Successful SEC Coaches in their 1st seasons...

[oregonvol]

I don't think that first year alone is enough to draw a conclusion on the pattern that emerges. However, statistics show that over the 21 year span since the SEC title game has been started, only 2 coaches have had a losing record in the first season and then went on to lead their teams to the SEC title. I'm re-posting some research I did last fall during the downfall of Dooley (with the Dooley stuff omitted and a few notes on Jones added) below. I only researched coaches that have won at least 1 SEC title, because that is what a fan should want to see out of their coach to define success. If you want a base line to look at to judge Butch on his record over the next couple of years, it's a good place to start.

Basically, I want to see 6-7 wins this year (As mentioned above, only 2 title-winning coaches had a losing record in year one) and closer to 8-10 wins next year (almost all of the title-winning coaches posted double digit wins in their second year and only Dubose had fewer than 8) based on the data below. If he can get that out of this team, then he may just be capable of taking them to the championship before all is said and done.

Yes. I liked your thread. I thought it was informative.

My thread was intended to simply help us evaluate year 1. Of course, we'll know more after year 2, but I find it silly to wait that long before making any evaluations. Given the money that is being charged and the donations being requested, I feel evaluations should be made from Day 1. But, certainly over the course of a season, reasonable comparisons can be drawn.

The funny thing is, I actually thought this thread would defend Butch more than anything and help people get over the embarrassing Oregon loss easier by pointing out that such things happen to even the best 1st year SEC coaches. But, I discounted the little alarm that goes off in most posters heads here whenever you try to introduce facts or establish any basic standards to hold coaches accountable. It's like you're a witch out to curse their children.

 

[DiderotsGhost]

Nice try. I remember when you guys always did that with Dooley too.

"You guys"?

I wasn't even here at VN during Dooley's first two years.

I was never a fan of the Dooley hire, but thought he deserved a shot. Every coach (with a few exceptions) deserves 3-4 years at a minimum. Otherwise, you end up firing guys like Jim Harbaugh, Frank Beamer, Bobby Bowden, Johnny Majors, Mack Brown at UNC, etc.

Harbaugh beat USC in Year #1 by one point. If Stanford had lost by 2 points in that game and went 3-9 that year, do you think he should've been fired? I've made an entire thread on this already: Harbaugh showed a lot of progress in the first two years, even thought the results didn't always reflect it. The upset over USC was great, but even if he had lost that game, if you watched his teams play, you would've been impressed with the progress.

The best way to evaluate a coach during the first two years of a turn-around job is how the team plays. Dooley's teams constantly quit. Harbaugh's teams constantly fought, even when no one expected them to win. I'll evaluate Butch Jones by the same standard. Of course, I'd love a big upset or two in the first two years, but so long as we see progress (unlike with Dooley), then I'll be content. By Year 3 and Year 4, I definitely expect some on-the-field results.

 

[DD4ME]

It is subjective but typically a well coached team is easy to spot even when they are out matched or out gunned. A well "coached" CFB team in the SEC ALSO includes not being out recruited though. That's a dynamic that isn't always as stark in other conferences. Butch is a marketing guy though and I actually have less worries about recruiting than I do about the scheme and assistant dynamic he's brought to the table. I think the consistency is good for a base not sure these are the assistant coaches that take you to an SECCG though.

 

[utvolpj]

I give up

you probably should since those statements aren't related. It also pointed out the floating measure of success you put out there

UT lost one game to a team very likely to play for the NC. Odds are it won't be the only time that happens this season either. I can't think of any other team in FBS that will make that claim and even fewer have to make it while in a situation like CBJ inherited.

My expectations for this season were not based on w-l record. Anyone looking at our schedule should do the same

 

[JohnMarxism]

Another classic we heard on this board throughout the Dooley years. Well done.

