Subject to change based on preseason injuries, expulsions, etc. here are my SEC preseason picks with record and some explanation:
SEC West:
1. Auburn (12-0). Even if AU is not quite as good as expected their schedule is perfect with 4 nonconference cupcakes and all quality opponents at home. I think they beat LSU, the primary competition in the West, at the plains thus securing the head-to-head tiebreaker agasint the Bayou Bengals. I could see the Aubies dropping one to either UF or UGA along the way which would pretty much screw up my whole SEC East projeciton. If they do somehow get to the Iron Bowl without a loss I would not be the least bit surprised to see the Tide bite them in the a$$ and ruin the BCS championship dreams.
2. LSU (10-2). I'm not sure if Arizona and Fresno St. were competitive when LSU scheduled them but they sure aren't now. The nonconference schedule is walk in the park. LSU does have three brutal road games at AU, UT and UF. I'm going to get ballsy and go ahead and call LSU's regular season losses at AU and K-town.
3. Ole Miss (9-3). Please nod your head if you are now convinced that I have lost my mind, assuming I ever had it in the first place. I've got two words for those of you who are now nodding like you are affected by Tourette's Syndrome, Brent Schaeffer. I don't think he's the be-all-end-all or anything, but he will keep Coach O out of the fryin' pan for a little longer. Look for the Rebs to take their hits against UGA, AU and LSU. I'm calling suprise road wins at Mizzou, Bama and Arky.
4. Arkansas (6-6). Attention Pigs...the Mustain renaissance will not begin this year. I'm not about to jump on the Nutt bandwagon. Look for Woooo Pig whoopins from USC, AU, Ole Miss, S.Carolina, UT and LSU.
5. Alabama (6-6). The toughest nonconference foe looks to be Duke. Throw in Vandy and Miss St. and six wins are pretty much a lock. Losses to Arky, UF, Ole Miss, UT, LSU, and AU will put Shula straight into the fire (forget the frying pan). I could actually see the Tide taking 4th with a win over Arkansas and finishing 7-5.
6. Miss St. (4-8). I'm assuming they can get the road win at UAB.
SEC East:
1. Tennessee (11-1). We do it the old school Fulmer way. Loose to Florida, beat UGA and hope to heck that somebody covers our loss for us.
2. S.Carolina (10-2). Spurrier proves that last year was no fluke and he does it in style with wins against divisional rivals UF and UGA and in-state rival Clemson. Only losses to AU and UT sully the record. You can't spell "citrus" without "USC" So what if it's the Capital One now?
3. Florida (8-4). I am confident that our resident Gators will dissect this one into oblivion, but I'm thinking that UF beats UT early and adds a big win against UGA. However, the LSU and Auburn games loom large and I'm sticking them both in the the "L" column. Add a loss to the Ole Ball Coach, I know that's gonna' sting, and a loss to Fl.St. and you see where I'm coming from. If UF looses to UT, I fully expect a serious QB controversy and we might see the wheels come off the bus for the Gator Nation ala the '05 Vols.
4. Georgia (8-4). Even with a great defense, it's hard to win with a sputtering offense. Tereshinski sure 'aint going to get it done for the Dawgs. Look for Stafford to be the starter half way through the season as Richt decides to look toward the future. Losses to S.Car, UT, UF and AU. I know people will balk about the UT over UGA call. My brief analysis of that game is that the Dawgs will not be able to throw on UT's secondary this year. The Georgia running game is weak. UT will hand it off to Foster 35+ times and repeat the stunner of 2004.
5. Kentucky (5-7). This might be considered a rebound in Lexington. Losses to Louisville (that one will probably be the catalyst for firing Rich Brooks), Ole Miss, UF, S.Car, LSU, UGA and UT.
6. Vandy (2-10). Life without Cutler is going to be hell on West End. Guaranteed losses to Michigan, Bama, Arky, UGA, S.Car, UF and UT. If my Ole Miss theory holds up count that road game a loss. Add a pair of road losses to fellow cellar dwellers, but home favorites, Duke and KY and it looks like the only win over a 1A opponent this year will be Temple.