The Everything Fantasy Football Thread

[NashVol11]

I'm saying that you force the ball to a guy only so much before you give up on him. 4/12 is rough. Yesterday, Rodgers went to Jones, miraculously, 5 times on 3rd or 4th down. 4/4 on 3rd down with a TD. The 4th down was incomplete, but was on a play where he drew the Vikes offsides. 3 of Adams' 4 targets were on 1st down. The other was on 2nd down.

And I'm saying that creating narratives based on ridiculously small sample sizes like this one is a bad idea. Especially when those narratives are things that should automatically raise red flags when you hear them, like "Rodgers likes/trusts this guy more" or "Rodgers saw the stats and decided to throw to this guy" or "Manziel doesn't like to throw to tight ends" or "Flacco is afraid of the Bengals" or "Mariota is better on the road than at home."

Those things are dumb. It's about talent and opportunity. That's been my point this entire time.

 

[NashVol11]

For example, Lance Moore has more TDs than Calvin Johnson. I'm sure there are games this season where on the first drive of the game, he had more targets than Calvin did. Does that mean it was a concerted effort by Stafford or the coaching staff to make Moore a priority? Does it mean Stafford trusts Moore over Calvin? Of course not. Inventing reasons why things happen will hurt you, because you'll almost always be wrong.

I forgot one. "He's playing his old team, so he'll be extra motivated this week." Add it to the list.

 

[crusse10]

And I'm saying that creating narratives based on ridiculously small sample sizes like this one is a bad idea. Especially when those narratives are things that should automatically raise red flags when you hear them, like "Rodgers likes/trusts this guy more" or "Rodgers saw the stats and decided to throw to this guy" or "Manziel doesn't like to throw to tight ends" or "Flacco is afraid of the Bengals" or "Mariota is better on the road than at home."

Those things are dumb. It's about talent and opportunity. That's been my point this entire time.

On all of the plays that one would consider "trust" plays, Jones is better. On 3rd down, in the redzone, to the endzone, on free plays thanks to defensive penalties...all of them.

And if you want to continue to blame the injury for yesterday, go for it. But he only played 5 fewer snaps than Cobb and Jones. He just looked at Jones a lot more.

 

[crusse10]

For example, Lance Moore has more TDs than Calvin Johnson. I'm sure there are games this season where on the first drive of the game, he had more targets than Calvin did. Does that mean it was a concerted effort by Stafford or the coaching staff to make Moore a priority? Does it mean Stafford trusts Moore over Calvin? Of course not. Inventing reasons why things happen will hurt you, because you'll almost always be wrong.

I forgot one. "He's playing his old team, so he'll be extra motivated this week." Add it to the list.

First of all, the more comparable discussion would be Moore vs. Golden Tate. And if they saw that trying to get the ball into Moore's hands on a more frequent basis occurred in all of the teams' wins, and in the teams' losses, you completely neglected him...then yeah. They should look at getting him involved more.

 

[NashVol11]

This is a different conversation. Now you're talking about who in your opinion they SHOULD trust instead of who they DO trust. If we're measuring trust to date, then like I said, the fact that Rodgers throws to Adams much more often on 3rd down speaks to trust much more than the fact that Jones catches a higher percentage or whatever.

You think Rodgers should trust Jones more because those specific results have been better, and then take this one week as proof that your theory is correct and he's switched his sights to Jones. In reality, it's very unlikely that Rodgers or any QB thinks like that. I've tried to explain that inventing narratives based entirely on one game is a pointless exercise, but I guess we can wait a week or two. Then when Adams has more targets than Jones, again, you'll have to make up another narrative to explain that away. If Jones catches over 50% of his targets in the previous game, that'll make it really tough.

 

[NashVol11]

The "fat Eddie Lacy" narrative sure is holding up. He looked like the Eddie Lacy of old this week. Maybe it's because he lost 20 pounds in the last week. Or maybe that was a stupid narrative, and he's always been heavy. One of those.

