Thank God! A Voice of Reason! Czech President Klaus ready to debate Gore on climate c

#26
#26
TennTradition said:
The rush to ethanol has little to do with seeking energy independence and everything to do with seeking votes and favor. The scientific community showed some time ago that corn-based ethanol buys you very little as far as energy return goes, yet we continue to invest more money into this form of energy than any other alternative (in the form of subsidies). It is amazing to me that it hasn't stopped yet...and I keep saying, the end is near...but it hasn't slowed yet.
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I'm with you.
 
#29
#29
TennTradition said:
The rush to ethanol has little to do with seeking energy independence and everything to do with seeking votes and favor. The scientific community showed some time ago that corn-based ethanol buys you very little as far as energy return goes, yet we continue to invest more money into this form of energy than any other alternative (in the form of subsidies). It is amazing to me that it hasn't stopped yet...and I keep saying, the end is near...but it hasn't slowed yet.
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I believe the same about global warming/climate change.
 
#30
#30
OrangeEmpire said:
Who thought it was a good idea to make food an energy source?
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There is no doubt that there are scientists who have worked on corn-based ethanol and didn't stop to think about the economic implications of doing so. However, long ago these factors were identified, pointed out, harped on, and nothing was going to stop that boat once it set sail. I've heard a lot of talk recently about an organized campaign to make clear the negative aspects of corn-based ethanol...but I don't know if we'll see it or not. It doesn't make sense economically, scientifically, environmentally, etc....
 
#31
#31
TennTradition said:
The rush to ethanol has little to do with seeking energy independence and everything to do with seeking votes and favor. The scientific community showed some time ago that corn-based ethanol buys you very little as far as energy return goes, yet we continue to invest more money into this form of energy than any other alternative (in the form of subsidies). It is amazing to me that it hasn't stopped yet...and I keep saying, the end is near...but it hasn't slowed yet.
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This is really my point - the rhetoric that was used by those trying to create policy was an idealistic statement.

I believe the Czech dude was making the same point - that the policy changes that are favored by some are cloaked in the "survival of humanity" ideal and thus are harder to argue against.
 
#32
#32
volinbham said:
Yet we frequently see means to ensure ideals having unanticipated and negative consequences. (e.g. rush to ethanol to ensure energy independence).

I think his point is exaggerated but to use a blanket "it's for the survival of humanity" rationale for specific programs and policies is problematic as well.
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On the bold part - I agree, and I didn't say that (or at least didn't intend to). I agree 100% that ethanol, e.g., is bogus.

I also believe the scientists who have been tracking climate change know what they're talking about, and we should take them seriously. Yes, I believe global warming is real, and it's in our interests to try to do something about it.
 
#33
#33
TennNC said:
On the bold part - I agree, and I didn't say that (or at least didn't intend to). I agree 100% that ethanol, e.g., is bogus.

I also believe the scientists who have been tracking climate change know what they're talking about, and we should take them seriously. Yes, I believe global warming is real, and it's in our interests to try to do something about it.
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How?

The earth has gone through heating and cooling for billions of years. Why is it now a problem?

:dunno:
 
#34
#34
KB5252 said:
I believe the same about global warming/climate change.
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I think that they are very different animals when it comes to the science, though. It is much easier to show that corn ethanol takes almost as much energy to produce as it gives you than it is to show that humans influence climate. The latter takes many years, many computer simulations, and the analysis of many, many contributing factors. It is a much harder problem to address, which is why you have some scientists who disagree with the conclusions thus far - citing that there isn't enough evidence yet and that the models are still flawed. You don't really see that with ethanol...though there are always arguments to be made. I don't think that Congress will act on climate change to gain votes...because Americans don't *really* care about climate change (IMO). If they act it will because they are convinced that action is necessary based on the scientific arguments...and maybe some international pressure/cooperation. Corn farmers definitely care about ethanol.
 
#35
#35
TennTradition said:
I think that they are very different animals when it comes to the science, though. It is much easier to show that corn ethanol takes almost as much energy to produce as it gives you than it is to show that humans influence climate. The latter takes many years, many computer simulations, and the analysis of many, many contributing factors. It is a much harder problem to address, which is why you have some scientists who disagree with the conclusions thus far - citing that there isn't enough evidence yet and that the models are still flawed. You don't really see that with ethanol...though there are always arguments to be made. I don't think that Congress will act on climate change to gain votes...because Americans don't *really* care about climate change (IMO). If they act it will because they are convinced that action is necessary based on the scientific arguments...and maybe some international pressure/cooperation. Corn farmers definitely care about ethanol.
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You are a very reasonable person!

