The bottom

#26
#26
volfanhill said:
It's funny you say that. My wife have been working from home since Covid. She told me a few weeks ago her boss was insisting she come back to the office and was asking my advice. I advised she tell her boss she will come back to the office for a $20,000 raise. She really values being at home. She told her boss that. He said he would get back to her. He called a few days later and said you can work from home.

Always know your value and never back down from it
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A $20 k raise would almost bring me back to where my purchasing power stood the last day Trump sat in the Oval Office šŸ˜¢
 
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#28
#28
lawgator1 said:
In my own experience a huge problem is the expectation amongst young professionals that the work from home model is just fine with employers.

Employers who are okay with that should be executed in painful ways because they are screwing over those of us who need people to f'Ing show up.
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As the House of Representatives under Nancy still allows remote voting by proxy of course šŸ™„
 
#29
#29
McDad said:
My daughter works from home...actually from Italy this month. She gets her 8 hours completed in 5 +/-.
What's it matter if they watch PiR as long as the work is done?
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We did some research at my last position and we found similar benefits with letting employees work remote.
 
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#30
#30
The economy is still teetering on a major disaster in my opinion. Manufacturing is in a very strange place. Sales look good but many are scraping by on supplies to make the parts and make those sales actually happen.

It is still a grind on a daily basis to fully assemble items. If I took my worst supply chain day ever,(over 25 years) , prior to Covid, I can say literally everyday is like that day now.
 
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#32
#32
lawgator1 said:
Dow closes at 30,630 today.

Are we at the bottom? I think we bounce tomorrow and maybe next week is slightly to the green overall.

But then I think it's downslope again for a bit. Bottom 28k? Predictions?
Click to expand...

What we have now is something different than recent stock market pullbacks. This pullback is accompanied by near double digit inflation. Most younger people in business and the market today have not seen this setup before. They are conditioned, because it's a recession, to think the fed will soon ease...there will be some sort of QE, stimmy checks or government magic. I think the market has priced in a rate ease soon after the next two hikes. They don't realize the amount of money firehosed into the system since '08 is not normal and is a large part of the problem. This is closer to a 70's style setup when rates had to be raised drastically at the expense of everything else including the market. The fed may have to leave rates higher for an extended time now to get it under control. It could take a few years and the market will have to adjust....downward.
 
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#34
#34
Ernest T. Vol said:
What we have now is something different than recent stock market pullbacks. This pullback is accompanied by near double digit inflation. Most younger people in business and the market today have not seen this setup before. They are conditioned, because it's a recession, to think the fed will soon ease...there will be some sort of QE, stimmy checks or government magic. I think the market has priced in a rate ease soon after the next two hikes. They don't realize the amount of money firehosed into the system since '08 is not normal and is a large part of the problem. This is closer to a 70's style setup when rates had to be raised drastically at the expense of everything else including the market. The fed may have to leave rates higher for an extended time now to get it under control. It could take a few years and the market will have to adjust....downward.
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The only upside to this, IMO, is you won't see mass layoffs bc of the how screwed the labor market is. And when I say upside I mean in terms to most recessions.
 
#35
#35
Average time to bottom once bear market is entered: 10 weeks

Average pullback from pre bear high: 36%

Weā€™ve got a ways to go till bottom in time and fall to go.
 
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#36
#36
allvol123 said:
The economy is still teetering on a major disaster in my opinion. Manufacturing is in a very strange place. Sales look good but many are scraping by on supplies to make the parts and make those sales actually happen.

It is still a grind on a daily basis to fully assemble items. If I took my worst supply chain day ever,(over 25 years) , prior to Covid, I can say literally everyday is like that day now.
Click to expand...
We are one or two natural disasters or large scale event away from sliding into a multi decade recession/depression.

We are acting terribly irresponsible in moving forward with large scale electric production of vehicles on a grid that can barely support the load it has now. The west is shriveling on the vine, literally.

We are screwed.
 
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#37
#37
lawgator1 said:
Dow closes at 30,630 today.

Are we at the bottom? I think we bounce tomorrow and maybe next week is slightly to the green overall.

But then I think it's downslope again for a bit. Bottom 28k? Predictions?
Click to expand...
Oh, now that you have posted this, I am sure we get to 12k.
 
#38
#38
lawgator1 said:
In my own experience a huge problem is the expectation amongst young professionals that the work from home model is just fine with employers.

