Talent in First Year: Butch vs. Dooley vs. Kiffin

[sjt18]

Nb4 OskieVolum posts....

1. Kiffin left Dooley with a roster worst than the '92 SMU Mustangs coming off a 6 year NCAA "death penalty" sanction

and

2. Dooley left Butch a roster with more talent than the '85 Bears.

Kiffin didn't. Fulmer's lack of discipline and declining recruiting left neither guy with talent. The flops that were the 07-09 classes were bound to result in rosters that were not competitive.


Stupid exaggerations do not make for a good argument btw.

 

[sjt18]

Yes, I understand there is attrition. These numbers are obviously not infallible scientific facts. That's sort of how data works - there are always flaws.

There are never flaws in "data"... only in interpretations or assumptions where data is missing.

Butch is dealing with attrition, too; in fact, he's probably had it worse than Dooley. Overall, even if you account for attrition, the three classes would probably come up about the same. The 2013 class is about as talented (on paper) as the 2010 class.

Just go back and compare the starters for Dooley's first team to the projected starters for this fall. There's no comparison. Jones inherits and excellent OL with depth. He inherits talent and depth on the DL. He inherits 2 QB's with experience in the program and one with SEC playing experience (Dooley had no returning QB's). IIRC, none of the LB's Dooley inherited were NFL caliber. He inherited one RB with any kind of experience... and it wasn't good experience (Poole).

Dooley may have had a slight advantage at DB and did have an advantage at TE/WR. The other areas weren't even close.

 

[Catbone]

Buckle up boys. Regardless of what happens CBJ will be our coach for at least the next 4 years.

 

[butchna]

Kiffin didn't. Fulmer's lack of discipline and declining recruiting left neither guy with talent. The flops that were the 07-09 classes were bound to result in rosters that were not competitive.


Stupid exaggerations do not make for a good argument btw.

Half the time, exaggerations on this board WORK EVERY TIME
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[IndianaVolunteer]

Mike Shula recruited solid at Alabama. Nick Saban did not have that bad of a roster. Saban would tell you himself that he is not the best x's and o's coach, but the best recruiter.

You also have not added in attrition. Almost half of Dooley's 4* recruits have already left the program. The class rankings are probably much worse than that.

Saban is more than recruiter. I'm only 22 and I know this! Have you never watched NFL films? Wow. You don't get offered NFL jobs (Dolphins) for being a good recruiter, you don't even recruit it the NFL. It's all about coaching.



C'mon Man!

 

[KBVol]

Kiffin didn't. Fulmer's lack of discipline and declining recruiting left neither guy with talent. The flops that were the 07-09 classes were bound to result in rosters that were not competitive.


Stupid exaggerations do not make for a good argument btw.

Very slight exaggeration as compared to your fanatic and blind defense of Dooley .... very slight. Stay classy pal.

 

[LordVOLdemort]

We're not building the Large Hadron Collider here, champ. This is a quick and dirty analysis of recruiting rankings. It took about 15 minutes to paste some rankings into Excel and get the averages.

If you want to do a PhD thesis on the most scientific way to evaluate college football talent based on recruiting rankings, go ahead and take the initiative.

Dont get all butt hurt. He was explaining the reason for counting attrition. You cant remove the players who left (look at 99's thread) to make your data more accurate?

This is a pointless thread if you are counting, for instance, Bryce Brown, a 5 star running back, in with what Dooley had. Or DaRick Rogers in with what Butch has.

Pointless thread is pointless. But it makes the argument that you want to make sound more realistic without considering ALL of the data that is important...

 

[D-rock]

Nb4 OskieVolum posts....

1. Kiffin left Dooley with a roster worst than the '92 SMU Mustangs coming off a 6 year NCAA "death penalty" sanction

and

2. Dooley left Butch a roster with more talent than the '85 Bears.

Being a Bears fan I would say you are crazy.
85 Bears, I don't think so.

 

[D-rock]

Half the time, exaggerations on this board WORK EVERY TIME
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By Odeon

 

[Bluetic]

Saban is more than recruiter. I'm only 22 and I know this! Have you never watched NFL films? Wow. You don't get offered NFL jobs (Dolphins) for being a good recruiter, you don't even recruit it the NFL. It's all about coaching.



C'mon Man!

I think its clear Saban can do about anything to do with football and do it well...

 

[SCvol333]

Dooley didn't have to start with Matt Simms. All the players knew Bray was the better qb all spring and fall camp. Gerald Jones was shocked Bray wasn't starting game one.

DD also had playmakers, something this team desperarately needs. Jones would kill for a Denarius Moore or Janzen Jackson.

All those so called "worst" positions that Dooley inherited can be argued.