You're confused on why you made this thread. First, you offered a ray of optimism by using over simplified factors to make a point that Butch Jones should follow the pattern of upsetting a top 25 team. Now you refuse to be reasonable, simply because your lack of sound logic has been exposed.

 

[oregonvol]

"You guys"?

I wasn't even here at VN during Dooley's first two years.

I was never a fan of the Dooley hire, but thought he deserved a shot. Every coach (with a few exceptions) deserves 3-4 years at a minimum. Otherwise, you end up firing guys like Jim Harbaugh, Frank Beamer, Bobby Bowden, Johnny Majors, Mack Brown at UNC, etc.

Harbaugh beat USC in Year #1 by one point. If Stanford had lost by 2 points in that game and went 3-9 that year, do you think he should've been fired? I've made an entire thread on this already: Harbaugh showed a lot of progress in the first two years, even thought the results didn't always reflect it. The upset over USC was great, but even if he had lost that game, if you watched his teams play, you would've been impressed with the progress.

The best way to evaluate a coach during the first two years of a turn-around job is how the team plays. Dooley's teams constantly quit. Harbaugh's teams constantly fought, even when no one expected them to win. I'll evaluate Butch Jones by the same standard. Of course, I'd love a big upset or two in the first two years, but so long as we see progress (unlike with Dooley), then I'll be content. By Year 3 and Year 4, I definitely expect some on-the-field results.

Harbaugh inherited a 1-10 football team. Harbaugh beat the #2 football team in his 1st year. Harbaugh played a PAC 10 schedule. Harbaugh never won the PAC 10. What does all of this mean? Nothing as it applies to Butch Jones. If you cast your net wide enough, you can always find ifs ands or buts...and if you want to start a thread comparing Harbaugh and Jones, have at it. This thread is comparing Jones with every successful SEC coach hired in this century.

 

[oregonvol]

You're confused on why you made this thread. First, you offered a ray of optimism by using over simplified factors to make a point that Butch Jones should follow the pattern of upsetting a top 25 team. Now you refuse to be reasonable, simply because your lack of sound logic has been exposed.

I'm sorry, what did you expose using the highly logical and effective "wait until the time is right" argument?

 

[DD4ME]

Most or all did something meaningful by year 2 in the win column. I'm not saying knock off Bama but we need some kind of meaningful win by year 2.

 

[92volalum]

I don't think that first year alone is enough to draw a conclusion on the pattern that emerges. However, statistics show that over the 21 year span since the SEC title game has been started, only 2 coaches have had a losing record in the first season and then went on to lead their teams to the SEC title. I'm re-posting some research I did last fall during the downfall of Dooley (with the Dooley stuff omitted and a few notes on Jones added) below. I only researched coaches that have won at least 1 SEC title, because that is what a fan should want to see out of their coach to define success. If you want a base line to look at to judge Butch on his record over the next couple of years, it's a good place to start.

Basically, I want to see 6-7 wins this year (As mentioned above, only 2 title-winning coaches had a losing record in year one) and closer to 8-10 wins next year (almost all of the title-winning coaches posted double digit wins in their second year and only Dubose had fewer than 8) based on the data below. If he can get that out of this team, then he may just be capable of taking them to the championship before all is said and done.

more facts to track but people on vn would rather talk about he gets it n the process insteads something tangible to measure him against..

i think this is so telling n another good stat would be how many sec coaches have been hired with winning percentage n got fired n how their first three years record trended.

 

[UTFanForLife]

Attrition needs to be accounted for. Can look at recruiting rankings all day long, facts are that a ton of kids from the past 3 recruiting classes are not here.

Just from a rough count, 30 of our recruits are not here from the 10, 11 and 12 classes. 16 of those coming from 2010, which would be seniors this year.

From the 2013 class, 8 of those kids are in the 2 deep, with 3 starting right now and Vereen would be starting if not for injury.

This is a recipe for disaster and has been this way for a few years.

