Who are your runners-up?
Group D is the biggest head-scratcher to me. England should clearly be the favorite, but they're without Rooney for the first two, and always seem to fall short in international competition, but FFF isn't in great shape right now. On the other hand, you've got Sweden who's never really been a threat for the championship, but always make it farther than they should, and Elmander and Ibrahimovic seem to be in pretty good form.
I wouldn't be surprised to see any of the three either win the group or not make it out altogether.