The economy post-Covid

#1
lawgator1

lawgator1

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#1
This is NOT a thread about Trump or any current politician or election. This is about the long term nature of the economy once the Covid situation is over.

The predictions are dire. Goldman Sachs is forecasting peak unemployment to reach 25 % very soon. I heard on CNBC this morning that some economists are forecasting that about 40 % of the jobs lost due to the virus will not come back, ever. Not to say there will not be jobs or businesses that replace them. But, a lot of people who have lost their jobs are not going to be called back to those particular jobs.

A lot of these are bottom rung jobs. Restaurants, hospitality, basic service jobs. So they can be replaced.

What do you think is the long term nature of what's going to happen with the economy in terms of structure? Maybe less restaurants and hotels, resorts? People will be reluctant to go to them, anyway. Even when we have a vaccine this is going to resonate for awhile. Are we going to have chronic unemployment to deal with for a decade-plus? Like 10 %?
 
#2
#2
lawgator1 said:
This is NOT a thread about Trump or any current politician or election. This is about the long term nature of the economy once the Covid situation is over.

The predictions are dire. Goldman Sachs is forecasting peak unemployment to reach 25 % very soon. I heard on CNBC this morning that some economists are forecasting that about 40 % of the jobs lost due to the virus will not come back, ever. Not to say there will not be jobs or businesses that replace them. But, a lot of people who have lost their jobs are not going to be called back to those particular jobs.

A lot of these are bottom rung jobs. Restaurants, hospitality, basic service jobs. So they can be replaced.

What do you think is the long term nature of what's going to happen with the economy in terms of structure? Maybe less restaurants and hotels, resorts? People will be reluctant to go to them, anyway. Even when we have a vaccine this is going to resonate for awhile. Are we going to have chronic unemployment to deal with for a decade-plus? Like 10 %?
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I think people will go back to "normal" by the end of the year, taking vacations and such.

Some businesses will definitely NOT re open but some new ones will be created too, i think the service industry just hires everyone back anyway.

It will take some time, but the US will recover as always.
 
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#3
#3
lawgator1 said:
This is NOT a thread about Trump or any current politician or election. This is about the long term nature of the economy once the Covid situation is over.

The predictions are dire. Goldman Sachs is forecasting peak unemployment to reach 25 % very soon. I heard on CNBC this morning that some economists are forecasting that about 40 % of the jobs lost due to the virus will not come back, ever. Not to say there will not be jobs or businesses that replace them. But, a lot of people who have lost their jobs are not going to be called back to those particular jobs.

A lot of these are bottom rung jobs. Restaurants, hospitality, basic service jobs. So they can be replaced.

What do you think is the long term nature of what's going to happen with the economy in terms of structure? Maybe less restaurants and hotels, resorts? People will be reluctant to go to them, anyway. Even when we have a vaccine this is going to resonate for awhile. Are we going to have chronic unemployment to deal with for a decade-plus? Like 10 %?
Click to expand...
Yes, which is why we must get the economy going. If we do not we could be looking at a depression in the coming years, what would happen to our healthcare system then?
 
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#4
#4
lawgator1 said:
This is NOT a thread about Trump or any current politician or election. This is about the long term nature of the economy once the Covid situation is over.

The predictions are dire. Goldman Sachs is forecasting peak unemployment to reach 25 % very soon. I heard on CNBC this morning that some economists are forecasting that about 40 % of the jobs lost due to the virus will not come back, ever. Not to say there will not be jobs or businesses that replace them. But, a lot of people who have lost their jobs are not going to be called back to those particular jobs.

A lot of these are bottom rung jobs. Restaurants, hospitality, basic service jobs. So they can be replaced.

What do you think is the long term nature of what's going to happen with the economy in terms of structure? Maybe less restaurants and hotels, resorts? People will be reluctant to go to them, anyway. Even when we have a vaccine this is going to resonate for awhile. Are we going to have chronic unemployment to deal with for a decade-plus? Like 10 %?
Click to expand...
Also the REAL million dollar question is if a vaccine is created, will it be mandatory?
 
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#5
#5
lawgator1 said:
This is NOT a thread about Trump or any current politician or election. This is about the long term nature of the economy once the Covid situation is over.

The predictions are dire. Goldman Sachs is forecasting peak unemployment to reach 25 % very soon. I heard on CNBC this morning that some economists are forecasting that about 40 % of the jobs lost due to the virus will not come back, ever. Not to say there will not be jobs or businesses that replace them. But, a lot of people who have lost their jobs are not going to be called back to those particular jobs.

A lot of these are bottom rung jobs. Restaurants, hospitality, basic service jobs. So they can be replaced.

What do you think is the long term nature of what's going to happen with the economy in terms of structure? Maybe less restaurants and hotels, resorts? People will be reluctant to go to them, anyway. Even when we have a vaccine this is going to resonate for awhile. Are we going to have chronic unemployment to deal with for a decade-plus? Like 10 %?
Click to expand...
Wait what?! You libs got what you wanted the country got shut down! Now you don’t like the fallout? Suck it Trebeck
 
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#7
#7
lawgator1 said:
This is NOT a thread about Trump or any current politician or election. This is about the long term nature of the economy once the Covid situation is over.

