The Morning After - Sober Reflections Week 5

[UTFranklinVol]

It's not just one player

I get it. I said it at the beginning of the year when people were pissed at how low we were ranked. Last year our whole team was a QB and 2 WRs and we lost them all. I knew what was coming.

 

[Woodlawn VOL]

Milton looked a ton more comfortable with Mays behind center. I think he will get better as the O-Line gells with Mays at center. Our D is still improving. I don’t think A@M,Bama or Kentucky have any better quarterback situation than we do. Quarterback ranking blah blah. One game at a time and keep improving. GBO

 

[DrTNT]

QBR does a fine job in this case. Milton was #10 in week 5 and is #10 season to date. Its very consistent. I cant think of a single time this year that I thought Milton impacted a game in a clutch moment and made me think if it werent for him we would have lost. Please bring a serious argument with examples instead of juat crapping on a stat that doesnt fit your narrative.

Gonna have to disagree with you regarding QBR doing a fine job, it’s a ridiculously stupid mathematical equation that rewards “late game heroics” more than “taking their will early”.

As for narratives, mine is simple. I’m a UT fan, if a player is playing with heart and has a team first mentality above individual accolades, I support them. With a 4 & 1 record I don’t have a problem with any player in this team. Are there things to continue to improve? Yes. Will they? Yes.

 

[DrTNT]

I think UT can beat them if the game is at night. I worry though that it will be the CBS game and UT has a horrible track record of embarrassing themselves on CBS when they could win.

I agree, it will be the 330 game that week… but Pitt, Florida, Bama & Georgia were 330 last year as I recall… 3 & 1 in those 2 & 0 at home…

 

[DrTNT]

Yep, and anyone that is mildly informed knew we we would take a step back offensively this year.

The losses of Darnell Wright and Jerome Carvin were huge!

 

[rocktopper16]

All of y’all legit crying over the screens really need to take a step back and understand how and why we are doing it. Joe has tremendous arm talent and has a good zip on the ball. Normally you wouldn’t get but a yard or two from those screens but Joe gets the ball out there quick enough that every one has the chance to be housed.

 

[Mccage]

If Milton is subpar then if I were Nico I would be looking for a less critical fan base to serve. Even with Peyton here people were calling for Brandon Stewart to start.

The difference in this game and the Florida game was both lines of scrimmage. And that is the way it will be with all of our remaining conference games this year. But we will not face another conference team with a trash offensive line like Carolina’s. And our offensive line will struggle mightily with aTm’s and Bama’s defensive lines. But so far the best team in the East right now is Kentucky and we play them on the road. That could be three straight losses.

If I were you I would be looking for another team

 

[barrylee]

Vols offense only scored 27 points against one of the worst defenses in the country. Vols still have big issues on offense.

Thought they scored 34.. I only saw defense score the 1 td..

 

[VOLINVONORE]

When we play a team that can stop our backs, we're in trouble. We really struggle passing the ball, and I'm not talking about the quick hitters to the sideline. I hold my breath when he looks over the middle.

I was really impressed with A&M's defense last Saturday. mThey are big , strong, and fast. They are playing with confidence and speed. I am glad we have an off week to prepare for them. If it is a night game, I like our chances.

 

[luthervol]

My assessment of Milton was based on numbers, QBR specifically. He was, in fact the 10th best QB in the SEC in week 5. And if youre saying that was his "best game of the year" well then being #10 in the SEC as his high point would very much make him sub par.

So you think Milton is a better QB than Rattler?

 

[onevol74]

If I were you I would be looking for another team

Truth hurts, doesn’t it.

 

[SpaceCoastVol]

I don't believe Joe is subpar. He is at least above average. You got spoiled on Manning and Hooker. Joe is a Vol for Life and is getting better every week. His one Intercept was nothing but a good punt.

Haters gonna hate

 

[SpaceCoastVol]

So you think Milton is a better QB than Rattler?

He was on Saturday.

 

[UTFranklinVol]

Gonna have to disagree with you regarding QBR doing a fine job, it’s a ridiculously stupid mathematical equation that rewards “late game heroics” more than “taking their will early”.

