The Numbers Thread

[Jnunn]

This thread was doomed from jump street.

 

[eazyTD]

My own thread. I knew I would make the big time someday. I have so many people I need to thank.

God, for giving me the ability to fight through the headaches from starring at the laptop for hrs.

Bruin, for showing me that it does not have to make sense as long as you keep saying it.

Freak, for not banning me before I got my message delivered.

Ron Swanson, for keeping the positive UT vibes flowing.

POA, for keeping me supplied with up to date info from so many good sources. Between the numbers and the sources, I could have never made it to where I am today.

I know I am forgetting someone....

Butchna, for being one that seems to be here to have a bit of fun. Laughs are good for the soul.

MockingVol, for very early in the process jumping on the Quinten Dormady express. "ChooChoo"!

OGbabyaviVol, for keeping it real. Blunt and to the point is what we need at times.

Volatil, for bringing the inside JJ and Jr info. I'd think another 173 times of "He's going to play QB" should have most of the board buying in.

volunteerlane, for keeping the board informed of the going's on around the GA recruit scene. I don't care what they say, your alright with me "Byron".

matts42012, for dropping the thread bombs when our guessing at things starts to get crazy.

sigchig, for being a fellow "keeping it real" poster.

VolsDoc81TX, for holding out hope that a hotel in Norman OK was possible.

smokeyhuntgators, knowing the right moment to drop a dancing Yoda gif into a thread.

patrick, for making the Dormady thread legendary in the matter of about 8HRS.

LotteryPick, for taking Freaks advice and making this thread possible. I'll never forget you.

Notorious B.E.N, for going all utknate and trying to use this thread to score phone numbers.

utknate, for showing us all that Michael Sam is not alone in the fight. Don't let Jakob's restraining order against you get you down.

I know I am missing many who deserve mention here....

Torrance Gibson, for finally showing up.

Lastly I would like to acknowledge those who added me to their ignore lists. Being in select company can make a person feel special at times. It's a sense of brotherhood. I would not have traded it for anything.

-holds up the award made of aluminum cans, rubber bands, and a UT car flag-

"I will always remember this day".

"The number is still 16".

 

[eazyTD]

I will admit that I'm almost hurt that you didn't include me in your speech Leb.

 

[LebanonVolunteer]

I will admit that I'm almost hurt that you didn't include me in your speech Leb.

It just did not work into the numbers.



Honestly I had to cut it off at some point.lol:

 

[smokeyhuntsgators]

My own thread. I knew I would make the big time someday. I have so many people I need to thank.

God, for giving me the ability to fight through the headaches from starring at the laptop for hrs.

Bruin, for showing me that it does not have to make sense as long as you keep saying it.

Freak, for not banning me before I got my message delivered.

Ron Swanson, for keeping the positive UT vibes flowing.

POA, for keeping me supplied with up to date info from so many good sources. Between the numbers and the sources, I could have never made it to where I am today.

I know I am forgetting someone....

Butchna, for being one that seems to be here to have a bit of fun. Laughs are good for the soul.

MockingVol, for very early in the process jumping on the Quinten Dormady express. "ChooChoo"!

OGbabyaviVol, for keeping it real. Blunt and to the point is what we need at times.

Volatil, for bringing the inside JJ and Jr info. I'd think another 173 times of "He's going to play QB" should have most of the board buying in.

volunteerlane, for keeping the board informed of the going's on around the GA recruit scene. I don't care what they say, your alright with me "Byron".

matts42012, for dropping the thread bombs when our guessing at things starts to get crazy.

sigchig, for being a fellow "keeping it real" poster.

VolsDoc81TX, for holding out hope that a hotel in Norman OK was possible.

smokeyhuntgators, knowing the right moment to drop a dancing Yoda gif into a thread.

patrick, for making the Dormady thread legendary in the matter of about 8HRS.

LotteryPick, for taking Freaks advice and making this thread possible. I'll never forget you.

Notorious B.E.N, for going all utknate and trying to use this thread to score phone numbers.

utknate, for showing us all that Michael Sam is not alone in the fight. Don't let Jakob's restraining order against you get you down.

I know I am missing many who deserve mention here....

Torrance Gibson, for finally showing up.

Lastly I would like to acknowledge those who added me to their ignore lists. Being in select company can make a person feel special at times. It's a sense of brotherhood. I would not have traded it for anything.

-holds up the award made of aluminum cans, rubber bands, and a UT car flag-

"I will always remember this day".

"The number is still 16".

