Ever look at a world map man?
In your alternate reality, pick whatever country you think is the 2nd most powerful military after us....OK?
Now...tell us how the Hell they are gonna keep us from taking over Cuba???
If that analogy doesnt pull your head out of your arse a bit, we may need heavy equipment like a calf puller I guess.
Logistics matter. Distance matters. Having a country of 1.6 Billion people and their military a stones throw away matters. To think we could stop China from taking Taiwan without nuclear weapons or a draft and full commitment to WW3 by our government and population is stupid and juvenile....and guess how many people are willing to usher in WW3 over a tiny island nation in Asia in 2021? Yep. Bout ZERO
I've been thinking about this since last night, and I still don't fully agree, and still am not completely sure why I see a difference. You are right; Taiwan is largely un-defendable because of proximity, but there are a lot of issues.
The Nationalist Chinese hate China, and they will go to their own defense - hopefully they haven't turned into a nation of pansies like we have. Fairly recently (probably except for raw numbers) their military was considered stronger than China's military. So Taiwan will fight - which would be pretty different from other places we've tried to help.
If China were to invade Taiwan, it's likely the battle would decimate Taiwan. Other than chest thumping, what would China really gain from an island with all its manufacturing and industrial know how gutted.
We have a lot of assets in the region. Okinawa is very close in modern day distances, and we have several bases including an impressive AF base and munition storage capacity there. The Japanese themselves have quite a military presence there have - mostly self defense; they have taken over our old Hawk and Nike bases and put Patriots there. The Naha airport at the south end of the island has a squadron of F-15s and a Patriot battery, and they are at a safer distance.
The Chinese have an impressive AF on paper and a severe problem with engine durability - I guess with the population land mass they have, that may be logistically managed. Air power and missiles could decimate Taiwan, but again to what end other than chest thumping. Crossing water and getting onshore with a critical mass is still the kind of problem it always has been, and that's about the only way to take the island and preserve the industry.
If Taiwan were attacked, it would signal Chinese aggressive will to a number of other countries in the region - S Korea and Japan certainly would have a lot to lose and a lot to defend, and defense isn't always sitting back and waiting. Countries between Australia and Taiwan would have a lot to lose and probably most wouldn't see Chinese occupation as desirable - that can change odds - especially if the Philippines became our buddies again.
I wouldn't want to be the one calculating the odds and making the decisions, but I'm also not sure it's as bleak as it appears. We could certainly boycott everything Chinese (painfully thanks to globalists) in the event they attack Taiwan; with our trade and lax security we are certainly and stupidly guilty of funding and providing the technology and industry that made the Chinese military what it is. The big question is would the rest of the world boycott China with us. I guess I see Chinese invasion of Taiwan as potentially one of those win the battle and lose the war things for China ... all hinging on world willpower.
In the end I'd almost bet the Chinese just play the time honored long game, but the CCP does seem willing to be less rational and traditional.