Talent in First Year: Butch vs. Dooley vs. Kiffin

[DiderotsGhost]

In the "Last Time Tennessee Overachieved" thread, the OP looked at average recruiting rankings for UT from 2009 - 2013. I wanted to do a similar analysis in order to compare the situation for Butch Jones in Year 1 versus Dooley and Kiffin.

To take a look at how Butch's first team stacks up versus Dooley and Kiffin, I examined recruiting rankings for the previous five years for all three coaches. I then looked at the average ranking, as well as the average star rating.

I also wanted to created a weighted measure since Juniors and Seniors are more important to the success of a team. For that measure, the class weighting is as follows:

Redshirt Seniors: 10%
Seniors: 35%
Juniors: 27.5%
Sophomores: 17.5%
Freshmen: 10%

These are obviously debatable, but at least it provides some sort of semi-realistic way of accounting for the classes.

Here are the results:

Butch Jones
2013: 35th, 2.95
2012: 25th, 3.14
2011: 10th, 3.33
2010: 16th, 3.15
2009: 8th, 3.48
Average: 18.8, 3.21
Weighted Avr: 17.0, 3.21

Derek Dooley
2010: 16th, 3.15
2009: 8th, 3.48
2008: 35th, 2.94
2007: 4th, 3.63
2006: 24th, 3.14
Avr: 17.4, 3.27
Wght Avr: 16.4, 3.32

Kiffin
2009: 8th, 3.48
2008: 35th, 2.94
2007: 4th, 3.63
2006: 24th, 3.14
2005: 1st, 3.63
Avr: 14.4, 3.36
Wght Avr: 16.5, 3.32

The interesting takeaway is that all three coaches start(ed) their first year with a similar talent level. Butch's average weighted star rating was 3.21, while Dooley and Kiffin were both at 3.32; so Kiffin and Dooley would appear to have had slight talent advantages, but only by a small amount. The weighted average rankings are similar with Kiffin at 16.5, Dooley at 16.4, and Jones at 17.0

But the bigger problem for Butch is that unlike Dooley and Kiffin is that the "weighted average" will continue to drop over the next two seasons, since the 2012 and 2013 classes didn't have as much talent.

For instance, let's say that Butch's current #4 ranking on Scout holds up, with a 3.42 average star rating. That means he begins Year 2 with these averages:


Hypothetical Year 2
2014: 4th, 3.42
2013: 35th, 2.95
2012: 25th, 3.14
2011: 10th, 3.33
2010: 16th, 3.15
Average: 18.0, 3.20
Weighted Avr: 18.5, 3.20

And then Year 3 gets worse, even if Butch grabs two good recruiting classes.

Hypothetical Year 3
2015: 4th, 3.42
2014: 4th, 3.42
2013: 35th, 2.95
2012: 25th, 3.14
2011: 10th, 3.33
Average: 15.6, 3.25
Weighted Avr: 20.5, 3.18

So I think based on this, Butch is actually starting out in the worst situation of the three coaches. Dooley and Kiffin both had to deal with issues, but Butch will be moving forward with two of the weakest recruiting classes for Tennessee over the past two decades, and they came in consecutive years.

Does this mean Butch can't have some success at UT in Year 2 or Year 3? Not at all. If I do the same analysis on Nick Saban when he took over Alabama, you can see that Butch Jones may be in better shape starting out.

Nick Saban, 2007
2007: 22nd, 3.08
2006: 18th, 3.3
2005: 16th, 2.83
2004: 19th, 2.61
2003: 45th, 2.35
Average: 24.0, 2.83
Weighted Avr: 20.9, 2.81

While we can debate how much stock to put into recruiting rankings, one thing that I think is clear is that good coaching matters, perhaps even more than recruiting. Saban turned a group that had weak average rankings into a national title contender by Year 2.

 

[gobraves101035]

I understand how next year will be worse but how will the 2nd year get worse. Hurd,Kelly,wharton,etc will all be sophomores and all will have a lot of playing time under there belt

 

[CroKev]

I appreciate other people doing this kind of work so that I don't have to!hmy:

 

[StlCardinals2618]

Mike Shula recruited solid at Alabama. Nick Saban did not have that bad of a roster. Saban would tell you himself that he is not the best x's and o's coach, but the best recruiter.

You also have not added in attrition. Almost half of Dooley's 4* recruits have already left the program. The class rankings are probably much worse than that.

 

[Good ol' boy]

That first year Dooley was HC was one of the least talented teams I have ever seen at Tennessee. I think he started three freshmen on the offensive line and only had one scholarship defensive tackle.

 

[ACvol3]

Mike Shula recruited solid at Alabama. Nick Saban did not have that bad of a roster. Saban would tell you himself that he is not the best x's and o's coach, but the best recruiter.