:hi:
 
#37
#37
OrangeEmpire said:
How?

The earth has gone through heating and cooling for billions of years. Why is it now a problem?

:dunno:
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Agree. We simply do not have enough info compiled. These models are always having to be tweaked for some unknown equation that was not accounted for. If it is real I would be on board TennNC, I just need more info before I jump in.
 
#38
#38
I believe in global warming, cooling and climate change.

It is all normal..... I'll take billions of years vs the past 30.

Maybe it is just me but wouldn't the climate have been hotter during the indulstrial revolution than now if we were the cause of every thing wrong in the world?
 
#39
#39
TennTradition said:
I think that they are very different animals when it comes to the science, though. It is much easier to show that corn ethanol takes almost as much energy to produce as it gives you than it is to show that humans influence climate. The latter takes many years, many computer simulations, and the analysis of many, many contributing factors. It is a much harder problem to address, which is why you have some scientists who disagree with the conclusions thus far - citing that there isn't enough evidence yet and that the models are still flawed. You don't really see that with ethanol...though there are always arguments to be made. I don't think that Congress will act on climate change to gain votes...because Americans don't *really* care about climate change (IMO). If they act it will because they are convinced that action is necessary based on the scientific arguments...and maybe some international pressure/cooperation. Corn farmers definitely care about ethanol.
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Good point. I just believe we need more info before we can make predictions about the global climate..........Hell we can't even get the local weather right all the time!:)
 
#40
#40
OrangeEmpire said:
How?

The earth has gone through heating and cooling for billions of years. Why is it now a problem?

:dunno:
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Do you really not see that if the science is right that these natural increases in temperature will now be even higher - causing problems that we (because we now live in a global community) will have to deal with such as increased pressure on food supply, land availability, fresh water, etc.? No one denies that the earth has its ups and its downs...the question is will we make it even worse? Even within the climate change arguments, the human impact isn't really all that large (maybe 3 or 4 degrees C) - yet it is believed that this will be enough to upset some areas in a delicate balance.

I see what you are saying...but I don't know if the argument that the earth has its cycles and will do what it will do is solid enough to say that man can't impact these cycles and make them worse...making it harder for us to adapt.
 
#41
#41
TennTradition said:
Do you really not see that if the science is right that these natural increases in temperature will now be even higher - causing problems that we (because we now live in a global community) will have to deal with such as increased pressure on food supply, land availability, fresh water, etc.? No one denies that the earth has its ups and its downs...the question is will we make it even worse? Even within the climate change arguments, the human impact isn't really all that large (maybe 3 or 4 degrees C) - yet it is believed that this will be enough to upset some areas in a delicate balance.
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How are WE causing any of this?

As a human do we believe we have reached the zenith of superiority over the earth?

Why do we have to be the problem?
 
#42
#42
OrangeEmpire said:
I believe in global warming, cooling and climate change.

It is all normal..... I'll take billions of years vs the past 30.

Maybe it is just me but wouldn't the climate have been hotter during the indulstrial revolution than now if we were the cause of every thing wrong in the world?
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I'm not really sure I get the argument about the industrial revolution part. Our emissions are much higher today than they were then. Also, the half life of CO2 in the atmosphere is about 100 years...so it isn't short lived. We were able to fix a lot of the sulfur aerosol problems that existed in the 70s relatively quickly because their half-life was only about 2 weeks. Once we cut emissions, the problem went away. However, that isn't the case with CO2.

But...that is somewhat disconnected to your point...emissions have continued increasing since that time and CO2 has continued building...it is now around 400 ppm, up from 280 ppm at pre-industrial levels.
 
#43
#43
TennTradition said:
I'm not really sure I get the argument about the industrial revolution part. Our emissions are much higher today than they were then. Also, the half life of CO2 in the atmosphere is about 100 years...so it isn't short lived. We were able to fix a lot of the sulfur aerosol problems that existed in the 70s relatively quickly because their half-life was only about 2 weeks. Once we cut emissions, the problem went away. However, that isn't the case with CO2.

But...that is somewhat disconnected to your point...emissions have continued increasing since that time and CO2 has continued building...it is now around 400 ppm, up from 280 ppm at pre-industrial levels.
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I wasn't arguing any thing, I was waiting for someone to say that was the start of man made climate change.

I'll never get it because I don't have the faith in my fellow human to be able to control the earth's climate.
 
