, there wouldn't be enough evidence.

Too many arguments on this board become an all or nothing. It's frustrating. Sometimes, most of the time, things are gray.

And I'm still not quite sure what you're driving at. If Jones doesn't get an upset victory this year, are you saying UT should cut him loose? After one season? Or are you just asking us all to prepare for two more years of mediocrity after this one if your metrics aren't met?

You haven't read this board if you haven't seen "this is a throw away year" or "just give him 3-4 years to show improvement" pretty much constantly.

And no, I'm not advocating that we should fire Butch Jones. Let me be very clear: we can't fire Butch Jones, so there is no point in even debating that.

But, we should be able to see whether or not he can be a top notch SEC coach fairly soon. And we can use facts and evidence collected over a broad span (i.e. all successful SEC coaches hired in the last 13 years) to help determine this. And if he's not the guy, well, he's not going anywhere, and we're pretty much doomed to being what Ole Miss used to be. And that's probably fine with alot of you, but I'm not going to pretend it's all candy and roses with empty platitudes while that happens.

 

[Z06VolinWV]

This type of thread has come up WAYYY too often the last few years!!! Hopefully, we won't have to see it again for the next 10 or more years!!

 

[99gator]

You haven't read this board if you haven't seen "this is a throw away year" or "just give him 3-4 years to show improvement" pretty much constantly.

And no, I'm not advocating that we should fire Butch Jones. Let me be very clear: we can't fire Butch Jones, so there is no point in even debating that.

But, we should be able to see whether or not he can be a top notch SEC coach fairly soon. And we can use facts and evidence collected over a broad span (i.e. all successful SEC coaches hired in the last 13 years) to help determine this. And if he's not the guy, well, he's not going anywhere, and we're pretty much doomed to being what Ole Miss used to be. And that's probably fine with alot of you, but I'm not going to pretend it's all candy and roses with empty platitudes while that happens.

Well at least wait for match ups where jones has a fighting chance

 

[oregonvol]

This type of thread has come up WAYYY too often the last few years!!! Hopefully, we won't have to see it again for the next 10 or more years!!

Yeah, it sucks when someone posts facts. Maybe you can stick to threads like "An Open Letter to ____" or "Doesn't Butch look like that guy who was on TV once playing a soldier?"

 

[utvolpj]

Good list. Though, I'd argue most of these comparisons aren't very apt for Butch. Most of these coaches walked into a situation with a significant amount of talent, where the previous coaching staff was underperforming (see Urban Meyer). Alternatively, some of these coaches walked into well-established situations. Les Miles took over for Saban. Petrino took over for Houston Nutt, who won 8 games and 10 games in the two years prior.

Spurrier took over OK situations (with potential) and slowly turned them into great situations. Saban turned around an Alabama squad with OK talent. Those are probably the closest similarities.

Turn-around jobs are probably the best thing to look at. Bob Stoops comes to mind, though, Jones probably doesn't have enough talent to wildly improve in Year 2 like Stoops. Year 3 might be a better gauge for Jones. I still think Jim Harbaugh is a good comparison. Harbaugh had a lot of difficulties to deal with in his first two years. He finally started to show on-the-field results in Year 3. Mack Brown at North Carolina is another one. His first two years were horrible (1-10 both years). Started to see progress in Year #3 and Year #4 and by Year #5, pushed UNC to 9-3.

This seems to be a consistent theme with successful turn-arounds; first two years are rough-going, but you start to see big results by Year 3 and Year 4.

very good post

 

[oregonvol]

The Vols have only played three games. Why do so many of you have your panties in a wad. So far the season is what was expected, no suprises yet. If you want to compare coaches first seasons, at least wait till the season is over.

Who has their panties in a wad? This thread didn't say anything about the games we have played. You can draw your own conclusions on that. Sorry that posting facts interrupted your latest "Butch gets it" fantasy. Please carry on.

 

[oregonvol]

Good list. Though, I'd argue most of these comparisons aren't very apt for Butch. Most of these coaches walked into a situation with a significant amount of talent, where the previous coaching staff was underperforming (see Urban Meyer). Alternatively, some of these coaches walked into well-established situations. Les Miles took over for Saban. Petrino took over for Houston Nutt, who won 8 games and 10 games in the two years prior.

