The Foreign Trade Thread

#976
#976
According to Peter Zeihan, this is why an agreement with China failed to materialize last week:

Bilateral trade talks with China more or less collapsed last week. I can’t say I’m shocked. At the talks’ onset the Americans laid out a series of non-negotiable demands including an end to cybertheft, an end to forced tech transfer, an end to the hyper-subsidization of Chinese industry, an end to functional prohibitions on American firms’ access to the Chinese market, granting the Americans the right to impose any investigation at any time on any issue without any consultation complete with the ability to impose any desired punishment on any Chinese economic sector.
 
#978
#978
Thunder Good-Oil said:
According to Peter Zeihan, this is why an agreement with China failed to materialize last week:
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Yeah, China's not going to be making giant structural concessions. As I see it, incremental gains and increased market access are about as much as we're going to get.
NorthDallas40 said:
I work in defense/aerospace mfg
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"Defense" is quite broad.

I get having protected supply chains for satellites, advanced weaponry and the like. It seems less warranted for Humvees and the like. I'm not sure how broad the coverage is, is why I asked.
 
#979
#979
Velo Vol said:
"Defense" is quite broad.

I get having protected supply chains for satellites, advanced weaponry and the like. It seems less warranted for Humvees and the like. I'm not sure how broad the coverage is, is why I asked.
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It’s governed by ITAR/EAR regulations. Thank your commerce dept. Yes it’s quite broad. Yes humvees are impacted also. Everything that goes on them. And... dual use technology items are affected also. Like commercial telecom/internet equipment of certain types for example.
 
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#980
#980
Thunder Good-Oil said:
According to Peter Zeihan, this is why an agreement with China failed to materialize last week:

Bilateral trade talks with China more or less collapsed last week. I can’t say I’m shocked. At the talks’ onset the Americans laid out a series of non-negotiable demands including an end to cybertheft, an end to forced tech transfer, an end to the hyper-subsidization of Chinese industry, an end to functional prohibitions on American firms’ access to the Chinese market, granting the Americans the right to impose any investigation at any time on any issue without any consultation complete with the ability to impose any desired punishment on any Chinese economic sector.
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Was it the last demand that broke the camels back?
 
#981
#981
hog88 said:
Was it the last demand that broke the camels back?
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Dispute resolution was the cherry that came with replacing NAFTA with the USMCA. The MSM only acknowledges the marginally better tariff equalization. No agreement is worth a darn if a party cheats and the body making rulings on the complaints is slanted heavily against the US.

Trump's agenda seems to be to crush China and their threat to overtake us economically. Right now we have the means to kick their asses. They've been able to get away with too much for too long by playing their best hand... waiting on 2,4, and 6 year election cycles to change our leadership while there's little change in their political system. We've had too many leaders focused on re-election rather than making our country stronger.
 
#985
#985
Velo Vol said:
Define "kick their asses" in terms of commercial trade.
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We could throttle their economy to the point that they'd struggle to feed their people. No need to push it that far, but we also don't need to continue allowing them to cheat and steal their way to having the world's most powerful economy and military.
 
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#986
#986
China has their future carved in stone... 5-10-20 yr plans. So, any concessions to the trade imbalance will be very minor on their part. Trump has his work cut out for him, if it can be done, he is the man to see it through.
 
#989
#989
Thunder Good-Oil said:
We could throttle their economy to the point that they'd struggle to feed their people.
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I'm going to say no.

By "throttle" you stop exports to the US? It would be damaging (to both sides) but I don't think it would cause their economy to collapse. It's got more options than it did a few years ago.
 
#990
#990
Velo Vol said:
I'm going to say no.

By "throttle" you stop exports to the US? It would be damaging (to both sides) but I don't think it would cause their economy to collapse. It's got more options than it did a few years ago.
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We also protect their shipping lanes bringing in raw materials and sending out their finished goods. They also depend on our banking system to settle the transactions. Not to mention that they dump 4x as much on our consumers as they import from us. Trump needs to keep applying the pressure since he holds the upper hand right now.

There aren't good people running that country and Trump is on point to disrupt their economic growth. The last several administrations have enabled it.
 
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#992
#992
Thunder Good-Oil said:
We also protect their shipping lanes bringing in raw materials and sending out their finished goods. They also depend on our banking system to settle the transactions. Not to mention that they dump 4x as much on our consumers as they import from us. Trump needs to keep applying the pressure since he holds the upper hand right now.

There aren't good people running that country and Trump is on point to disrupt their economic growth. The last several administrations have enabled it.
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Where is the U.S. protecting shipping lanes that it doesn't itself benefit from?

Seems the Chinese using the U.S. banking system is beneficial to the U.S.

I see a lot more interdependency between the two countries than you're portraying. An abrupt severing would be bad for both sides.
 
#993
#993
Velo Vol said:
Where is the U.S. protecting shipping lanes that it doesn't itself benefit from?

Seems the Chinese using the U.S. banking system is beneficial to the U.S.

I see a lot more interdependency between the two countries than you're portraying. An abrupt severing would be bad for both sides.
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I never said abrupt. We need to keep the pressure on China. We have a lot of leverage and previous administrations were too weak to use it.

We can easily get by as isolationists. It's about time that our leadership plays hardball and has a spine in matters relating to accessing the US consumer market and paying for protection. He!!, Germany has the nerve to use us to protect them from Russia... while building a massive pipeline into Russia. We've had nothing but pansy assed administrations for 30 years now. It's time to stand firm. It's be great to stand united, but the radical left won't put our country first.
 
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#994
#994
Merkel just said last week that the US was an enemy to europe. Direct quote. Screw her and Germany if they agree. Guess the sting of that azz whippin has worn off now that all the ww2 vets are gone.
 
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#995
#995
Thunder Good-Oil said:
We've had nothing but pansy assed administrations for 30 years now. It's time to stand firm. It's be great to stand united, but the radical left won't put our country first.
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Why not include Reagan as a "pansy" in your protectionist rant?

Ronald Reagan on Free Trade vs. Protectionism

We should beware of the demagogues who are ready to declare a trade war against our friends—weakening our economy, our national security, and the entire free world—all while cynically waving the American flag. The expansion of the international economy is not a foreign invasion; it is an American triumph, one we worked hard to achieve, and something central to our vision of a peaceful and prosperous world of freedom.
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#996
#996
I don't know how widespread the corn thing is but it's something that it can spread so fast in one night.

ASF may have as much of an impact on the soybean market as the trade brouhaha is causing.

 
#998
#998
marcusluvsvols said:
Merkel just said last week that the US was an enemy to europe. Direct quote. Screw her and Germany if they agree. Guess the sting of that azz whippin has worn off now that all the ww2 vets are gone.
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She said they can't count on us allies, not that we're enemies.
 
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