Runningback is a push

Secondary had Janzen Jackson and Art Evans(until he got suspended)

DL had Gerald Williams, Malik Jackson and Chris Walker.

The only ones that aren't debatable are oline and linebackers.

DD inherited no experience at QB - CBJ inherited very little experience, but did have 2 that have been on campus and in a college program - 1 of which was very highly recruited (as high as Bray, but with a RS year under his belt) - advantage CBJ

RB is not even close - CBJ has 2 backs on the roster that are considerably more talented than Tpoole - while I don't think they are game changers, they are better than Poole

Secondary - i will give you Janzen had talent but there was nothing after that, easily a push - we had to start Teague that year, a converted wr with no experience

DL - i realize you listed names but you didnt list names of players that are any good outside of Mjackson - big dan has round1,2 NFL draft potential - couch has NFL potential - edge CBJ

Oline is such a huge upgrade it is hard to even compare it to the others

I get that DD had WR's and a good TE - that is an edge - but when you look at it all he inherited a terrible team that I believe had 2 guys drafted in the NFL

do you really think we will only have 2 guys drafted in the NFL on this year's team

i would say we have a chance at 5 - couch, mccullers, and 3 of the OL - neal has a chance as well, AJ has a chance if he can play better in space

 

[Vol4life25]

Buckle up boys. Regardless of what happens CBJ will be our coach for at least the next 4 years.

Fulmer was only allowed 2 bad seasons in what??? Like 16 years.

Why should Butch get a pass....

If he has two bad seasons toss his a$$.

 

[Vols4us]

So here we are, again. Similar situations in appearances with Kiffin and Dools. Except for one detail. This team has SEC experienced quality talent loaded across the board in the lines on both sides of the ball. Data is great to have it is analyzed correctly.

The game is won or lost in the trenches. I like our chances in many games because of that and that I think Butch gets it as well. He has historically run the ball 50-60 percent of the time. Totally different philosophy and scheme than what you have been seeing. This suits our roster well if you understand you don't have to run zone read all of the time to be successful. The front 7 on D will be strong and they will use more zone in the secondary. Sunseri's scheme caused much of the problems last year.

 

[99gator]

Butch has inherited a better situation.

However, let's not pretend the situation butch walked into is good.

There isn't proven talent anywhere except the offensive line.

 

[SCvol333]

Butch has inherited a better situation.

However, let's not pretend the situation butch walked into is good.

There isn't proven talent anywhere except the offensive line.

i would agree with that

having no qb, no proven playmakers at WR, no proven pass rushers, no LB's that can play in space, and no proven secondaries sans 1 kid coming off an ACL tear is certainly no cakewalk

despite all that though, still a better situation than his predecessor

 

[oregonvol]

DD inherited no experience at QB - CBJ inherited very little experience, but did have 2 that have been on campus and in a college program - 1 of which was very highly recruited (as high as Bray, but with a RS year under his belt) - advantage CBJ

RB is not even close - CBJ has 2 backs on the roster that are considerably more talented than Tpoole - while I don't think they are game changers, they are better than Poole

Secondary - i will give you Janzen had talent but there was nothing after that, easily a push - we had to start Teague that year, a converted wr with no experience

DL - i realize you listed names but you didnt list names of players that are any good outside of Mjackson - big dan has round1,2 NFL draft potential - couch has NFL potential - edge CBJ

Dooley inherited QB Nick Stephens (who had several games starting experience), RB Bryce Brown, and DT Montori Hughes (all on NFL rosters at the moment). He couldn't keep them, but he inherited them.

 

[KBVol]

Being a Bears fan I would say you are crazy.
85 Bears, I don't think so.

Did you read the context? Poking fun at a sycophantic Dooley poster on here. Sarcasm chief.

 

[triadvolfan]

Fulmer was only allowed 2 bad seasons in what??? Like 16 years.

Why should Butch get a pass....

If he has two bad seasons toss his a$$.

4 seasons prior to Fulmer taking over full time, 38-6-2.

4 seasons prior to Butch taking over, 23-27.

Let's give him some time.

 

[sjt18]

Buckle up boys. Regardless of what happens CBJ will be our coach for at least the next 4 years.

That's what many said about Dooley.

If Jones does not do better than many if not most here expect this fall... say 6-6... then he follows up with what is probably reasonable to expect for next fall... something worse than this year... THEN he needs a miracle to save his job in '15.

I think he is capable of "shocking" people this fall. I think he has a roster good enough to "shock" people this fall. I hope he DOES shock people this fall.

If not... I full well expect to see another coaching search and hire in around 3 years.

 

[sjt18]

Butch has inherited a better situation.