Spurrier took over OK situations (with potential) and slowly turned them into great situations. Saban turned around an Alabama squad with OK talent. Those are probably the closest similarities.

Turn-around jobs are probably the best thing to look at. Bob Stoops comes to mind, though, Jones probably doesn't have enough talent to wildly improve in Year 2 like Stoops. Year 3 might be a better gauge for Jones. I still think Jim Harbaugh is a good comparison. Harbaugh had a lot of difficulties to deal with in his first two years. He finally started to show on-the-field results in Year 3. Mack Brown at North Carolina is another one. His first two years were horrible (1-10 both years). Started to see progress in Year #3 and Year #4 and by Year #5, pushed UNC to 9-3.

This seems to be a consistent theme with successful turn-arounds; first two years are rough-going, but you start to see big results by Year 3 and Year 4.

Yeah, if we just go back long enough and look at other levels of competition then we can surely find guys who lost for years before they won anything (and Jim Harbaugh "finally started to show on-the-field results in Year 3"? Really? That win over USC didn't show anything?).

Nice try. I remember when you guys always did that with Dooley too. Heck up until the very end, it was "But it took Johnny Majors 5 years" or "Well, this high school coach in 1946..." Doesn't have any relevance to today's SEC, but yeah, I can't argue with zealots.

 

[KBVol]

The Vols have only played three games. Why do so many of you have your panties in a wad. So far the season is what was expected, no suprises yet. If you want to compare coaches first seasons, at least wait till the season is over.

We should wait until after the season is over to judge the season? Huh? Doesn't seem like many have thought of that. Voice of reason.

It's ok to bring up the points, ask the questions. But I agree with you. Don't draw conclusions or really make implications until you have all the data.

 

[oregonvol]

Make comparisons and evaluations when the time is right

Another classic we heard on this board throughout the Dooley years. Well done.

 

[oregonvol]

every situation is different. To try and simplify it down to win-loss in 1st year ignores so many factors

all look the same on the w/l record

I give up

 

[First&Tenn]

I don't think that first year alone is enough to draw a conclusion on the pattern that emerges. However, statistics show that over the 21 year span since the SEC title game has been started, only 2 coaches have had a losing record in the first season and then went on to lead their teams to the SEC title. I'm re-posting some research I did last fall during the downfall of Dooley (with the Dooley stuff omitted and a few notes on Jones added) below. I only researched coaches that have won at least 1 SEC title, because that is what a fan should want to see out of their coach to define success. If you want a base line to look at to judge Butch on his record over the next couple of years, it's a good place to start.

Basically, I want to see 6-7 wins this year (As mentioned above, only 2 title-winning coaches had a losing record in year one) and closer to 8-10 wins next year (almost all of the title-winning coaches posted double digit wins in their second year and only Dubose had fewer than 8) based on the data below. If he can get that out of this team, then he may just be capable of taking them to the championship before all is said and done.

I went back and compiled the records for every coach that has won an SEC title since the beginning of the championship game in 1992. That gives us 20 (now 21) years of data. For each coach, I examined their first three years at the program where they won the title. I compiled win/loss statistics along with their wins and losses over Top 25 opponents. I wanted to get a baseline of performance for a coach capable of winning the SEC title.

Here are the numbers:

Stallings (Bama)

Year 1: 7-5
Year 2: 11-1
Year 3: 13-0
3 Year Total: 31-6
Win %: 83.78%
vs Top 25: 9-2
% vs Top 25: 81.82%


Spurrier (UF)

Year 1: 9-2
Year 2: 10-2
Year 3: 9-4
3 Year Total: 28-8
Win %: 77.78%
vs Top 25: 8-8
% vs Top 25: 50.00%


Fulmer (UT)(Beginning with first full year)

Year 1: 10-2 (Tie with #2 Bama was forfeited and counted here as a win)
Year 2: 8-4
Year 3: 11-1
3 Year Total: 29-7
Win %: 80.56%
vs Top 25: 9-6
% vs Top 25: 60.00%


Dubose (Bama)

