Federal:
1) The only Republican to win the popular vote for President in 20 years was George W. Bush, who got only 3 million more votes than Kerry.
2) Biden beat Trump in the popular vote by 7 million.
3) In 2022, everyone expected a major Republican victory as to the House, and they barely got the majority.
4) All 435 seats are up for vote in 2024, and the trend for the GOP is not good.
State
1) Republicans control 56 chambers of state legislatures, the Dems 41.
2) Republicans have 26 governorships, the Dems 24.
We see a lot of rancor at the state levels right now from Republicans resisting federal direction. If the trends continue and the federal government becomes increasingly Dem, while the state become increasingly GOP, how long until a state like Arkansas, or a governor like DeSantis, declares independence from the federal government? And other GOP states would rapidly follow suit.
I don't think it will be real soon, maybe not in the next 10 years for example. But 25 years from now? If the trends continue?