Employers who are okay with that should be executed in painful ways because they are screwing over those of us who need people to f'Ing show up.
Click to expand...
...
I'm going to footnote this
 
#39
#39
Covid, shutdowns and government spending has changed everything in a big way.

I like working from home myself because of the money it saves. We were recently told to come into the office some, and it's a good change of pace but sorta hard to adjust back to after being at home for two years. The work schedule is different though. Less collaboration and work gaps which leads to downtime and me checking my phone, but more time I work odd hours because the computer is always on. My neighbor who works for the state said when they try to force young people to come in to work they quit.

Firing people who won't take the vaccine was a bad idea as well. The long list of bad decisions and no real accountability to learn the lessons of covid will just lead to more bad decisions including not confronting the original source of the virus and how it leaked.

This doesn't feel anything like a 1st world capitalist society - from shortages almost EVERYTHING to crime running rapid with the criminals getting more protection than the victims to turning our border to an unsovereign nation. It's going to take good, strong leader to turn this around and it still won't be easy because of all the wrong indicators right now we're stuck with.
 
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#40
#40
The economy lags the DJIA.

The DJIA isnā€™t a proxy for all equities.

The DJIA is composed of large market cap, dividend paying companies.

The DJIA is price weighted. United Health, Goldman, Home Depot, MicroSoft, and McDonaldā€™s create about a third of the price changes in the index. Walgreenā€™s, Intel, Verizon, Cisco, and Coke represent about 5%.

As far as the criteria that move equity markets:

Interest rates arenā€™t done rising. Profits will be impacted for the highest levered companies. Debt will be more and more attractive to buy. States, cities, and the federal government will have higher interest expense to deal with. Higher taxes and the cost to borrow will reduce the ability of consumers to drive the economy.

Inflation wonā€™t get much worse. A lot of it is supply driven. Companies will make more stuff.

The demographics of an aging work force and labor shortages will take about 20 years to return to historically ā€œnormalizedā€ levels.

In regard to the previous point, the US is in better shape than most of the worldā€™s major economies. I think that South Korea might be an exception.

The fast growing mix of retirees will reduce the demand for owning equities.

The economy needs to grow much faster to be able to effectively manage over $30 trillion of national debt.

China. China. China.

Russia. Russia. Russia.

OPEC. OPEC. OPEC.

Just throw a dart. Probably, IMO, going to be flat markets for a while. The bottom isnā€™t here. What stimulus will move markets higher?

Stock picking will be very important. Opportunities in things like defense, infrastructure build out, automation, cloud, e-commerce, rural internet access, healthcare (except possible drug pricing legislation), possibly finance (although the base of borrowers probably shrinks).

If one or both houses flip, then businesses will be less likely to struggle with potentially more stupid policies wrecking our economy.
 
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#41
#41
KB5252 said:
We are one or two natural disasters or large scale event away from sliding into a multi decade recession/depression.

We are acting terribly irresponsible in moving forward with large scale electric production of vehicles on a grid that can barely support the load it has now. The west is shriveling on the vine, literally.

We are screwed.
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Also will add we are still heavily dependent on China with regards to so much of our manufacturing. And Covid has exposed how being dependent on them is a very bad idea. Iā€™ve seen small efforts in my world to become less dependent on them, but it is a drop on the bucket.

In terms of getting out of this current supply cluster, we are still in very bad shape because of this relationship.
 
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#43
#43
KB5252 said:
We are one or two natural disasters or large scale event away from sliding into a multi decade recession/depression.

We are acting terribly irresponsible in moving forward with large scale electric production of vehicles on a grid that can barely support the load it has now. The west is shriveling on the vine, literally.

We are screwed.
Click to expand...

It ain't that bad Nancy.
 
#45
#45
With future rises in interest rates and an almost certain official announcement of a recession in the future I see more downward pressure for the markets. I see the DOW dropping below 25,000....maybe further. NASDAQ will continue to get hammered because of the higher interest rates.
 
#50
#50
KB5252 said:
We are one or two natural disasters or large scale event away from sliding into a multi decade recession/depression.

We are acting terribly irresponsible in moving forward with large scale electric production of vehicles on a grid that can barely support the load it has now. The west is shriveling on the vine, literally.

We are screwed.
Click to expand...
How can you have a perfect grasp of the situation here, but you can't seem to connect the dots between this and our foreign policy?
 
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