However, let's not pretend the situation butch walked into is good.

There isn't proven talent anywhere except the offensive line.

Couch, McCullers, and Hood have all proven they are SEC caliber DT's.

AJ has proven he can play.

Randolph has proven he can play.

Neal and Lane had good ypc numbers last year and combined for well over 1000 yds in a passing O.


So no... he doesn't walk into a situation with alot of certainty. But it is inaccurate to say there is no other prove talent... there's not much but there are other guys who have proven they can play.

 

[sjt18]

Dooley didn't have to start with Matt Simms. All the players knew Bray was the better qb all spring and fall camp. Gerald Jones was shocked Bray wasn't starting game one.

Bray was a head case when he left- and for his career prior to that. Simms lacked talent. The OL was young and porous... not exactly a winning hand but Simms was the logical choice having some time in a college level program. Putting Bray behind the OL as it began the season would have been a big mistake.

Question for you here... how many Fr were starting for that O by the end of the season? How many will start this fall? That kind of tells you about the relative strength of the offensive rosters each guy inherited.

DD also had playmakers, something this team desperarately needs. Jones would kill for a Denarius Moore or Janzen Jackson.

D Moore had not earned that credibility prior to '10. He was a good but not great WR to that point. Jones was a #2 WR.

All those so called "worst" positions that Dooley inherited can be argued.

No. They really can't. You have to pretty much deny reality to argue it. Jones doesn't inherit a great situation but he doesn't inherit a complete disaster and depleted roster either. There has been attrition in the previous 3 classes... but not complete class busts like 07/09 or the #35 class of 08.

Runningback is a push

No it isn't. Not even close. I am one of the few guys around here who respects what Poole accomplished. But he had under 200 yards for his CAREER when Dooley arrived. Neal had more than that as a true Fr as did Lane. They combined for 1366 yds last fall and around a 5 ypc avg.

Secondary had Janzen Jackson and Art Evans(until he got suspended)

I'll take McNeil every day of the week over Art Evans. JJ was more talented but Randolph has talent and isn't a head case.

DL had Gerald Williams, Malik Jackson and Chris Walker.

And NO... as in NONE... DT's. MJ was forced to play out of position. CW played with messed up knees- healthy J Smith>unhealthy CW. I always liked GW but wouldn't trade Miller and Walls for him. The depth of talent along the DL is beyond comparison.

To put this in perspective, Joseph Ayres started games at DT as a 265 lb walk on in DD's first year... This roster has at least 6 and likely more DT's better than that. Miller or Walls could slide over and be better than that.

 

[sjt18]

Dooley inherited Bryce Brown at rb and Aaron Douglass on the line. He was an ass and loser and couldn't keep them. Our secondary is way worse. Look at last year. No Janzen Jacksons or D Myles. We don't have a proven qb now and Bray was better than anyone BJ inherited. BJ signed his two freshman qbs and didn't have one already on campus.

When did Myles contribute?

Douglas left before he even got to know Dooley.

Brown was a prima donna that likely would not have survived Jones either.

 

[windyvol]

I forget the true number on the stat, but generally you lose, on average, 30-45% of any given class by their senior year. If you ask me, that is too significant of a number to ignore. I know you were trying to make a meaningful analysis here and it may look nice, but looks might be deceiving. I honestly don't see how one can take any meaningful insight from it. If you wanted to make a more impactful analysis, why not consider focusing on 2013 and 2014, revising your "class rankings" number based on a 'revisionary ranking' that discludes, namely, all players lost to attrition, then from there take into account how many fr, so, jr, & sr's there are as projected starters for the '13 season and then use your 'class weighting percentage' based on that. Then you still have to ask the question, if there are an equal amount of sophomores to seniors and more juniors than any other class, should my number not reflect that statistic? Secondly, wouldn't the two deep be a better indicator used to better gauge the talent level of the teams being compared?

Just a thought ... I know you worked hard on it and I'm trashing it a little by saying it's entirely insignificant, but in my opinion it has real potential if you were to use the model to focus on current talent level rather than inflated rankings and vague class percentage values.

Totally agree. Good idea, but if you want meaningful data you have to take it a step further and factor in attrition. Players leaving early, getting kicked off the team, and significant offseason injuries have to be factored into consideration.

This year's roster is better than the roster Dooley had his first year. How many scholarship players did he have? 62ish???

 

[D-rock]

Did you read the context? Poking fun at a sycophantic Dooley poster on here. Sarcasm chief.

Ok. Just leave Da' Bears out of it. Chief.
rock on with the sarcasm

 

[KBVol]

Ok. Just leave Da' Bears out of it. Chief.
rock on with the sarcasm

Ok. The '78 Steelers. How's that?