As for narratives, mine is simple. I’m a UT fan, if a player is playing with heart and has a team first mentality above individual accolades, I support them. With a 4 & 1 record I don’t have a problem with any player in this team. Are there things to continue to improve? Yes. Will they? Yes.

At its heart QBR gives points for the things that matter. Passes completed vs incomplete, total passing yards, touchdowns, interceptions, fumbles etc. It also gives weight to pressure situations however the basics still matter the most.

So if you dont like QBR then look at the raw stats.

Milton is in the bottom half of the SEC in passing yards, conpletion percent, he's 13th in average yards per pass even though he has a cannon for an arm. Hes 7th in TDs, 6th in interceptions, hes 4th in incomplete passes and 10 other QBs have been sacked more than he has, so hes not really getting pressured like the others. His passer rating is 10 out of 14 in the SEC.

Keep the context in mind as well. These are Milton's numbers through the EASY part of the schedule. UT hasn't played any good teams at all yet. The toughest opponent has been dog sh!t unranked Florida that just got destroyed by Kentucky. The other teams are all even bigger pushovers.

So what is the metric that you like to use to gauge QBs?

 

[UTFranklinVol]

So you think Milton is a better QB than Rattler?

USC has a massive OL problem this year.
Rattler went toe to toe with Hooker last year and ripped us appart. His OL isnt able to protect him this year. He got sacked 12 times all of last year and is on pace to get sacked 53 times this year. Thats laughable considering his 12 sacks in 2022 led the SEC. His OL is putrid. In spite of that Rattlers completion % is still 10 points higher than Milton and he already has 300 more passing yards even though he's been saked 22 times compared to Milton's 5. It would be at the very least interesting to see Milton's stats if he had been saked 22 times through 5 games.

It would also be very interesting to see Rattler as the UT QB to see how much better his stats would be with our offense.

Does UT have OL problems, yep. But no where near what Rattler is dealing with.

 

[luthervol]

He was on Saturday.

100% agree.

 

[perico]

It was a good analysis. Overall team did really good and it was an exciting win. The OP acknowledged the all the good. But also pointed out the concerns. You can’t beat the best teams on the schedule without excellent quarterback play. And we’ve all seen enough out of Milton now to kind of know what the ceiling is with him. Last night was a textbook Milton performance.

Crompton called, and wants his 2nd half of 2009 back.

 

[Vol4life2]

This all day long. Show me a game where our RBs dont perform well and I will show you a game we lose. Milton can't win on his abilities.

No QB can. You despise Joe as our starting QB. Got it. Just keep beating that dead horse every day, every week.

 

[SpaceCoastVol]

At its heart QBR gives points for the things that matter. Passes completed vs incomplete, total passing yards, touchdowns, interceptions, fumbles etc. It also gives weight to pressure situations however the basics still matter the most.

So if you dont like QBR then look at the raw stats.

Milton is in the bottom half of the SEC in passing yards, conpletion percent, he's 13th in average yards per pass even though he has a cannon for an arm. Hes 7th in TDs, 6th in interceptions, hes 4th in incomplete passes and 10 other QBs have been sacked more than he has, so hes not really getting pressured like the others. His passer rating is 10 out of 14 in the SEC.

Keep the context in mind as well. These are Milton's numbers through the EASY part of the schedule. UT hasn't played any good teams at all yet. The toughest opponent has been dog sh!t unranked Florida that just got destroyed by Kentucky. The other teams are all even bigger pushovers.

So what is the metric that you like to use to gauge QBs?

Wins.

 

[sjt18]

My first thought: Tennessee and Dark Mode looked good under the lights of Neyland as the Vols crush the head of the snake.

1.Tennessee looks way more stable with Cooper Mays back at cener
2. Three running backs are better than one. With a touchdown each the three headed monster was running loose.
3. The Squirrel White catch is a top play of the week. Using your foot as a third hand with a defenders arm in your face falling backwards, no problem.
4. The defense FINALLY scores sime points. I think they said it was the first defensive score since 2021! Six sacks on Rattler and there was no way they were putting 60 points on UT this year.

On second thought...

