The Great 2022 and Beyond Recession Thread

#351
#351
VolStrom said:
They never miss you until you're gone. Thankfully, I've been gone long enough, they don't love me anymore.
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Oh the group I retired from won’t call. They won’t give me the opportunity and satisfaction of saying no to them. This is the group I transferred out of two years ago and had essentially spent my whole career in I’ve always maintained great terms with them.

But still as I said to them no interest currently we can talk later in the year. Honestly I think there will be some “adjustments” coming due to the current business environment so I want the dust to settle on that first also.
 
#353
#353
Velo Vol said:
Believe the sky is falling if you want. The data is much more ambiguous.
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Not really. We’ve already got one quarter towards recession in the bank and will be announcing the second one in two weeks based on ATL Fed GDPNow. And bank stocks led off earnings season last week with some abysmal numbers.
 
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#355
#355
NorthDallas40 said:
Not really. We’ve already got one quarter towards recession in the bank and will be announcing the second one in two weeks based on ATL Fed GDPNow. And bank stocks led off earnings season last week with some abysmal numbers.
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Who believes they can even accurately determine to a tenth decimal, or much less be truthful.
 
#357
#357
DC_Vol said:
The data is ambiguous because most of it is not being reported in a standardized way. Such as in constant dollars or units sold.
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Does it even account for inflation? Which in itself is not accurate.
 
#359
#359
Velo Vol said:
Believe the sky is falling if you want. The data is much more ambiguous.
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What data is ambiguous? Employment data is inconclusive at best, the housing market is pulling back, interest rates are significantly higher, and economic growth is anemic if not flat. When you combine that with soaring prices it isn’t hard to figure out what is happening; wages are not and cannot keep up with rising prices which means whatever savings were created by the stimulus checks will soon be gone if not already. Gas prices have moderated because demand has decreased, not because inflation is cooling.
 
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#360
#360
Orangeburst said:
Plant a Bradford pear in my name in some dumbass radical neighborhood. Saving the planet and *****ing on them at the same time
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Bradford Pear trees are the only thing that kept my chainsaw in running condition for many years. Every spring and summer there were dozens that split in half in my yard, my neighbors yard and the street that required it to be put in action. God bless those self splitting trees.
 
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#361
#361
Orangeburst said:
Does it even account for inflation?
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That’s what I’m getting at. We really don’t know from just the social media chart. Always be wary of the pretty chart on social media along with it’s commentary.

If YoY inflation is 9% and sales are up 1%, all things being equal unit sales are down materially.

In the case of car sales, I’d like to see it reported in last year dollars along with an average selling price. Are people trading down in price point? Up in price point? Are units up or down?

Those are the second order questions if one is really looking for meaning behind the data.
 
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#362
#362
Velo Vol said:
Believe the sky is falling if you want. The data is much more ambiguous.
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I don't believe the sky is falling. This isn't 08. This is the beginning of a decade, IMO, of low to zero growth. The only good thing, if you can call anything good, is I don't anticipate massive layoffs outside of tech.
 
#363
#363
DC_Vol said:
That’s what I’m getting at. We really don’t know from just the social media chart. Always be wary of the pretty chart on social media along with it’s commentary.

If YoY inflation is 9% and sales are up 1%, all things being equal unit sales are down materially.

In the case of car sales, I’d like to see it reported in last year dollars along with an average selling price. Are people trading down in price point? Up in price point? Are units up or down?

Those are the second order questions if one is really looking for meaning behind the data.
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100%. I am up 3%. Increased prices around 9%. Foot traffic down significantly in each location. This is how these things always start.
 
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#364
#364
DC_Vol said:
That’s what I’m getting at. We really don’t know from just the social media chart. Always be wary of the pretty chart on social media along with it’s commentary.

If YoY inflation is 9% and sales are up 1%, all things being equal unit sales are down materially.

In the case of car sales, I’d like to see it reported in last year dollars along with an average selling price. Are people trading down in price point? Up in price point? Are units up or down?

Those are the second order questions if one is really looking for meaning behind the data.
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It is garbage in garbage out. Every metric. Just trends like poles. And that even assumes competency and truthfulness.
 
#365
#365
volfanhill said:
I don't believe the sky is falling. This isn't 08. This is the beginning of a decade, IMO, of low to zero growth. The only good thing, if you can call anything good, is I don't anticipate massive layoffs outside of tech.
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I disagree. You conquer inflation with a recession and reduced spending.
There are two inflationary causes..supply and demand, and monetary. We are under both
 
#366
#366
Orangeburst said:
Who believes they can even accurately determine to a tenth decimal, or much less be truthful.
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Well since GDPNow is at -1.5% and we are within two weeks of calling it their historical accuracy says we’re gonna call a second quarter of GDP shrinking. We don’t need tenth percent accuracy to do that
 
#368
#368
NorthDallas40 said:
Well since GDPNow is at -1.5% and we are within two weeks of calling it their historical accuracy says we’re gonna call a second quarter of GDP shrinking. We don’t need tenth percent accuracy to do that
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Just saying who the heck think the gov can report to any tenth, or even integer value.
 
#369
#369
Orangeburst said:
I disagree. You conquer inflation with a recession and reduced spending.
There are two inflationary causes..supply and demand, and monetary. We are under both
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They won’t fix inflation. They will just increase acceptable level to 4-5% and pretend it is no longer an issue while hoping wages keep up. There is zero will to successfully tackle inflation which is reduced spending which will never occur
 
#370
#370
landscapingvol said:
They won’t fix inflation. They will just increase acceptable level to 4-5% and pretend it is no longer an issue while hoping wages keep up. There is zero will to successfully tackle inflation which is reduced spending which will never occur
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That has been my premise for a year now...Keep the sugar going and try to play catch up or take the pain for our nation's long term benefit.

HELLO..hyperinfation
 
#373
#373
allvol123 said:
People are making more. Prices have increased faster than those increased wages. Not sure what is ambiguous.
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Every single indicator is pointing toward a pretty tough recession. Commodity prices don’t fall as quickly as they have without a catalyst. For those industrials that report, order books are down significantly in the second half. Interest rates are on the rise. Wages well behind the inflation.

You don’t know until you know, but it would be ludicrous to bet any other way right now.
 
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#374
#374
allvol123 said:
People are making more. Prices have increased faster than those increased wages. Not sure what is ambiguous.
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It’s ambiguous because he supports said policies that got us here in the first place but the reality is much different than most want to admit. My wife and I make pretty good money together, nothing great around 125k, and it is getting much more difficult to save money each month while food costs have more than doubled.
 
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#375
#375
Orangeburst said:
That has been my premise for a year now...Keep the sugar going and try to play catch up or take the pain for our nation's long term benefit.

HELLO..hyperinfation
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I don’t really see another path out of this. The US finances have been a house of cards for decades.

The only thing we had going for us is our rather amazing productivity expansion that offset the printing presses. In fact, over that period of time had we operated with a balanced budget we should have seen deflation.

The COVID over reaction dampened productivity while putting record amounts of new money into circulation. That is what finally collapsed the house of cards.

Now we’re going to all be paying for the decades of overspending in Washington. It’s going to be brutal. If there isn’t a change in mindset in DC, we’re done for decades.
 
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