You also have not added in attrition. Almost half of Dooley's 4* recruits have already left the program. The class rankings are probably much worse than that.

I doubt Saban would say that.. And he's a very good all around coach.. But he's a dck

 

[MyBloodRunnethOrange]

As someone else already stated, you have to account for attrition.If you look at where the classes were ranked at the time vs what we actually have left on the roster, you'd see that the talent level isn't where you would think it would be based on recruiting rankings.
Posted via VolNation Mobile

 

[DiderotsGhost]

Yes, I understand there is attrition. These numbers are obviously not infallible scientific facts. That's sort of how data works - there are always flaws.

Butch is dealing with attrition, too; in fact, he's probably had it worse than Dooley. Overall, even if you account for attrition, the three classes would probably come up about the same. The 2013 class is about as talented (on paper) as the 2010 class.

 

[DiderotsGhost]

Saban would tell you himself that he is not the best x's and o's coach, but the best recruiter.

Yeah ... I kinda doubt Saban would say that.

Saban wasn't even really known for recruiting until he had already won a national championship at LSU. Before that, his classes were normally ranked in the 11 - 25 range.

 

[VOLumeS]

too much reading got confused

 

[Volunteer_Kirby]

Yes, I understand there is attrition. These numbers are obviously not infallible scientific facts. That's sort of how data works - there are always flaws.

Butch is dealing with attrition, too. In case anyone forgot, UT lost its best quarterback (Tyler Bray) and two best wide receivers (Hunter, Patterson), as they all left for the NFL one year early.

Overall, even if you account for attrition, the three classes would probably come up about the same. The 2013 class is about as talented (on paper) as the 2010 class.

I forget the true number on the stat, but generally you lose, on average, 30-45% of any given class by their senior year. If you ask me, that is too significant of a number to ignore. I know you were trying to make a meaningful analysis here and it may look nice, but looks might be deceiving. I honestly don't see how one can take any meaningful insight from it. If you wanted to make a more impactful analysis, why not consider focusing on 2013 and 2014, revising your "class rankings" number based on a 'revisionary ranking' that discludes, namely, all players lost to attrition, then from there take into account how many fr, so, jr, & sr's there are as projected starters for the '13 season and then use your 'class weighting percentage' based on that. Then you still have to ask the question, if there are an equal amount of sophomores to seniors and more juniors than any other class, should my number not reflect that statistic? Secondly, wouldn't the two deep be a better indicator used to better gauge the talent level of the teams being compared?

Just a thought ... I know you worked hard on it and I'm trashing it a little by saying it's entirely insignificant, but in my opinion it has real potential if you were to use the model to focus on current talent level rather than inflated rankings and vague class percentage values.

 

[DiderotsGhost]

I forget the true number on the stat, but generally you lose, on average, 30-45% of any given class by their senior year. If you ask me, that is too significant of a number to ignore. ..... that discludes, namely, all players lost to attrition, then from there take into account how many fr, so, jr, & sr's there are as projected starters for the '13 season and then use your 'class weighting percentage' based on that. Then you still have to ask the question, if there are an equal amount of sophomores to seniors and more juniors than any other class, should my number not reflect that statistic? Secondly, wouldn't the two deep be a better indicator used to better gauge the talent level of the teams being compared? Just a thought ...

We're not building the Large Hadron Collider here, champ. This is a quick and dirty analysis of recruiting rankings. It took about 15 minutes to paste some rankings into Excel and get the averages.

If you want to do a PhD thesis on the most scientific way to evaluate college football talent based on recruiting rankings, go ahead and take the initiative.

 

[Volunteer_Kirby]

We're not building the Large Hadron Collider here, champ. This is a quick and dirty analysis of recruiting rankings. It took about 15 minutes to paste some rankings into Excel and get the averages.

If you want to do a PhD thesis on the most scientific way to evaluate college football talent based on recruiting rankings, go ahead and take the initiative.

Next time I'll just say your stats are weak instead of suggesting ways to make the data less obsolete. :lol:

 

[ajvol01]

Yes, I understand there is attrition. These numbers are obviously not infallible scientific facts. That's sort of how data works - there are always flaws.

Butch is dealing with attrition, too; in fact, he's probably had it worse than Dooley. Overall, even if you account for attrition, the three classes would probably come up about the same. The 2013 class is about as talented (on paper) as the 2010 class.

Kiffin ran off a TON of players...it was like he did not understand 25 scolly limit for each signing class. 2010 roster was worst I've seen in 30+ yrs of going to games.

Joe Ayres played significant snaps at DT vs Florida. O-line was made up of a lot of guys starting this year except they were true/RS Freshmen

 

[utvolkyle06]

None of this matters. Over the last year I keep seeing that CBJ gets it and is a winner everywhere has been and has assembled a great coaching staff. So, we should at least have a winning season and only get better and better each year.
So me worry? Naw.