1. The Bru McCoy injury was devastating. He's obviously done for the year but has a year of eligibility left. Hopefully he recovers and we see him play next year.
2. We found a way to win with a sub par QB. Strong defense, a dominant running game and a clown catch by Squirrel White coupled with short easy throws. In spite of scoring 41 points Joe Milton still ranked #10 of 14 in QBR inthe SEC this week. The saving grace is Rattler was #12.
3. We need a strong finish to the first half of the season against TAMU because it looks like the second half could be brutal. The UK game all the sudden looks like a tough win which could mean multiple losses in the back half of the year.

Are you serious? Take your negativity to your psychiatrist.

No. Milton still hasn't played to the level most of us would like to see. But he did some good things and moved the O. The run game was dominant. Bru's injury was a very tough break but presents and opportunity for the 3 young guys.

Rattler by the assessment of many was the best player in the SEC ytd. Many assumed that it wouldn't matter that the team around him wasn't "great". Two weeks ago he made USCe competitive for a half vs UGA's D. He threw a TD with 2 picks and averaged 6.1 ypa. Against the Vols, he only avg'd 4.8 ypa with no TDs and a pick. UGA sacked him 3 times vs 6 for UT. If not for the long run, UT actually defended USCe's run game better than UGA did... and they hadn't discovered Anderson until the last two games. He had only 2 carries vs UGA. Their other two RBs aren't SEC quality.


The reason I post this is that while there are concerns remaining... there is a TON to be pleased with. The Vols are a much better team right now than they were in the Swamp. If this trajectory of improvement continues, the game vs UGA in Neyland will matter. UT could lose to A&M, UGA, and/or Bama. But there are no teams left on the schedule that UT can't beat. Right now, the Vol D vs the UGA O doesn't look like a bad thing for the Vols.

 

[sjt18]

This all day long. Show me a game where our RBs dont perform well and I will show you a game we lose. Milton can't win on his abilities.

Sure he can. He plays too tight. On his first pick, he missed Squirrel for a wide open 1st down. You have to believe he's making those reads correctly in practice. He isn't JG level... but he seems to struggle to play loose and instinctive.

Can that switch flip? Yes. We will just have to hope that it does.

 

[Volfan76]

We may be a running team now, but we are going to need Milton to win some games. SC stacking the box vs uga, bama, and a&m stacking the box are different ball games. It did seem like Milton put more air under his longer throws last night and I think that's why he had a little better night throwing, but I think it may have also been why he had some picks. We are going to have to accept some interceptions and let him put some touch on his throws in order to be successful.

 

[Volnanza]

Why branch off on some tangent? The statement said we control our own destiny and we dont! If we win all our games and are 11-1, and UF does not lose another SEC game.....guess what. WE DO NOT GO TO ATLANTA.....that is not controlling our own destiny.

Florida losing again this year is a certainty. We win and we are in control. Watch and see. We had room enough to lose one conference game this year and still be champs. The only exception is Georgia. If our only loss is to them then we are out. Nobody in their right mind has Florida winning out. That's just not going to happen. Even the gators know this.

 

[DrTNT]

At its heart QBR gives points for the things that matter. Passes completed vs incomplete, total passing yards, touchdowns, interceptions, fumbles etc. It also gives weight to pressure situations however the basics still matter the most.

So if you dont like QBR then look at the raw stats.

Milton is in the bottom half of the SEC in passing yards, conpletion percent, he's 13th in average yards per pass even though he has a cannon for an arm. Hes 7th in TDs, 6th in interceptions, hes 4th in incomplete passes and 10 other QBs have been sacked more than he has, so hes not really getting pressured like the others. His passer rating is 10 out of 14 in the SEC.

Keep the context in mind as well. These are Milton's numbers through the EASY part of the schedule. UT hasn't played any good teams at all yet. The toughest opponent has been dog sh!t unranked Florida that just got destroyed by Kentucky. The other teams are all even bigger pushovers.

So what is the metric that you like to use to gauge QBs?

W’s & L’s

 

[UTFranklinVol]

W’s & L’s

So if Milton throws for 300 yards and 3 touchdows against Bama, UK and Georgia but we lose all three you will think Milton is trash? Your thinking makes zero sense.