 

[Brillovol]

I'll take a crack at this numbers talk. Seems like Leb is taking this from a different perspective than the rest of us. Soooo...

If you assume the law of averages, then we are talking about a handful of players being gone due to regular attrition. This number is anyone's guess, but I'd expect to see around 5-7 not be part of team 2015. Assuming one or more may not qualify out of the upcoming class, I'm sticking with 22-23 signees.

 

[LebanonVolunteer]

I'll take a crack at this numbers talk. Seems like Leb is taking this from a different perspective than the rest of us. Soooo...

If you assume the law of averages, then we are talking about a handful of players being gone due to regular attrition. This number is anyone's guess, but I'd expect to see around 5-7 not be part of team 2015. Assuming one or more may not qualify out of the upcoming class, I'm sticking with 22-23 signees.

I think around 5-7 was my original guess back when this topic started being discussed. I think at that time the number was around 11-12. Today it sits at 16. Just have to see where it ends up closer to NSD.

 

[sigchig]

My own thread. I knew I would make the big time someday. I have so many people I need to thank.

God, for giving me the ability to fight through the headaches from starring at the laptop for hrs.

Bruin, for showing me that it does not have to make sense as long as you keep saying it.

Freak, for not banning me before I got my message delivered.

Ron Swanson, for keeping the positive UT vibes flowing.

POA, for keeping me supplied with up to date info from so many good sources. Between the numbers and the sources, I could have never made it to where I am today.

I know I am forgetting someone....

Butchna, for being one that seems to be here to have a bit of fun. Laughs are good for the soul.

MockingVol, for very early in the process jumping on the Quinten Dormady express. "ChooChoo"!

OGbabyaviVol, for keeping it real. Blunt and to the point is what we need at times.

Volatil, for bringing the inside JJ and Jr info. I'd think another 173 times of "He's going to play QB" should have most of the board buying in.

volunteerlane, for keeping the board informed of the going's on around the GA recruit scene. I don't care what they say, your alright with me "Byron".

matts42012, for dropping the thread bombs when our guessing at things starts to get crazy.

sigchig, for being a fellow "keeping it real" poster.

VolsDoc81TX, for holding out hope that a hotel in Norman OK was possible.

smokeyhuntgators, knowing the right moment to drop a dancing Yoda gif into a thread.

patrick, for making the Dormady thread legendary in the matter of about 8HRS.

LotteryPick, for taking Freaks advice and making this thread possible. I'll never forget you.

Notorious B.E.N, for going all utknate and trying to use this thread to score phone numbers.

utknate, for showing us all that Michael Sam is not alone in the fight. Don't let Jakob's restraining order against you get you down.

I know I am missing many who deserve mention here....

Torrance Gibson, for finally showing up.

Lastly I would like to acknowledge those who added me to their ignore lists. Being in select company can make a person feel special at times. It's a sense of brotherhood. I would not have traded it for anything.

-holds up the award made of aluminum cans, rubber bands, and a UT car flag-

"I will always remember this day".

"The number is still 16".

Thanks for the mention Leb, always nice to be noticed! Keep it real man, keep it real.

 

[NoogaVFL]

"Unpopular opinion puffin"... opcorn:

 

[Glitch]

Bruin, for showing me that it does not have to make sense as long as you keep saying it.

I laft purty gud at dis wun. lol:

 

[LebanonVolunteer]

Well, It's Austin Clark day and here in the land of the numbers thread it would be predicted that the number of current commitments sticks at 12 following his announcement and the 2015 class (as of today) stays at 16.

:zeitung_lesen:

 

[BigZiti09]

I think around 5-7 was my original guess back when this topic started being discussed. I think at that time the number was around 11-12. Today it sits at 16. Just have to see where it ends up closer to NSD.

Doesn't matter what the number is on national signing day. All that matters is what it is when the signees arrive in the summer of 2015.

 

[LebanonVolunteer]

Doesn't matter what the number is on national signing day. All that matters is what it is when the signees arrive in the summer of 2015.

I get that is technically true.

I've also pointed out while that is the case, the staff did not "over sign" last year when they had a lot of talented kids wanting in late. The coaches only took as many kids as they knew they had spots for as of NSD.

Could they try and "over sign" this year? Possibly. I'm not going to automatically say they will so I can claim the class will be 24-25 or more.

 

[triadvolfan]

I get that is technically true.

I've also pointed out while that is the case, the staff did not "over sign" last year when they had a lot of talented kids wanting in late. The coaches only took as many kids as they knew they had spots for as of NSD.

