The Braves Thread

#230,855
#230,855
Carp said:
IMO, bWAR does a better job capturing actual production since it doesn't use any predictive stats like FIP in it's calculations.
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Sure.. if someone has a long history of consistently underperforming or consistently over performing the underlying metrics then there could be more value in the surface numbers

But on its face id rather have the guy who lined out to center at 110 mph than the guy who hit a 7 hopper through the 5.5
 
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#230,856
#230,856
Carp said:
IMO, bWAR does a better job capturing actual production since it doesn't use any predictive stats like FIP in it's calculations.
Click to expand...
I find myself, fair or not, hinking of it as:

bWAR: "How good were they (that season)?"
fWAR: "How good are they?"

I use to be rigid pro-fWAR, particularly for pitching. Have come off of that a bit.
 
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#230,857
#230,857
TBrown said:
Sure.. if someone has a long history of consistently underperforming or consistently over performing the underlying metrics then there could be more value in the surface numbers

But on its face id rather have the guy who lined out to center at 110 mph than the guy who hit a 7 hopper through the 5.5
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Agreed. Long term I'd rather have the player who over the course of 1 season consistently had hard outs than the guy who consistently had soft hits.

But in 2024, there is no question that Eric Fedde had a more productive season than Pablo Lopez, even if Lopez is far more likely to be the better pitcher going forward. Actual results have got to count for something, even if they are based on pure luck.
 
#230,861
#230,861
zjcvols said:
Seeing guys like Matt Kemp, Nick Markakis and Ryan Braun eligible for HOF voting next year hit me square in the face
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I don't know if the juice did more for any player than it did for Braun. And Kemp should have won MVP in 2011 anyway.

I've been a believer for a while that juicing can move players up a tier, but no more. It makes bad players mediocre, mediocre players good, etc. Braun completely fell off the face of the earth after his positive test. He only made 1 ASG in the 8 seasons after it. It's also kind of wild how anonymous he and that whole story is now. People still talk about Manny and others who juiced; it's like his name never comes up anymore, in either a positive or negative light. He's just totally irrelevant.
 
#230,862
#230,862
05_never_again said:
I don't know if the juice did more for any player than it did for Braun. And Kemp should have won MVP in 2011 anyway.

I've been a believer for a while that juicing can move players up a tier, but no more. It makes bad players mediocre, mediocre players good, etc. Braun completely fell off the face of the earth after his positive test. He only made 1 ASG in the 8 seasons after it. It's also kind of wild how anonymous he and that whole story is now. People still talk about Manny and others who juiced; it's like his name never comes up anymore, in either a positive or negative light. He's just totally irrelevant.
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And don’t forget said the guy who “mishandled” his drug test was an Anti-Semite and smeared his name through the mud
 
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#230,864
#230,864
05_never_again said:
I don't know if the juice did more for any player than it did for Braun. And Kemp should have won MVP in 2011 anyway.

I've been a believer for a while that juicing can move players up a tier, but no more. It makes bad players mediocre, mediocre players good, etc. Braun completely fell off the face of the earth after his positive test. He only made 1 ASG in the 8 seasons after it. It's also kind of wild how anonymous he and that whole story is now. People still talk about Manny and others who juiced; it's like his name never comes up anymore, in either a positive or negative light. He's just totally irrelevant.
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ASG is part reputation, popularity, and overall player quality. He still mashed for a good while after the test and controversy, no?

I also think Manny being... one of the best right handed hitters of all time... compared to Braun being a masher but not near that level keeps Manny in conversations. There's no need to discuss Braun.
 
#230,865
#230,865
zjcvols said:
Also Ramirez, Machado and Arenado all going to be hall of famers I think
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Ramirez and Machado need to continue playing well for another 2-3 years, imo. But they are pretty close to locks.

I don't think Arenado has a very good chance because I think he's about toast as an everyday player and he's only 33. He was extremely similar to Scot Rolen through age 31, but his stats took a nose dive after that. And Rolen remained one of top overall 3b's in baseball for several years after he turned 31. Rolen still barely got in the HOF with 70 career bWAR. Arenado might not even get to 60 career bWAR.
 
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#230,866
#230,866
zjcvols said:
And don’t forget said the guy who “mishandled” his drug test was an Anti-Semite and smeared his name through the mud
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Yeah. You'd figure that aspect of it would keep it as a story that talked about. And his sample, even though it was technically mishandled, waiting a day (or longer) to ship it doesn't turn a negative into a false positive. It could change it into an unreadable/inconclusive.
 
#230,867
#230,867
005 said:
ASG is part reputation, popularity, and overall player quality. He still mashed for a good while after the test and controversy, no?

I also think Manny being... one of the best right handed hitters of all time... compared to Braun being a masher but not near that level keeps Manny in conversations. There's no need to discuss Braun.
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Not exactly. Before the test, Braun was a bonafide 5-tool guy who had an MVP, 2nd place MVP, 3rd place MVP, and 5x Silver Slugger. Hit .313/.374/.568 with a .943 OPS. He was a guy people were talking about as a future HOFer.

From 2013 until he was done, he hit .278/.341/.493 and couldn't stay healthy (which is actually better than I thought, but not even close to where he was before). He still had good on-base skills, but the average and the power really declined after he got popped. The "light switch" nature of it got my attention; I mean, immediately after he got busted his skills declined.
 
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#230,868
#230,868
05_never_again said:
Not exactly. Before the test, Braun was a bonafide 5-tool guy who had an MVP, 2nd place MVP, 3rd place MVP, and 5x Silver Slugger. Hit .313/.374/.568 with a .943 OPS. He was a guy people were talking about as a future HOFer.

From 2013 until he was done, he hit .278/.341/.493 and couldn't stay healthy (which is actually better than I thought, but not even close to where he was before). He still had good on-base skills, but the average and the power really declined after he got popped. The "light switch" nature of it got my attention; I mean, immediately after he got busted his skills declined.
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He was missing 2 tools, but could absolutely mash. Peak years at 27/28, production, HOF path... and then the wrong side of the aging curve after that isn't totally out of bounds, though. Especially when the defense was already... suspect. Tack on some injuries (which certainly could have been responsive to limited juice).

Not even disagreeing with you, I don't think. Could just be conveniently aligned with what looks like a traditional peak and decline.
 
#230,869
#230,869
Really wish I was a federal employee so I can tell Elon how much time I spent debating on putting Michael Harris as a top tier CF for my list
 
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