#44
#44
TennNC said:
On the bold part - I agree, and I didn't say that (or at least didn't intend to). I agree 100% that ethanol, e.g., is bogus.

I also believe the scientists who have been tracking climate change know what they're talking about, and we should take them seriously. Yes, I believe global warming is real, and it's in our interests to try to do something about it.
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How do you account for the influence of solar flares on the climate?

Physics News Update

Unless some other underlying cause is responsible for the unlikely correspondence between solar flares and the earth's temperature, the research suggests that for the large part variations in global temperatures are beyond our control and are instead at the mercy of the sun's activity.
 
#45
#45
but where is the evidence that CO2 causes warming? all the evidence collected thus far points to increased CO2 levels coinciding with cooling periods.
 
#46
#46
OrangeEmpire said:
How are WE causing any of this?

As a human do we believe we have reached the zenith of superiority over the earth?

Why do we have to be the problem?
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The earth's natural system will swing temperatures in one area over 40 degrees in mere days...so no...we obviously cannot match the earth's natural power over the conditions it imposes on us. If the earth enters an ice age, then we've got serious problems and this discussion isn't even near that scale. If the earth's orbit shifts and we heat up 20 or more degrees, then this argument is a moot point. I don't know..maybe she will....

What I do know is that outside of those huge swings, the earth's fairly stable. We see average temperature increases and decreases on near-decadal cycles, driven primarily by ocean currents and somewhat by solar output (very little by the latter). As we increase greenhouse gas concentration, each time the earth heats up naturally, it will heat up a little more than it used to because the greenhouse gases trap more of the sun's radiation inside our atmosphere. The temperatures will go back down - naturally...though not quite as low as they would have if the gases weren't there. All this time, more and more greenhouse gases are accumulating, and this natural cycle is ramping up the whole time...instead of keeping the same amplitude and trough...each are slowly increasing in magnitude. Sure, something could upset this balance and make these small changes seem like nothing - but then we would be talking about mass-deaths (such as an ice age or 20 degree temperature increases) on a scale that we have not seen in recorded history.
 
#47
#47
OrangeEmpire said:
I wasn't arguing any thing, I was waiting for someone to say that was the start of man made climate change.

I'll never get it because I don't have the faith in my fellow human to be able to control the earth's climate.
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Control or influence? We know that humans can impact an areas climate. We have urban heat traps like Atlanta where the temperature is now hotter than it was before because of all of the buildings, roads, etc. We have changed the composition of the earth's rain, making it acidic and wiping out forests. We have influenced natural processes of the earth in other ways...I don't see why this one seems so impossible.
 
#48
#48
MG1968 said:
but where is the evidence that CO2 causes warming? all the evidence collected thus far points to increased CO2 levels coinciding with cooling periods.
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That is not exactly true, if you are speaking of the evidence I think you are speaking of. I think that you are referring to ice-core data, that shows that CO2 spikes lag temperature spikes, not the other way around. But, this argument is entirely different from the man-made climate change argument.

The ice-core data is evidence of a positive feedback mechanism (that operates on a timescale that is significantly slower than the timescale temperature changes on). Man wasn't around to release CO2 back in the day..and volcanoes don't actually release all that much. About the only large source of CO2 input was forest fires, and they cause growth to occur very quickly that then re-absorbs most of this CO2 quite quickly. So, we are in a new era of massive CO2 release causing man-forced increases in CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. This is different than the case of the ice-core data where as temperatures increased for natural reasons (such as orbital shifts or large swings in solar output), the oceans slowly warmed, releasing the CO2 they had been storing (positive feedback). The oceans would continue to mix and heat and release CO2 as it turned over on a long time scale...rising the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere...even after temperatures began to cool back down in the atmosphere (as the natural cycle tended back down).

If you were talking about something else, then my apologies...what I have said here may not apply.
 
#49
#49
TennTradition said:
Control or influence? We know that humans can impact an areas climate. We have urban heat traps like Atlanta where the temperature is now hotter than it was before because of all of the buildings, roads, etc. We have changed the composition of the earth's rain, making it acidic and wiping out forests. We have influenced natural processes of the earth in other ways...I don't see why this one seems so impossible.
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And just like the Marine Corps the Earth adapts, innovates and overcomes.

Why is it now too late and in 20 years every thing is going to burn up?

And to save every one we have to issue carbon cards and take freedoms away?

Honestly, what has changed?
 
#50
#50
So when man made climate change proves to be less of a threat than Iraq was, people going to jump on the preachers of it in a similar fashion?
 
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