The predictions are dire. Goldman Sachs is forecasting peak unemployment to reach 25 % very soon. I heard on CNBC this morning that some economists are forecasting that about 40 % of the jobs lost due to the virus will not come back, ever. Not to say there will not be jobs or businesses that replace them. But, a lot of people who have lost their jobs are not going to be called back to those particular jobs.

A lot of these are bottom rung jobs. Restaurants, hospitality, basic service jobs. So they can be replaced.

What do you think is the long term nature of what's going to happen with the economy in terms of structure? Maybe less restaurants and hotels, resorts? People will be reluctant to go to them, anyway. Even when we have a vaccine this is going to resonate for awhile. Are we going to have chronic unemployment to deal with for a decade-plus? Like 10 %?
Click to expand...

If by some miracle you are finally right about something then Dr Fauci is a dead man walking. The testing that he constantly touts as the end all was not available at the time of the shutdown and he proposed a solution to a problem in the absence of "scientific" evidence.
 
#10
#10
utvolpj said:
Open up, get govt out of the way and let the people do what they can. The exact opposite of what's going on now
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Sounds about right. People are craving "normalcy." In their work, in their lives. Once that gets achieved, the economy will take care of itself and that will feed into a positive outlook which in turn, will help the economy even more.
 
#14
#14
vols40 said:
If by some miracle you are finally right about something then Dr Fauci is a dead man walking. The testing that he constantly touts as the end all was not available at the time of the shutdown and he proposed a solution to a problem in the absence of "scientific" evidence.
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You blame him for the testing not being ready? That’s not his job.
 
#15
#15
volfanjustin said:
I saw a report last night that over 100,000 small businesses would never open again.
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Early on, when I was driving home from work and passing all of these small restaurants and bars -- not franchised, just stand alone places with regular crowds -- that was my thought. They cannot endure the lost income and have no way to fund ramping up a re-open even when its allowed.

Will someone come in and buy it at a huge discount? Put up the money to pass inspection and buy supplies and pay people up front to be there when it can reopen?
 
#16
#16
It all depends on what the .gov (all levels) does. If it keeps taxes low, doesn't pass new regulations and basically gets the hell out of the way of private enterprise the economy will bounce back quickly. If .gov tries to "regulate and tax" us back to prosperity we are in for a long stretch of pain.
 
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#17
#17
hog88 said:
It all depends on what the .gov (all levels) does. If it keeps taxes low, doesn't pass new regulations and basically gets the hell out of the way of private enterprise the economy will bounce back quickly. If .gov tries to "regulate and tax" us back to prosperity we are in for a long stretch of pain.
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What about all these relief packages? We will have to pay for those, too.
 
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#18
#18
lawgator1 said:
Early on, when I was driving home from work and passing all of these small restaurants and bars -- not franchised, just stand alone places with regular crowds -- that was my thought. They cannot endure the lost income and have no way to fund ramping up a re-open even when its allowed.

Will someone come in and buy it at a huge discount? Put up the money to pass inspection and buy supplies and pay people up front to be there when it can reopen?
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Some percentage, yes. But the vast majority will sit unoccupied further dampening the economy due to lost commercial rental revenue. And those jobs won't be easy to replace as you stated earlier.
 
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#19
#19
lawgator1 said:
Early on, when I was driving home from work and passing all of these small restaurants and bars -- not franchised, just stand alone places with regular crowds -- that was my thought. They cannot endure the lost income and have no way to fund ramping up a re-open even when its allowed.

Will someone come in and buy it at a huge discount? Put up the money to pass inspection and buy supplies and pay people up front to be there when it can reopen?
Click to expand...

There will always be some entrepreneurs out there that will take a swing. Might be fewer of them now that the .gov has demonstrated it destructive power but there will always be some.
 
#21
#21
volfanhill said:
You blame him for the testing not being ready? That’s not his job.
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I blame him for advising the economy be shut down with no evidence to support it. I didn't say it was his fault for the testing. He has stated that decisions should be based on results of testing yet he advised the economy be closed at a time when there was little to no testing. So without "scientific data" he made a plea to shut down the economy. It's hypocritical at the very least. And absolutely not "scientific."
 
#22
#22
I'm not going political here but think you will see vastly different recoveries from state to state.

The difference in opening tomorrow versus 90 days from tomorrow is monstrous. I feel more optimistic just driving around TN the past few weeks and seeing businesses starting to open. I cant imagine receiving a message like Californiains got yesterday.
 
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#24
#24
hog88 said:
It all depends on what the .gov (all levels) does. If it keeps taxes low, doesn't pass new regulations and basically gets the hell out of the way of private enterprise the economy will bounce back quickly. If .gov tries to "regulate and tax" us back to prosperity we are in for a long stretch of pain.
Click to expand...

Exactly the opposite of what Nashville is going to do.
 
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#25
#25
allvol123 said:
I'm not going political here but think you will see vastly different recoveries from state to state.

The difference in opening tomorrow versus 90 days from tomorrow is monstrous. I feel more optimistic just driving around TN the past few weeks and seeing businesses starting to open. I cant imagine receiving a message like Californiains got yesterday.
Click to expand...

I had to go into Nashville this morning, it was eerily quite. Gave myself the normal time to make my meeting and ended up 20 minutes early.
 
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