"If a player doesn't go low on Thursday, he can kiss his chances bye-bye."
TRUTH. Of course, "low" is a pejorative term at the U.S. Open, but sticking around on the leaderboard should be a prime objective.
Since 2000, no eventual winner has been further back in the pack through the initial 18 holes than Goosen, who was T-20 in 2004. Four of the eight champions were in first or second at the first checkpoint.. This theory is even more advance through 36 holes, as no champ this decade has been lower than Michael Campbell, who was T-6 on Friday night at Pinehurst in 2005.
As for the Tiger factor, well, it's pretty simple: If he's leading on Thursday evening, start engraving the trophy. Each of his two U.S. Open victories have been in wire-to-wire fashion.