 

[oregonvol]

Attrition needs to be accounted for. Can look at recruiting rankings all day long, facts are that a ton of kids from the past 3 recruiting classes are not here.

Just from a rough count, 30 of our recruits are not here from the 10, 11 and 12 classes. 16 of those coming from 2010, which would be seniors this year.

From the 2013 class, 8 of those kids are in the 2 deep, with 3 starting right now and Vereen would be starting if not for injury.

This is a recipe for disaster and has been this way for a few years.

Hmmm...maybe in another thread I need to track how many 4 stars Butch started out with compared to James Franklin and Hugh Freeze. Good idea. Maybe down the line.

The purpose of this thread is not to compare recruiting classes however. If you check out the OP, I'm charting improvements in win-loss records and looking particularly at significant wins and losses in the first year.

 

[DD4ME]

Attrition needs to be accounted for. Can look at recruiting rankings all day long, facts are that a ton of kids from the past 3 recruiting classes are not here.

Just from a rough count, 30 of our recruits are not here from the 10, 11 and 12 classes. 16 of those coming from 2010, which would be seniors this year.

From the 2013 class, 8 of those kids are in the 2 deep, with 3 starting right now and Vereen would be starting if not for injury.

This is a recipe for disaster and has been this way for a few years.

A direct byproduct of stability and our short cuts in the recruiting game. Butch has time, because we have no choice so that at the very minimum will improve.

 

[nagle]

I'm sorry, what did you expose using the highly logical and effective "wait until the time is right" argument?

lulz, :compute:


























:wavey:

 

[VolsFan_72]

What we are forgetting about Franklin (9-4). Candy actually had 2 wins against .500 teams: Ole Miss(7-6) and NC State(7-6). Zero wins against top 25. For us to finish with 9 wins, we would have to beat 3 top 25 teams. That's the difference!

 

[WriterVol]

Hmmm...maybe in another thread I need to track how many 4 stars Butch started out with compared to James Franklin and Hugh Freeze. Good idea. Maybe down the line.

The purpose of this thread is not to compare recruiting classes however. If you check out the OP, I'm charting improvements in win-loss records and looking particularly at significant wins and losses in the first year.

It's funny, I think your opinion and the opinions of a lot of people on this thread are similar in that we all expect measurable success in some form in the next 1 to 1-1/2 seasons.

What's striking is the vehemence with which you defend your original post to it's every last point. Anyone who has a disagreement or a clarifying point is a Butch excuse maker.

I actually think the points you bring up, for the most part, are very reasonable and logical, but you gotta pull the throttle back a tad. I know you aren't saying this is the end-all be-all analysis, but you defend it somewhat viciously, and it comes off like that. Nobody's trying to be a Dooley apologist here.

 

[oregonvol]

What we are forgetting about Franklin (9-4). Candy actually had 2 wins against .500 teams: Ole Miss(7-6) and NC State(7-6). Zero wins against top 25. For us to finish with 9 wins, we would have to beat 3 top 25 teams. That's the difference!

Did anyone say they expected us to finish with 9 wins this year?

 

[oregonvol]

It's funny, I think your opinion and the opinions of a lot of people on this thread are similar in that we all expect measurable success in some form in the next 1 to 1-1/2 seasons.

What's striking is the vehemence with which you defend your original post to it's every last point. Anyone who has a disagreement or a clarifying point is a Butch excuse maker.

I actually think the points you bring up, for the most part, are very reasonable and logical, but you gotta pull the throttle back a tad. I know you aren't saying this is the end-all be-all analysis, but you defend it somewhat viciously, and it comes off like that. Nobody's trying to be a Dooley apologist here.

Please read my first post. I drew no conclusions about Butch Jones. I stated facts and suggested we use them as a basis to evaluate Butch Jones throughout his first season...and immediately, everyone jumped in with "It doesn't count!" "Butch has it so much harder than everyone else!" "We have to give him more time!"...And that is actually the exact same form of discourse that was used to defend Dooley throughout his 3 years here. I know, I was here. I have no tolerance for those who believe the coaches shouldn't be held accountable for years and this thread wasn't designed for them.