 

[Rocky_Top_Vol13]

In the "Last Time Tennessee Overachieved" thread, the OP looked at average recruiting rankings for UT from 2009 - 2013. I wanted to do a similar analysis in order to compare the situation for Butch Jones in Year 1 versus Dooley and Kiffin.

To take a look at how Butch's first team stacks up versus Dooley and Kiffin, I examined recruiting rankings for the previous five years for all three coaches. I then looked at the average ranking, as well as the average star rating.

I also wanted to created a weighted measure since Juniors and Seniors are more important to the success of a team. For that measure, the class weighting is as follows:

Redshirt Seniors: 10%
Seniors: 35%
Juniors: 27.5%
Sophomores: 17.5%
Freshmen: 10%

These are obviously debatable, but at least it provides some sort of semi-realistic way of accounting for the classes.

Here are the results:

Butch Jones
2013: 35th, 2.95
2012: 25th, 3.14
2011: 10th, 3.33
2010: 16th, 3.15
2009: 8th, 3.48
Average: 18.8, 3.21
Weighted Avr: 17.0, 3.21

Derek Dooley
2010: 16th, 3.15
2009: 8th, 3.48
2008: 35th, 2.94
2007: 4th, 3.63
2006: 24th, 3.14
Avr: 17.4, 3.27
Wght Avr: 16.4, 3.32

Kiffin
2009: 8th, 3.48
2008: 35th, 2.94
2007: 4th, 3.63
2006: 24th, 3.14
2005: 1st, 3.63
Avr: 14.4, 3.36
Wght Avr: 16.5, 3.32

The interesting takeaway is that all three coaches start(ed) their first year with a similar talent level. Butch's average weighted star rating was 3.21, while Dooley and Kiffin were both at 3.32; so Kiffin and Dooley would appear to have had slight talent advantages, but only by a small amount. The weighted average rankings are similar with Kiffin at 16.5, Dooley at 16.4, and Jones at 17.0

But the bigger problem for Butch is that unlike Dooley and Kiffin is that the "weighted average" will continue to drop over the next two seasons, since the 2012 and 2013 classes didn't have as much talent.

For instance, let's say that Butch's current #4 ranking on Scout holds up, with a 3.42 average star rating. That means he begins Year 2 with these averages:


Hypothetical Year 2
2014: 4th, 3.42
2013: 35th, 2.95
2012: 25th, 3.14
2011: 10th, 3.33
2010: 16th, 3.15
Average: 18.0, 3.20
Weighted Avr: 18.5, 3.20

And then Year 3 gets worse, even if Butch grabs two good recruiting classes.

Hypothetical Year 3
2015: 4th, 3.42
2014: 4th, 3.42
2013: 35th, 2.95
2012: 25th, 3.14
2011: 10th, 3.33
Average: 15.6, 3.25
Weighted Avr: 20.5, 3.18

So I think based on this, Butch is actually starting out in the worst situation of the three coaches. Dooley and Kiffin both had to deal with issues, but Butch will be moving forward with two of the weakest recruiting classes for Tennessee over the past two decades, and they came in consecutive years.

Does this mean Butch can't have some success at UT in Year 2 or Year 3? Not at all. If I do the same analysis on Nick Saban when he took over Alabama, you can see that Butch Jones may be in better shape starting out.

Nick Saban, 2007
2007: 22nd, 3.08
2006: 18th, 3.3
2005: 16th, 2.83
2004: 19th, 2.61
2003: 45th, 2.35
Average: 24.0, 2.83
Weighted Avr: 20.9, 2.81

While we can debate how much stock to put into recruiting rankings, one thing that I think is clear is that good coaching matters, perhaps even more than recruiting. Saban turned a group that had weak average rankings into a national title contender by Year 2.

This is quite possibly one of the best thought out and nicely worded posts that I’ve ever seen on Volnation. Well done Sir. :clap:

 

[FootVolFanInFL]

Well as long as Butch GETS IT we will be fine..

 

[ShowSomePride]

I still can't believe that in 2007 (according to Rivals) we signed five 5* and 32 players....and still were only #3!

That's insane to think about now.

 

[Boca Vol]

I still can't believe that in 2007 (according to Rivals) we signed five 5* and 32 players....and still were only #3!

That's insane to think about now.

And what exactly did that class produce on the field? I'd say it was over-rated.

 

[orangeluvr]

In the "Last Time Tennessee Overachieved" thread, the OP looked at average recruiting rankings for UT from 2009 - 2013. I wanted to do a similar analysis in order to compare the situation for Butch Jones in Year 1 versus Dooley and Kiffin.