 

[NashVol11]

same. up until this weekend, i was 8th place at 3-7 in my money league, with 2nd most points scored (had most pts scored against me by 270 points lol).

thankfully, my cinderella story stays alive for another week as I inched out a 1.5 pt victory. have to win out these last two games.

Damn, that's rough. I think I'm actually second in points against, but I've lost by 5 points or fewer 4 or 5 times now. Week 5 was especially brutal. But I can squeak in by winning out too; here's to keeping hope alive lol

 

[crusse10]

This is a different conversation. Now you're talking about who in your opinion they SHOULD trust instead of who they DO trust. If we're measuring trust to date, then like I said, the fact that Rodgers throws to Adams much more often on 3rd down speaks to trust much more than the fact that Jones catches a higher percentage or whatever.

You think Rodgers should trust Jones more because those specific results have been better, and then take this one week as proof that your theory is correct and he's switched his sights to Jones. In reality, it's very unlikely that Rodgers or any QB thinks like that. I've tried to explain that inventing narratives based entirely on one game is a pointless exercise, but I guess we can wait a week or two. Then when Adams has more targets than Jones, again, you'll have to make up another narrative to explain that away. If Jones catches over 50% of his targets in the previous game, that'll make it really tough.

I said at the beginning of the season that Davante would have more targets. I think I said almost 2-1. But I also said that Jones would get far more TDs, to the point it would more than even out. Pretty sure you disagreed with that. I'm not wrong. Even when healthy, Davante isn't a redzone threat. James Jones is. However you want to swallow that pill, go for it.

 

[crusse10]

The "fat Eddie Lacy" narrative sure is holding up. He looked like the Eddie Lacy of old this week. Maybe it's because he lost 20 pounds in the last week. Or maybe that was a stupid narrative, and he's always been heavy. One of those.

You keep bringing up things that have nothing to do with this. This isn't about Eddie Lacy or Lance Moore or Calvin Johnson or Johnny Manziel. It's about Jones and Adams. One of the two of them has been just shy of elite in fantasy numbers. The other, when he did play, hasn't maximized his potential. Hell, he hasn't even lived up to his billing. The most elite he's appeared was 182 yards over 2 games, where he had 32 targets. When you've got Aaron Rodgers throwing the ball and you can't turn 32 targets into at least 200 yards, you might just not be that great.

 

[NashVol11]

I said at the beginning of the season that Davante would have more targets. I think I said almost 2-1. But I also said that Jones would get far more TDs, to the point it would more than even out. Pretty sure you disagreed with that. I'm not wrong. Even when healthy, Davante isn't a redzone threat. James Jones is. However you want to swallow that pill, go for it.

My main point was that I'd rather have Adams for fantasy because I don't want to rely on a guy having 2 TDs on 2 catches. I thought the TDs would even out between the two of them, and I still do. According to PFF, based on the location of his targets, Jones should have 3.5 TDs right now and he has 6. Those things tend to regress toward the mean, and yesterday notwithstanding, that's exactly what's been happening over the past month for Jones.

You were trying to predict things (opportunity and TDs) that are incredibly fluky, after like 2 games. It's not a good idea. But if you want to be in my league next year and draft Lance Moore or Barnidge or Jones early because they're TD guys, please be my guest.

 

[NashVol11]

You keep bringing up things that have nothing to do with this. This isn't about Eddie Lacy or Lance Moore or Calvin Johnson or Johnny Manziel. It's about Jones and Adams. One of the two of them has been just shy of elite in fantasy numbers. The other, when he did play, hasn't maximized his potential. Hell, he hasn't even lived up to his billing. The most elite he's appeared was 182 yards over 2 games, where he had 32 targets. When you've got Aaron Rodgers throwing the ball and you can't turn 32 targets into at least 200 yards, you might just not be that great.

I'm not trying to use Lacy to say anything about James Jones, other than to point out that it's yet another example of stupid narratives being completely unfounded.

