The economy post-Covid

#51
#51
Purple Tiger said:
How will it bounce back quickly? I think your logic is faulty. When the economy was booming, the government was not keeping taxes low, eliminating regulations or staying the hell out of the way of private enterprise. Those things will have little to nothing to do with an economic revival.

Here's why I think the economy won't come back quickly, There will be thousands of permanent jobs lost and small businesses close. Some of the essential businesses that are open now will close. I think real estate is about to get hit with foreclosed homes and less demand for retail/office space. Credit is likely to get tight again. Car production and sales will drop significantly. I hate to say this, but I think we are on the precipice of a depression. I hope I am wrong about all of this.
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Have you been asleep the last 3 years? Taxes have been lowered and regulation has been reduced (and no new burdens enacted).

Both have everything to do with how quickly we can recover. If .gov places increased burden on private industry be it taxes or regulation it will slow recovery.
 
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#53
#53
hog88 said:
Have you been asleep the last 3 years? Taxes have been lowered and regulation has been reduced (and no new burdens enacted).

Both have everything to do with how quickly we can recover. If .gov places increased burden on private industry be it taxes or regulation it will slow recovery.
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Lower taxes and ballooning deficits. We were in a pretty fragile place before this virus hit
 
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#56
#56
Rasputin_Vol said:
The problem isn't just that those workers finding jobs. It's the number of Mom and Pop small businesses that have been destroyed.
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Exactly, those jobs he mentioned being easily replaced are typically jobs that serve employees of larger employers. Many of those jobs will be gone, and with the money people lost in investments have wiped out capital to start and then float a small business for the first year.
 
#59
#59
Everything will go back to normal. Not sure where the 40% of jobs aren't coming back. I'd like to know what type of jobs those are and why they wouldn't come back..
 
#61
#61
lawgator1 said:
This is NOT a thread about Trump or any current politician or election. This is about the long term nature of the economy once the Covid situation is over.

The predictions are dire. Goldman Sachs is forecasting peak unemployment to reach 25 % very soon. I heard on CNBC this morning that some economists are forecasting that about 40 % of the jobs lost due to the virus will not come back, ever. Not to say there will not be jobs or businesses that replace them. But, a lot of people who have lost their jobs are not going to be called back to those particular jobs.

A lot of these are bottom rung jobs. Restaurants, hospitality, basic service jobs. So they can be replaced.

What do you think is the long term nature of what's going to happen with the economy in terms of structure? Maybe less restaurants and hotels, resorts? People will be reluctant to go to them, anyway. Even when we have a vaccine this is going to resonate for awhile. Are we going to have chronic unemployment to deal with for a decade-plus? Like 10 %?
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I don't know how to respond to you if you aren't whining about Trump.
 
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#62
#62
There will be lasting (generational) impact. If you look at the decimation of the rust belt and other former manufacturing hotbeds we'll be seeing similar results. Some towns, areas and most importantly groups of people will have their lives permanently changed. The transition will be slow and painful for many as was the loss of manufacturing. "Learn to code" won't help.

Sorry to be a downer but the longer we stay shut down, the deeper the roots of economic misery will reach.
 
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#63
#63
For the good news part, we will also (should also) see an entrepreneurial explosion (creative destruction). So many of our behaviors/processes/products/services have suffered from institutional inertia. Being forced to question "why do we do it that way" is the door to reimagined solutions. Necessity is the mother of invention as they say. We already have a thread dedicated to telecommuting. There will be structural change across nearly every aspect of our economy and countless opportunity for those who have the 1) vision, 2) capabilities/skills, and 3) access to sufficient capital (the wildcard).
 
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#67
#67
lawgator1 said:
This is NOT a thread about Trump or any current politician or election. This is about the long term nature of the economy once the Covid situation is over.

The predictions are dire. Goldman Sachs is forecasting peak unemployment to reach 25 % very soon. I heard on CNBC this morning that some economists are forecasting that about 40 % of the jobs lost due to the virus will not come back, ever. Not to say there will not be jobs or businesses that replace them. But, a lot of people who have lost their jobs are not going to be called back to those particular jobs.

A lot of these are bottom rung jobs. Restaurants, hospitality, basic service jobs. So they can be replaced.