Could they try and "over sign" this year? Possibly. I'm not going to automatically say they will so I can claim the class will be 24-25 or more.

Congrats on getting your own thread. Doing that without having to start it yourself is impressive.
:hi:

Last year was a different situation. The initial counter / signing limits numbers weren't going to change between NSD and this fall since the 85 man limit wasn't the limiting factor. Oversigning wasn't an option since the players leaving the team weren't going to affect the number of players they could bring in.

This year the 85 man limit is what's restricting the numbers so oversigning with the assumptions some players leave the team is an option. I think CBJ he'd sign 25 which requires 9 players to leave between now and next summer and/or some players to not qualify that he signs. Seems a bit high but not outside the realm of possibility.

 

[WarMachine]

Leb, I think you do a good job of thinking clearly about what is a realistic expectation, etc. I'm happy to be able to come to this thread to discuss the numbers. I will also be happy if this subject doesn't derail every the discussion in every recruit's thread. I don't think we'll be able to completely get away from it there because whether or not we have room in the class is a typical part of the discussion. But at least we don't have to drive it 6 feet into the ground. We can do that here!

:hi:

 

[LebanonVolunteer]

Congrats on getting your own thread. Doing that without having to start it yourself is impressive.
:hi:

Last year was a different situation. The initial counter / signing limits numbers weren't going to change between NSD and this fall since the 85 man limit wasn't the limiting factor. Oversigning wasn't an option since the players leaving the team weren't going to affect the number of players they could bring in.

This year the 85 man limit is what's restricting the numbers so oversigning with the assumptions some players leave the team is an option. I think CBJ he'd sign 25 which requires 9 players to leave between now and next summer and/or some players to not qualify that he signs. Seems a bit high but not outside the realm of possibility.

How could the number of players leaving last year not affect the number they could bring in? What am I missing in that? The number leaving is what dictates how many you can bring in for those now open spots. The staff was able to sign 32 because of back counts and the SRs leaving the team & kids walking away by NSD. The staff signed a kid for every available spot up to the 85 limit on NSD. Had CBJ taken say 34, and over signed by 2 then 2 kids left by AUG 2015, we would have still been fine and at/under the 85 limit, right? The staff did not decide to do that. They chose not to over sign.

What am I missing here?

 

[Crookruss]

How could the number of players leaving last year not affect the number they could bring in? What am I missing in that? The number leaving is what dictates how many you can bring in for those now open spots. The staff was able to sign 32 because of back counts and the SRs leaving the team & kids walking away by NSD. The staff signed a kid for every available spot up to the 85 limit on NSD. Had CBJ taken say 34, and over signed by 2 then 2 kids left by AUG 2015, we would have still been fine and at/under the 85 limit, right? The staff did not decide to do that. They chose not to over sign.

What am I missing here?

You can only sign 25 kids per class. Coaches get around that with EE's that they backcount to the previous class. The 85 number was not a concern last class.

 

[LebanonVolunteer]

You can only sign 25 kids per class. Coaches get around that with EE's that they backcount to the previous class. The 85 number was not a concern last class.

I get the 25 SEC limit number. Last year they took 14 EEs, and 18 more on NSD. Did the 18 they signed on NSD not bring the # to 85 total? I thought I saw an updated roster shortly after NSD showing all the newcomers and the roster was 85 deep.

Last year I thought 7 of the 14 EE's were "back counted" and the remaining 7+18NSD signees, made the 32 total. I also thought the 32 brought the roster to 85.

 

[sigchig]

I posted this in a player thread, but it belongs here. He(Leb) may harp on and on and on about the numbers, but there's a reason. He doesn't live in googleyeyed imaginationland like all the posters that he is constantly tempering expectations for. It's just as annoying to me all the people that ignore reality with the numbers because at the end of the day, facts are facts. I think he's only trying to keep everyone grounded in reality, and that takes an immense amount of time and effort around these parts. Basically, he wouldn't post it a million times if people just get it the first time.

 

[WarMachine]

Chig, I agree with Scotty, Leb does take a realistic point of view, but all of it is speculation. He went on and on about only taking 1 qb, but he had no way of knowing that he'd be wrong, because he had no way of knowing that RF was leaving. We work in the realm of speculation, and the best we can do is good guesses. That's what is probably the most frustrating for most posters here; stating as fact what is opinion, whether you have good reasons or not.