Neither is elite as a player, and you have to know that. Yards per target doesn't really tell you anything about how good a player is. It just says they catch short passes, which Edelman and Welker have made a career of doing. Bigger YPC/YPT numbers are more conducive to the big plays that win fantasy games, but no one complains about Edelman this year because you can score on short passes as well.

 

[crusse10]

as a Packers fan, I can safely say that in a PPR league, Adams will normally do better than Jones. In a regular league, Jones will most likely even things out with Adams because Adams won't see the endzone plays that Jones will see. Rodgers is so comfortable with Jones and Adams will have to work up to that respect. Jones and Rodgers were together for years, whereas this is only the start of Adams' second season. So if you're getting a point every time, then you're probably looking at 7ish catches and 60-80 yards every week from Adams. But I wouldn't expect much endzone action.

Wasn't wrong there. 1 game so far for Davante over 7 catches. 1 game over 80 yards. 1 redzone target.

In the redzone, I expect Adams to be 4th or 5th on Rodgers' radar. Last year Adams had 6 catches on plays that originated inside the redzone. He only had 1 more redzone catch than Andrew Quarless. He had 3 TDs. He's just not the guy Rodgers focuses on in the redzone.

James Jones, on the other hand...In his breakout season in 2012, he had 14 catches on redzone plays, 11 of those were TDs.

Jones will be a target inside the redzone. Adams will be a checkdown.

Hey, if you want to think that, more power to you. Like I said, Davante will still be a good play. Davante could go for double the yards and half the TDs at best. That's how I see it playing out. I think Davante gets about 60-80 yards a game, but only gets in the endzone maybe 5 or 6 times. Jones may only get 4 or 5 catches a game, but I expect most of those to be high-pressure plays, like 3rd downs and ones in the redzone. Rodgers trusts Jones, and I'd argue that he trusts Jones more than he trusts Davante.

And the only way I'd agree that Rodgers goes for 40 TD passes is if Jordy Nelson magically reappears. I'd put him at 35, max. More running with Lacy will cut into his numbers.

Wasn't wrong about Rodgers' TD numbers. Was slightly off because of Lacy's struggles.

When QBs are going through progressions, they aren't thinking about jersey numbers. You might force the ball to a Calvin Johnson, but not to James Jones. He's going to throw to the guy that's open, and Adams is a big target and a better player. If you're designing plays to go to a particular receiver, it's not James Jones.

I'd be absolutely shocked if Adams only scored 5 TDs. I'd happily put money on him scoring more than that. But I guess we'll see at the end of the season

Guess I should have taken that bet. Damn.

 

[NashVol11]

And what's lost in all of the self-congratulating is that if you were, say, a Patriots fan, based on last season you would proclaim that aside from Gronk, Edelman was the guy between the 20s and LaFell was the TD guy. And you'd be dead wrong, because TDs are fluky and you're essentially guessing until you see consistent usage for that particular season.

Keep rolling with narratives, though. The trust one isn't working out so well, but the determination is admirable.

 

[crusse10]

And what's lost in all of the self-congratulating is that if you were, say, a Patriots fan, based on last season you would proclaim that aside from Gronk, Edelman was the guy between the 20s and LaFell was the TD guy. And you'd be dead wrong, because TDs are fluky and you're essentially guessing.

Keep rolling with narratives, though. The trust one isn't working out so well, but the determination is admirable.

I don't feel like apologizing for accurately predicting what would happen with my team. I really don't care how you want to believe things turned out as they did. But acting like there's no way that familiarity with the QB plays into the continual targets in high-stress and/or high-reward situations for Jones seems like you're just grasping at straws. The only thing that didn't play out like I expected was that James Jones got a few of the Jordy Nelson bombs and also that he cleared 100 multiple times, and almost got there another time. I didn't expect he'd clear 90 at all. So pleasant surprise there. But Davante, when he's been on the field, has been either a colossal disappointment or a decent WR3 that people tried to force into being a WR2 just because of the situation.