I feel I ought to respond to those people who seek to derail this thread by ignoring the facts in the first post and trying to obscure matters with empty platitudes and the same tired excuses as happens so often here.

 

[PACKERVOL]

So you are on here arguing that Butch Jones should be given a pass this year (in, other word, a year with no expectations) because he came into a situation with too many expectations? What. The. F#$%.

Oh man, this place really is through the looking glass, isn't it?

Please remember, this is year zero. Next year will be year one.

 

[nagle]

Please read my first post. I drew no conclusions about Butch Jones. I stated facts and suggested we use them as a basis to evaluate Butch Jones throughout his first season...and immediately, everyone jumped in with "It doesn't count!" "Butch has it so much harder than everyone else!" "We have to give him more time!"...And that is actually the exact same form of discourse that was used to defend Dooley throughout his 3 years here. I know, I was here. I have no tolerance for those who believe the coaches shouldn't be held accountable for years and this thread wasn't designed for them.

I feel I ought to respond to those people who seek to derail this thread by ignoring the facts in the first post and trying to obscure matters with empty platitudes and the same tired excuses as happens so often here.

I agree with this but dang man im not gonna go *****ing and crying in very thread claiming how bad the team is or the coach after one damn loss. It looked bad, get over it, shut up and enjoy some football. When the seasons over bring it.

 

[WriterVol]

Please read my first post. I drew no conclusions about Butch Jones. I stated facts and suggested we use them as a basis to evaluate Butch Jones throughout his first season...and immediately, everyone jumped in with "It doesn't count!" "Butch has it so much harder than everyone else!" "We have to give him more time!"...And that is actually the exact same form of discourse that was used to defend Dooley throughout his 3 years here. I know, I was here. I have no tolerance for those who believe the coaches shouldn't be held accountable for years and this thread wasn't designed for them.

I feel I ought to respond to those people who seek to derail this thread by ignoring the facts in the first post and trying to obscure matters with empty platitudes and the same tired excuses as happens so often here.

No. "Everyone" didn't. A few people made statements along those lines. Most of the posters offered up that it isn't exactly a one-to-one relationship and there could be some other mitigating factors. Some suggested throwing out one example or another.

The point I was trying to make is that you likely agree more than you disagree with most of these folks, and maybe you could start from that. Or, where disagreements exist, don't take them so personally.

 

[FootVolintheFall]

Seriously? James Franklin inherited a better roster than Butch Jones? Wow.

In 2009, we had the #10 recruiting class in the country. Of that class, 3 players remain: Daniel Hood, Marlon Walls and Greg King.

Yes, I'm going out on a limb and suggesting to you that James Franklin inherited a better roster than Butch Jones. The latter is nearly missing an entire class.

 

[VolsFan_72]

Did anyone say they expected us to finish with 9 wins this year?

Franklin had 9 wins in his second season. In order for CBJ to do that he would have to beat atleast 3 top 25 teams. Just sayin the record was a benefit of a weak schedule with 2 wins against .500 teams(both 7-6) and zero wins against top 25 teams.

 

[oldsmokey67]

Did anyone say they expected us to finish with 9 wins this year?

i expected 5-7 to 7-5 in year 1.but i see it could more like 5-7.cbj needs to here the whole duration of his contract.or tennessee will be starting over again.there's a reason why he says brick by brick.

 

[VolsRule]

year 2/3 in the SEC seems to be the key

meyer--national championship (2006)
chizik--national championship (2010)
saban--12-2, 8-0 in the SEC, played fla for the SEC championship---fla won the national title (won the national title in year 3)
miles--(year 3) national championship

 

[WoodstockVol]

Johnny Majors was 4-7 in His first season in 1977 and Doug Dickey was 4-5-1 in His first season in 1964.