Tennessee Ranked #7 (8th seed) in the CFP Rankings

[JohnWardForever]

That’s the benefit of being the greatest Cheating dynasty in college sports history

Now then.

 

[sami]

Remember back in the early 2010s when Oregon would run up the score against subpar Pac 12 teams. Then they play a team with athletes like Auburn and gets exposed. Indiana is a well coached team that is playing good football. But there's a reason people recruit 5-star athletes over 3-star athletes. Because in the long run talent wins out. If Indiana plays Ohio State close and performs well in the playoffs I'll be the first to give them their credit. But I gotta see it to believe it.

As a Tennessee fan I'd rather see them and their 3-star athletes in the playoffs than a team like Alabama for a second time or an LSU or A&M with their 5-star athletes all over the field.

I'll take an Indiana playoff matchup in a second. I see their #9 ranking being referred to as "underrated" because of how inflated the perception is of the Big 10, which is every much as crummy a conference overall as the ACC and Big 12.

The problem is that because the hack national media is primarily northern based as are most of the "committee" members, Indiana and Penn State will be playoff teams without ever having played anyone besides Ohio State.

 

[sami]

I think you are strongly underestimating their resume. They beat Nebraska 56-7, the same Nebraska team that lost by 4 to #2 Ohio State . The same Nebraska that beat #20 Colorado. They have won every game by at least 14. They beat Mich state at Mich state by greater margins than Oregon or Ohio state did and Oregon was at Oregon. They beat UCLA by 29 at UCLA, which is much more than Oregon did And much more than Penn State AND LSU did both playing at home.

As has been stated, Indiana is a solid, well coached team that has played nobody. Basing results on comparing what one mediocre team did to another is meaningless when you're talking about overall mediocrity. Give them even a decent SEC schedule and they're minimum a 3-4 loss team with that talent level.

 

[VFL-82-JP]

Yah, still a lot of football to be played. This will change considerably in coming weeks, though I think some of the bones are already in place.

Here's how I think the final Top 6 will be seeded come December:

#1 Ohio State

#2 Miami

#3 Tennessee

#4 BYU

#5 Oregon

#6 Texas

Yep, I do believe Ohio St will steal the B10 crown from Oregon, under the conventional wisdom that it's hard to beat a peer twice in one season. Ohio St gets their revenge on the Ducks in the B10 CG.

The #3 spot is hope more than certainty. The Vols-UGa game could go either way, and then the SEC CG vs either A&M or Texas could go either way, too. But we have just as good a shot at the SEC champ spot in the playoffs as any of those others.

Miami and BYU seem to be likely to stay where they are, more or less. BYU does still play Utah, and anything can happen in that annual match. Otherwise, those two are almost destined to be their conference champs.

I do think Oregon will fall into the coveted #5 spot after losing to Ohio St. Just can't see the CFP committee penalizing them very much for a B10 CG loss. Same goes for Texas at #6 (yes, I think Texas beats A&M before getting to Atlanta). Those two could flip-flop, particularly if the B10 CG is a blowout loss for Oregon (not likely) while the SEC CG is close (likely). So the SEC could steal #5 away. We'll see.

After that, a WHOLE lot more could change. Including Tennessee being somewhere in the #6 to #8 spots if we lose to UGa or to Texas in the CG.

Good football still ahead.

Go Vols!

 

[BernardKingGOAT]

I don't think we can get in at 10-2. Maybe if the Georgia loss is a last second field goal or OT, but chances are slim of we lose in Athens.

Not really. The Big 12 and ACC are likely to only get their champions in the playoffs. A close loss at Georgia keeps us firmly in the playoffs

 

[ArmchairQB]

First off, GBO, beat Mississippi State! Nothing else matters, yet. That said...

Check my math on this but... We want aTm to beat Texas. More than that, throwing up in my mouth a little bit but we want Alabama to beat LSU.

So long as we take care of business against Georgia and win out, and Alabama beats LSU, we're playing winner of aTm-Texas in Atlanta. If LSU wins, there's a tiebreak scenario where we don't go even if we win out.

Let's say Tennessee, LSU and Texas win out, and we're all 7-1 in conference. The tie breakers are:

A. Head-to-head competition among the tied teams: None of us play each other

B. Record versus all common Conference opponents among the tied teams: Opponents common to all three teams are Oklahoma, Arkansas, Florida, Vanderbilt. LSU's loss (aTm) and Texas's loss (Alabama) aren't to a common opponent of all three, and Arkansas is, so we'd be odd team out.

If it's a 3-way tie the other way and aTm wins the Lone Star Showdown, then it's us, LSU and aTm. We don't play either of them. aTm beat LSU head to head. So we're in on the first tie breaker and would play aTm. But LSU beating Alabama and getting into that 3-way tie would mean we needed an outcome from a game we're not in.