 

[crusse10]

and I doubt I'd predict that a guy on the PUP list was going to be the TD guy

 

[NashVol11]

I don't feel like apologizing for accurately predicting what would happen with my team. I really don't care how you want to believe things turned out as they did. But acting like there's no way that familiarity with the QB plays into the continual targets in high-stress and/or high-reward situations for Jones seems like you're just grasping at straws. The only thing that didn't play out like I expected was that James Jones got a few of the Jordy Nelson bombs and also that he cleared 100 multiple times, and almost got there another time. I didn't expect he'd clear 90 at all. So pleasant surprise there. But Davante, when he's been on the field, has been either a colossal disappointment or a decent WR3 that people tried to force into being a WR2 just because of the situation.

It's another dumb narrative. How much familiarity with the QB did Odell Beckham or Jarvis Landry or Martavis Bryant or Kelvin Benjamin or Mike Evans need to start scoring TDs? How much familiarity did DeAndre Hopkins need with Hoyer or TJ Yates? There are approximately 1000 more examples

 

[NashVol11]

Torrey Smith and Flacco were very familiar with each other going into 2014. But Steve Smith walks in and immediately becomes their #1 receiver. What gives?

 

[crusse10]

It's another dumb narrative. How much familiarity with the QB did Odell Beckham or Jarvis Landry or Martavis Bryant or Kelvin Benjamin or Mike Evans need to start scoring TDs? How much familiarity did DeAndre Hopkins need with Hoyer or TJ Yates? There are approximately 1000 more examples

Only one of them was competing for TD targets with a guy who had that rapport: Bryant. The rest is just throwing out names of top WRs. The only one who is close to what you're implying is ODB, who started doing well in games that Cruz was also doing well in, then Cruz got hurt.

 

[crusse10]

Torrey Smith and Flacco were very familiar with each other going into 2014. But Steve Smith walks in and immediately becomes their #1 receiver. What gives?

Torrey Smith still got his, to the tune of 11 TDs

 

[TrueOrange]

I have Lafell in 2 leagues, i just think with all the injuries that he's good to have. I don't think you would play Lafell or Funchess over the people you have though would you?

It's less that they start and more having the depth I guess. I'm kind of concerned about LaFell just being too rusty / his production being too low to put it together during most of the fantasy season, as well as I'm starting to have some concern with Hurns's laundry list of injuries perhaps starting to catch up with him.

(And personally it helps to have at least some ability to rotate at that last WR spot, not to mention potentially someone who could be played one of mine have an injury.)

Still kicking myself over staying pat on the likes of Stefon Diggs.

 

[SmokeyFTW]

I was so close... 15th place

 

[SmokeyFTW]

1st place paid $80,000. I honestly think I win or place top 3 if Gronk didn't disappear last night

 

[SmokeyFTW]

I did win another $20

 

[NashVol11]

Only one of them was competing for TD targets with a guy who had that rapport: Bryant. The rest is just throwing out names of top WRs. The only one who is close to what you're implying is ODB, who started doing well in games that Cruz was also doing well in, then Cruz got hurt.

There's Leonard Hankerson, who has easily outproduced Roddy White despite his "familiarity" with Matt Ryan. There's Stefon Diggs making Charles Johnson disappear (and his rapport with Bridgewater was such a huge selling point!). There's Pierre Garcon being the most targeted receiver in the NFL with RG3 and Cousins in 2013 and then disappearing as soon as DJax got there. There's Willie freaking Snead jumping ahead of Marques Colston, despite all his chemistry and trust with Brees. There's Cruz himself, who quickly jumped ahead of Nicks and Manningham despite all that chemistry. The list goes on and on and on.

It's a fun theory, but as soon as you test it it falls apart. But I will be eagerly awaiting the Hakeem Nicks NFL Takeover that's about to happen in the next few weeks, since past chemistry is such an important thing.

 

[BadJerry20]

1st place paid $80,000. I honestly think I win or place top 3 if Gronk didn't disappear last night

Damn 9 pts away.