Year 1: 4-7
Year 2: 7-5
Year 3: 10-3
3 Year Total: 21-15
Win %: 58.33%
vs Top 25: 5-8
% vs Top 25: 38.46%


Saban (LSU)

Year 1: 8-4
Year 2: 10-3
Year 3: 8-5
3 Year Total: 26-12
Win %: 68.42%
vs Top 25: 7-7
% vs Top 25: 50.00%


Richt (UGA)

Year 1: 8-4
Year 2: 13-1
Year 3: 11-3
3 Year Total: 32-8
Win %: 80.00%
vs Top 25: 10-7
% vs Top 25: 58.82%


Tuberville (Auburn)

Year 1: 5-6
Year 2: 9-4
Year 3: 7-5
3 Year Total: 21-15
Win %: 58.33%
vs Top 25: 5-8
% vs Top 25: 38.46%


Meyer (UF)

Year 1: 9-3
Year 2: 13-1
Year 3: 9-4
3 Year Total: 31-8
Win %: 79.49%
vs Top 25: 11-5
% vs Top 25: 68.75%


Miles (LSU)

Year 1: 11-2
Year 2: 11-2
Year 3: 12-2
3 Year Total: 34-6
Win %: 85.00%
vs Top 25: 15-5
% vs Top 25: 75.00%


Saban (Bama)

Year 1: 7-6
Year 2: 12-2
Year 3: 14-0
3 Year Total: 33-8
Win %: 80.49%
vs Top 25: 11-5
% vs Top 25: 68.75%


Chizik (Auburn)

Year 1: 8-5
Year 2: 14-0
Year 3: 8-5
3 Year Total: 30-10
Win %: 75.00%
vs Top 25: 9-6
% vs Top 25: 60.00%


And for the sake of comparison:

Butch Jones (UT)

Year 1 (So Far): 2-1
Total (So Far): 2-1
Win %: 66.67%
vs Top 25: 0-1
% vs Top 25: 0.00%


Takeaways:

1. Coaches who win the SEC title very rarely have losing seasons. Only Dubose and Tuberville had any losing seasons, and in both cases only in their first year.

2. Coaches who win the SEC title have good records against the top 25. Dubose and Tuberville are the only two to post an average below .500.

3. The Dubose case was unique and interesting. Dubose started right after the Stallings era ended. Bama had just been punished with severe NCAA sanctions that caused them to lose 26 scholarships over a 3 year period and a 2 year bowl ban (Started as a 3 year ban, but was later reduced). The NCAA considered the death penalty for the program. I think it is fair to argue that Dubose had a situation as difficult or more so than Dooley's (or Butch's)

4. Les Miles has the best overall win % in the first 3 years. It can be argued that he was winning with Saban's players, but it is still an impressive feat.

5. It's just way to early to judge Jones, and the Oregon game means nothing at this point.

6. Because of schedule difficulty and the state of the roster, I don't expect Butch's early numbers against Top 25 opponents to be very good in the beginning. Regardless of these facts, if UT makes it to the halfway point of next year without at least 1 win over a Top 25 squad, I will begin to become very pessimistic about his chances to win a championship.


History is not always the best indicator of the future, but it can be revealing.

Extra Historical Fact: 2010 & 2011 are the first back-to-back losing seasons for UT since 1910 & 1911.

 

[DocVOLiday]

The recurring theme is they all beat Fulmer for their signature win.

That's depressing but true

 

[orangeluvr]

I never said that James Franklin was great, but he has been successful. He's achieved more at Vanderbilt than any coach they have had in 50+ years. He's been to back to back bowl games. He won 9 games in year 2. He outrecruited Tennessee. Those are incredible achievements in two years at Vanderbilt.

Furthermore, I feel it is instructive to look at Franklin as a coach who inherited a tough situation. Butch fans want to argue that he should be given a pass for 3-4 years because of what he inherited. Well, Franklin inherited a 2-10 program and was competitive out of the gate.

I'm a Butch fan , but if he doesn't get it done in 3yrs with the resources he has at his disposal , then it should be goodbye. Worse programs have been turned around in that period. I support CBJ and believe he can turn this thing around. :thumbsup:
Losing has become very frustrating, I and other loyal VFLs deserve to have a winning team.