The Dow tomorrow: Predictions?

#177
#177
I bought the ultra long xlf, uyg, at 4.76. It's now 3.54. i'm more convinced than ever the financials are going to be up big in the next month. either that or the world is ending and we will have a full financial breakdown. one or the other. :)
 
#178
#178
droski said:
I bought the ultra long xlf, uyg, at 4.76. It's now 3.54. i'm more convinced than ever the financials are going to be up big in the next month. either that or the world is ending and we will have a full financial breakdown. one or the other. :)
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Thats what I am thinking

Also worried about tax selling
 
#179
#179
droski said:
I bought the ultra long xlf, uyg, at 4.76. It's now 3.54. i'm more convinced than ever the financials are going to be up big in the next month. either that or the world is ending and we will have a full financial breakdown. one or the other. :)
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droski, you work in the field and my understanding is completelt amatuerish, but explain to me why financials are going to be up between now an d the end fo the year when the expectations are:

horrific holiday numbers for the retailers

more job cuts

GDP contratcing at a clip of 4-6% for the quarter

unemployment rolls up across the board

?????????????????????????

And if the automakers go bankrupt before the end fo the year?
 
#180
#180
lawgator1 said:
droski, you work in the field and my understanding is completelt amatuerish, but explain to me why financials are going to be up between now an d the end fo the year when the expectations are:

horrific holiday numbers for the retailers

more job cuts

GDP contratcing at a clip of 4-6% for the quarter

unemployment rolls up across the board

?????????????????????????

And if the automakers go bankrupt before the end fo the year?
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because they are tremendously undervalued relative to their earnings generating capacity. Pro forma multiples are absurdly low for the entire sector.
 
#181
#181
lawgator1 said:
droski, you work in the field and my understanding is completelt amatuerish, but explain to me why financials are going to be up between now an d the end fo the year when the expectations are:
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the expectations are so negative at this point that unless you assume these companies are going out of business they are absurdly undervalued.
 
#182
#182
BigPapaVol said:
because they are tremendously undervalued relative to their earnings generating capacity. Pro forma multiples are absurdly low for the entire sector.
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droski said:
the expectations are so negative at this point that unless you assume these companies are going out of business they are absurdly undervalued.
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You guys are speaking in objective terms, but the market is not being objectively valued, it would seem.

I mean, if I'm a big investor on the sidelines, while I think some stocks are undervalued, that's not the point. The point is that they are going to go down more, rational or not. Why should I $20 a share for stock I think is worth $30 a share when every indication in the market is that its going to go down to $10 before it starts heading back up?
 
#183
#183
lawgator1 said:
You guys are speaking in objective terms, but the market is not being objectively valued, it would seem.
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seems to me the point is that somewhere in all this mess, objectivity returns and valuations get back to being about ability to produce returns.

Somehow, I'm guessing the doom and gloom news will end around 1.21.09 and we'll see some positive slant from the vast majority of the information providers. That should help. Until then, there's nothing to stem the tide, except hope for rationality to return.
 
#184
#184
because at some point people will stop selling and the bad news wont be every day and at that point the stocks will go up and all those people short are screwed. this will happen eventually, i'm thinking we are reaching that point.
 
#185
#185
droski said:
because at some point people will stop selling and the bad news wont be every day and at that point the stocks will go up and all those people short are screwed. this will happen eventually, i'm thinking we are reaching that point.
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My point is that I do not get any sense that we are remotely close to that point.
 
#186
#186
lawgator1 said:
My point is that I do not get any sense that we are remotely close to that point.
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history has told me when you are scared to death that is when the market bottoms. if the consensus is that financials are going down, that means they aren't (i can't tell you how many clients i have who want to but the ultra short financial index). it's already gotten far worse than anyone imagined. that is the time to buy. i could be wrong of course, but i'd like to think i get paid for something.
 
#188
#188
just hold the 300 gain please. i like obama's choice for treasury secretary. i think that is the first nice thing i've said about obama on this board.
 
#189
#189
droski said:
just hold the 300 gain please. i like obama's choice for treasury secretary. i think that is the first nice thing i've said about obama on this board.
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Really not a bad pick..I think Mr. Geithner will do fine. It would be nice to break 8,000 today, really nice.
 
#193
#193
allvol123 said:
Yea, but don't these wild swings either way make you nervous?
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No..That's what beer is for. :p Yeah a little, but I think the markets are going to be crazy for a little longer while they try to find a bottem (where ever the hell that is). This is a traders market right now you really have to know what your doing to make $$$ in this market.
 
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#195
#195
Going up, and then down.....up and then down.....down and then down.......down and then down......down and then up....oh wait.....there's a sell off right before close......so down she goes again. My portfolio has gone from $100 to $40 in the last 3 months! At this rate I'll be getting a bill from the government to help bail them out.......
 
#196
#196
droski said:
just hold the 300 gain please. i like obama's choice for treasury secretary. i think that is the first nice thing i've said about obama on this board.
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Gargle with Pinesol and/or Janitor In A Drum. That should kill the germs, and remove the bitter taste from your mouth. :good!:

Should you find other nice things about Obama rolling off your tongue. I suggest you visit your physician immediately.
 
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