To take a look at how Butch's first team stacks up versus Dooley and Kiffin, I examined recruiting rankings for the previous five years for all three coaches. I then looked at the average ranking, as well as the average star rating.

I also wanted to created a weighted measure since Juniors and Seniors are more important to the success of a team. For that measure, the class weighting is as follows:

Redshirt Seniors: 10%
Seniors: 35%
Juniors: 27.5%
Sophomores: 17.5%
Freshmen: 10%

These are obviously debatable, but at least it provides some sort of semi-realistic way of accounting for the classes.

Here are the results:

Butch Jones
2013: 35th, 2.95
2012: 25th, 3.14
2011: 10th, 3.33
2010: 16th, 3.15
2009: 8th, 3.48
Average: 18.8, 3.21
Weighted Avr: 17.0, 3.21

Derek Dooley
2010: 16th, 3.15
2009: 8th, 3.48
2008: 35th, 2.94
2007: 4th, 3.63
2006: 24th, 3.14
Avr: 17.4, 3.27
Wght Avr: 16.4, 3.32

Kiffin
2009: 8th, 3.48
2008: 35th, 2.94
2007: 4th, 3.63
2006: 24th, 3.14
2005: 1st, 3.63
Avr: 14.4, 3.36
Wght Avr: 16.5, 3.32

The interesting takeaway is that all three coaches start(ed) their first year with a similar talent level. Butch's average weighted star rating was 3.21, while Dooley and Kiffin were both at 3.32; so Kiffin and Dooley would appear to have had slight talent advantages, but only by a small amount. The weighted average rankings are similar with Kiffin at 16.5, Dooley at 16.4, and Jones at 17.0

But the bigger problem for Butch is that unlike Dooley and Kiffin is that the "weighted average" will continue to drop over the next two seasons, since the 2012 and 2013 classes didn't have as much talent.

For instance, let's say that Butch's current #4 ranking on Scout holds up, with a 3.42 average star rating. That means he begins Year 2 with these averages:


Hypothetical Year 2
2014: 4th, 3.42
2013: 35th, 2.95
2012: 25th, 3.14
2011: 10th, 3.33
2010: 16th, 3.15
Average: 18.0, 3.20
Weighted Avr: 18.5, 3.20

And then Year 3 gets worse, even if Butch grabs two good recruiting classes.

Hypothetical Year 3
2015: 4th, 3.42
2014: 4th, 3.42
2013: 35th, 2.95
2012: 25th, 3.14
2011: 10th, 3.33
Average: 15.6, 3.25
Weighted Avr: 20.5, 3.18

So I think based on this, Butch is actually starting out in the worst situation of the three coaches. Dooley and Kiffin both had to deal with issues, but Butch will be moving forward with two of the weakest recruiting classes for Tennessee over the past two decades, and they came in consecutive years.

Does this mean Butch can't have some success at UT in Year 2 or Year 3? Not at all. If I do the same analysis on Nick Saban when he took over Alabama, you can see that Butch Jones may be in better shape starting out.

Nick Saban, 2007
2007: 22nd, 3.08
2006: 18th, 3.3
2005: 16th, 2.83
2004: 19th, 2.61
2003: 45th, 2.35
Average: 24.0, 2.83
Weighted Avr: 20.9, 2.81

While we can debate how much stock to put into recruiting rankings, one thing that I think is clear is that good coaching matters, perhaps even more than recruiting. Saban turned a group that had weak average rankings into a national title contender by Year 2.

You deserve another star for this post ! :clapping:

 

[Col_Cathcart]

Why do you assign an arbitrary percentage weight to each class instead of counting how many members of that class are on the roster?

 

[TUSKtimes]

I doubt Saban would say that.. And he's a very good all around coach..

Coach Saban turned to Mal Moore and ask: "what do you think you've got with me as a coach? Moore said: "I think we've got the best coach in the country." Saban responded: "no you didn't. But you got the best damn recruiter that ever lived."

Just when mythology makes you feel you know something, here comes another dose of reality.

 

[sjt18]

That first year Dooley was HC was one of the least talented teams I have ever seen at Tennessee. I think he started three freshmen on the offensive line and only had one scholarship defensive tackle.

His first two years were like that.

He sufficiently proved he could not coach with last year's debacle but the analysis above is flawed since the 07 and 09 classes were complete busts (except for Berry who left early) and sandwiched a class that ranked outside the top 25.

IIRC, he started 4 Fr on the OL for all or part of that season... plus a Sr who was beaten out the previous year by two 265 lb walk-ons.

 

[sjt18]

And what exactly did that class produce on the field? I'd say it was over-rated.

2007 and 2009 were both badly overrated.

 

[k-town_king]

Butch easily has it the worst.