What do you think is the long term nature of what's going to happen with the economy in terms of structure? Maybe less restaurants and hotels, resorts? People will be reluctant to go to them, anyway. Even when we have a vaccine this is going to resonate for awhile. Are we going to have chronic unemployment to deal with for a decade-plus? Like 10 %?
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You have to be pretty excited about this. The forced reliance by Americans on your fed gov should usher in a more totalitarian authority. This is the best thing to happen for socialism.
 
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#68
#68
allvol123 said:
I'm not going political here but think you will see vastly different recoveries from state to state.

The difference in opening tomorrow versus 90 days from tomorrow is monstrous. I feel more optimistic just driving around TN the past few weeks and seeing businesses starting to open. I cant imagine receiving a message like Californiains got yesterday.
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California would never have them work again if it meant more reliance on the state.
 
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#70
#70
volfanhill said:
I haven’t seen any other high level governmental scientists disagreeing with him. And ultimately he makes zero decisions.
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Blah blah blah blah. It doesn't change the fact that they were wrong and hypocritical to suggest that we should with no scientific data. This cannot be factually disputed. Fauci and the rest of the career people are part of the swamp. He has served his purpose and thank him for that and give him his watch.
 
#71
#71
vols40 said:
Blah blah blah blah. It doesn't change the fact that they were wrong and hypocritical to suggest that we should with no scientific data. This cannot be factually disputed. Fauci and the rest of the career people are part of the swamp. He has served his purpose and thank him for that and give him his watch.
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So you going to hold the POTUS responsible for listening to him, putting him front and center, and keeping in his position? Or are you just going to keep bashing the doctor? At some point the boss has to be held accountable for keeping the guy around right?
 
#72
#72
volfanhill said:
So you going to hold the POTUS responsible for listening to him, putting him front and center, and keeping in his position? Or are you just going to keep bashing the doctor? At some point the boss has to be held accountable for keeping the guy around right?
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How many times will you miss the fact that I said yes ultimately the president is responsible. But you can answer this with your big ole brain....
Your the president of a major corporation and one of your underlings come to you with a doomsday scenario such as this. You take that advice and close up only to find out 2 months later that it was 180° off. Do you resign or fire the MFer who advocated closing it down?
Fauci is in this for Fauci. He honestly believes that he is the smartest guy in the room. And I for one was glad to see Rand Paul call him out for it.
Wrong prediction after wrong prediction after wrong prediction. He is right. What can Dr Fauci claim to have been right about during this pandemic? And the last question is not a rhetorical question. WTF has he been right about?
 
#73
#73
vols40 said:
How many times will you miss the fact that I said yes ultimately the president is responsible. But you can answer this with your big ole brain....
Your the president of a major corporation and one of your underlings come to you with a doomsday scenario such as this. You take that advice and close up only to find out 2 months later that it was 180° off. Do you resign or fire the MFer who advocated closing it down?
Fauci is in this for Fauci. He honestly believes that he is the smartest guy in the room. And I for one was glad to see Rand Paul call him out for it.
Wrong prediction after wrong prediction after wrong prediction. He is right. What can Dr Fauci claim to have been right about during this pandemic? And the last question is not a rhetorical question. WTF has he been right about?
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Would I fire the guy if I felt like you do about him? Sure. So, again, your frustration should be at this point put on the man in charge. Period.
 
#74
#74
allvol123 said:
I'm not going political here but think you will see vastly different recoveries from state to state.

The difference in opening tomorrow versus 90 days from tomorrow is monstrous. I feel more optimistic just driving around TN the past few weeks and seeing businesses starting to open. I cant imagine receiving a message like Californiains got yesterday.
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Even people that live in Cali will come unhinges on their govt before long. JMO.
 
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#75
#75
volfanhill said:
Would I fire the guy if I felt like you do about him? Sure. So, again, your frustration should be at this point put on the man in charge. Period.
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Whatever dude. Continue to follow Fauci and his scare tactics of we need more testing before kids can go to school this fall while science says kids are the least vulnerable. Lol. At the very least the president is accountable to the voters. Who is Dr Fauci accountable to? 🙏. This is me praying that I never have to work for a boss like you
 
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