If Alabama beats LSU and we beat Georgia, that means Texas vs aTm decides who the only other one loss team is. So y'all saying you want LSU to win can just stop I would hate to see us at 7-1 and not getting to Atlanta because LSU and Texas both won.

 

[Golfprovol]

And we lost to an unranked

Yet we have beaten ranked teams, have a stronger strength of schedule. Their SOS is 103....

 

[Golfprovol]

True, but they still pass the eye test, just like we did vs NC State, Chattanooga, & Kent State. Take off your orange goggles.

They have played 2 teams with a current winning record and both of those teams are 5-4.

 

[VFL-82-JP]

Not really. The Big 12 and ACC are likely to only get their champions in the playoffs. A close loss at Georgia keeps us firmly in the playoffs

I think that's right.

As it stands right now, four SEC teams are included (UGa at #2, Tex at #6, Vols at #7, and Bama at #11). I think we will remain at four teams as long as there remain four with no more than 2 losses. And that seems likely:

When LSU and Bama play, one has to lose: third loss. They're out. The other is in.
A&M loses to Texas, third loss. They're out.
Ole Miss loses to UGa, third loss. They're out.
Mizzou is already out, they suck even with just 2 losses.

So that leaves UGa (1 loss in this scenario leading to Atlanta), Texas (1 loss leading to Atlanta), the Vols (2 losses in this scenario) and Bama/LSU winner (2 losses). After the SEC CG, there will be one team with 1-loss, and three teams with 2-losses. Those four teams will be in the playoffs.

And Bernard, I think you're right that we have to play UGa close. An ugly loss could drop us down to Mizzou levels in the polls, which we wouldn't be able to recover from.

Best bet, though, is let's just win out.

Go Vols!

 

[VFL-82-JP]

First off, GBO, beat Mississippi State! Nothing else matters, yet. That said...

Check my math on this but... We want aTm to beat Texas. More than that, throwing up in my mouth a little bit but we want Alabama to beat LSU.

So long as we take care of business against Georgia and win out, and Alabama beats LSU, we're playing winner of aTm-Texas in Atlanta. If LSU wins, there's a tiebreak scenario where we don't go even if we win out.

Let's say Tennessee, LSU and Texas win out, and we're all 7-1 in conference. The tie breakers are:

A. Head-to-head competition among the tied teams: None of us play each other

B. Record versus all common Conference opponents among the tied teams: Opponents common to all three teams are Oklahoma, Arkansas, Florida, Vanderbilt. LSU's loss (aTm) and Texas's loss (Alabama) aren't to a common opponent of all three, and Arkansas is, so we'd be odd team out.

If it's a 3-way tie the other way and aTm wins the Lone Star Showdown, then it's us, LSU and aTm. We don't play either of them. aTm beat LSU head to head. So we're in on the first tie breaker and would play aTm. But LSU beating Alabama and getting into that 3-way tie would mean we needed an outcome from a game we're not in.

If Alabama beats LSU and we beat Georgia, that means Texas vs aTm decides who the only other one loss team is. So y'all saying you want LSU to win can just stop I would hate to see us at 7-1 and not getting to Atlanta because LSU and Texas both won.

Yah, checking your math, I think you got it dead-on right.

If we win out, and EITHER A&M beats Texas OR Bama beats LSU, we're in the SEC CG. Either/or. Which is good for us, gives us a roughly 75% chance of getting to Atlanta as long as we take care of our own business.

So let's do that.

Go Vols!

 

[lostsheep]

I don’t think Indians would give us too much trouble. Oregon? I don’t know if we could win that one.

Same thing Custer said prior to Battle of Little Bighorn...didn't turn out so well.

 

[TheVolunteer002]

Just avoid the banana peel(s) still on the schedule

 

[VolCalls]

Barely. After blowing out everyone else before the natty. The point there is blowing out subpar competition doesn't tell you how a team will do when they face real competition.

Like Arkansas?

 

[Kylo]

It’s not a silly take at all and good for you. Instigating is never a good look btw.

Nah. I think it was only mildly instigating. That is way down the list of things I'm guilty of in my time here. No hate intended. Playful banter, perhaps.

 

[knoxvol52]

Not really. The Big 12 and ACC are likely to only get their champions in the playoffs. A close loss at Georgia keeps us firmly in the playoffs

Yes, it has to be a close loss can't be defeated by 14+ that will put Vols fans into handwringers mode.

Especially if LSU beats Alabama this Saturday Night.

 

[HighRockvol]

Boom! Let's end this season on a high note!

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Of course bama the only two loss team in it

 

[IndianaVol]

For selfish reasons, i would LOVE to host Indiana in that 1st round game at Neyland.
IU fans today have been cackling that this team is NOT the same team that we 'gimmicked' in 2020 at the Gator bowl, and they don't even bring up the '88 Peach Bowl.

Would love to shut the bandwagons up around here.

 

[901 Orange]

Who have they beat? They have yet to play a ranked team

facts. Maybe I'm biased but I feel like we would destroy Indiana.

 

[Golfprovol]

facts. Maybe I'm biased but I feel like we would destroy Indiana.

I do as well especially in Knoxville

 

[dobre_shunka]

Good point. The big 10 sucks. They always think Ohio state is a big win against Penn state and I never understand that

Warde Manuel explains separation between Tennessee, Penn State in initial CFP rankings

“Well, Penn State lost to the No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes, and it was a game that went back and forth, and obviously a game that could have gone the other way. It was back and forth,” said Manuel during Tuesday’s teleconference. “In that, they have wins over Illinois and Southern Cal in overtime, an opening win at West Virginia, which is difficult to play. So we looked at their body of work.

Tennessee has an impressive win over Alabama at No. 11 and wins over North Carolina State and Oklahoma, 4-1 against teams above .500. The loss at Arkansas was something that we discussed a lot,”

 

[orangepenez]

why is Texas ahead of Tennessee? they have no good win.

Good point. Vandy is looking like their best win. My guess is b/c TX lost to UGA and we lost to Arkansas.

 

[deatojl]

Warde Manuel explains separation between Tennessee, Penn State in initial CFP rankings

“Well, Penn State lost to the No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes, and it was a game that went back and forth, and obviously a game that could have gone the other way. It was back and forth,” said Manuel during Tuesday’s teleconference. “In that, they have wins over Illinois and Southern Cal in overtime, an opening win at West Virginia, which is difficult to play. So we looked at their body of work.

Tennessee has an impressive win over Alabama at No. 11 and wins over North Carolina State and Oklahoma, 4-1 against teams above .500. The loss at Arkansas was something that we discussed a lot,”

This is one of the more asinine explanations I have seen. Basically, PSU is getting credit from the playoff committee for winning at 4-4 West Virginia because it is a difficult place to play(btw 3 of their 4 losses are at home), struggling to beat 6-3 Illinois at home(who just got destroyed by Oregon and beat at home by Minnesota in back to back weeks), and escaping what should have been a loss in OT at 4-5 powerhouse USC. Those three amazingly astonishing feats, coupled with a 7 point home loss to the only ranked team they have played, is their justification for them being ahead of Tennessee. I get that they have the better loss but our wins over Florida, Oklahoma, and NC State are as good or better than the wins Manuel cited for PSU and that isn't even including the Bama win, who the committee thinks is good enough for a playoff spot right now with two losses. As odd as this is to say, I agree with the Bammer Greg McElroy that we actually have a legitimate argument to be ahead of both Penn State and Texas.

 

[Dobbs 4 Heisman]

Like Arkansas?

Our claim to being a title contender is based on our talent just like the Alabama's and Georgia's of the world not our resume. Great teams sometimes sleep walk in games against decent competition. That's what happened to us against Arkansas. Same thing happened to Georgia against Kentucky. Ohio State against Nebraska. Alabama against Vanderbilt.

It's the Indiana's of the world that on paper aren't built to win championships that have to validate their position through their resume rather than the eye test cause the eye test ain't gonna favor them.

 

[Volfan1000]

Boom! Let's end this season on a high note!

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We owe Indiana some payback for that basketball exhibition loss.

 

[sami]

This is one of the more asinine explanations I have seen. Basically, PSU is getting credit from the playoff committee for winning at 4-4 West Virginia because it is a difficult place to play(btw 3 of their 4 losses are at home), struggling to beat 6-3 Illinois at home(who just got destroyed by Oregon and beat at home by Minnesota in back to back weeks), and escaping what should have been a loss in OT at 4-5 powerhouse USC. Those three amazingly astonishing feats, coupled with a 7 point home loss to the only ranked team they have played, is their justification for them being ahead of Tennessee. I get that they have the better loss but our wins over Florida, Oklahoma, and NC State are as good or better than the wins Manuel cited for PSU and that isn't even including the Bama win, who the committee thinks is good enough for a playoff spot right now with two losses. As odd as this is to say, I agree with the Bammer Greg McElroy that we actually have a legitimate argument to be ahead of both Penn State and Texas.

Nailed it. I would only add that playing a Big 10 schedule is a joke compared to even an average SEC schedule. The SEC has only two bad teams at the moment in Auburn and Miss. St. (maybe Kentucky due to injuries), while the Big 10 has around 8-9, with Washington and Michigan being simply mediocre. I guarantee they don't have a second division team as tough to beat in their stadium anything like USCjr or Florida.