 

[triadvolfan]

I get the 25 SEC limit number. Last year they took 14 EEs, and 18 more on NSD. Did the 18 they signed on NSD not bring the # to 85 total? I thought I saw an updated roster shortly after NSD showing all the newcomers and the roster was 85 deep.

Last year I thought 7 of the 14 EE's were "back counted" and the remaining 7+18NSD signees, made the 32 total. I also thought the 32 brought the roster to 85.

You could be right that the 32 brought the number to 85. I haven't counted but it's probably pretty close. The issue is even if CBJ wanted to sign 35 to replace kids that were going to leave between NSD and this summer he couldn't have because of the initial counter / signing limit. 32 (or maybe 31 depending on who you believe) was the max he could bring in this year.

Next year 25 will be his maximum but that will put him over the 85 man limit. So if he wants to he can sign up to 25 and sort the numbers out between NSD and when the kids arrive. Last year he just signed as many as the rules allowed and the 85 man limit wasn't a big factor. The 85 man limit is square in the cross hairs this year.

 

[sigchig]

Chig, I agree with Scotty, Leb does take a realistic point of view, but all of it is speculation. He went on and on about only taking 1 qb, but he had no way of knowing that he'd be wrong, because he had no way of knowing that RF was leaving. We work in the realm of speculation, and the best we can do is good guesses. That's what is probably the most frustrating for most posters here; stating as fact what is opinion, whether you have good reasons or not.

Yeah I figured you would....you've been harping on it for a few days I've noticed. Everyone is entitled to their opinion. It just seems nowadays that every time Leb has one, people tell him to shut up and he takes it in stride. I was just trying to show a little support because I think he's a good poster and more realistic than a lot of folks on here and I appreciate that. Even I do tire a little of hearing about the numbers, but IMO most of the time it's because he is responding to something unrealistic. That is the part I agree is speculative. But the numbers are not. The numbers go up and down based on attrition/commitments at this point but does not make them less than factual on how many we can sign. They just change as the facts change. No more soap box. Everyone love each other and hug All IMO and no disrespect to anyone meant. GBO!

 

[LebanonVolunteer]

I posted this in a player thread, but it belongs here. He(Leb) may harp on and on and on about the numbers, but there's a reason. He doesn't live in googleyeyed imaginationland like all the posters that he is constantly tempering expectations for. It's just as annoying to me all the people that ignore reality with the numbers because at the end of the day, facts are facts. I think he's only trying to keep everyone grounded in reality, and that takes an immense amount of time and effort around these parts. Basically, he wouldn't post it a million times if people just get it the first time.

Actually your right. That is probably a large portion of my "numbers" posts is pointing out that all these "claimed sure takes" just can't be the case when your signing a smaller class. Yes, it happens in alot of threads because I think it's currently in play with a lot of recruits. I honestly think if Jimmy Hyams reported today CBJ would sign 28 the masses would run with it. Any other time he is clueless, but they would run with that w/out question. It's cool though because as you said tempering expectations is not a bad thing. It's just reality at times and a lot of people just can't buy into the thought process that UT can't sign everyone with 4-5*'s by their name. I said Harrell did not make sense at the time and was told I was very wrong. UT passed on him apparently. Sterling Johnson was all teed up to be a Vol, and I said I think people are about to be surprised AGAIN, and apparently UT passed. The "WTH" to follow was good reading. I felt Clark was not going to happen as Richmond was it on the OL. "You crazy LV". Now being said UT was slow playing him. Recruiting is a lot of guessing. Yes, that means 247, VQ, Scout, ESPN, and even this very board. Educated guesses sometimes play out to be accurate.

Your also right that the #'s are fluid and will change as UT's roster changes. To say that it's not fact is just not accurate at all. Take the 12 scholarship SRs off the roster, add to it the fact the roster currently sits at 81, and the 16 number as of today looks to be a fact.

I note people are now mentioning that "kids can be taken off scholarship" and that is 100% true. But that would be called a change in the roster much the same way as a kid walking away. If Joe Blow is taken off scholarship this afternoon, Yes, then the number becomes 17 unless the kid is a SR and the spot is already counted. As of now, it's 16 and we have 12 commitments.

Let The Debate! opcorn:

 

[LebanonVolunteer]

Chig, I agree with Scotty, Leb does take a realistic point of view, but all of it is speculation. He went on and on about only taking 1 qb, but he had no way of knowing that he'd be wrong, because he had no way of knowing that RF was leaving. We work in the realm of speculation, and the best we can do is good guesses. That's what is probably the most frustrating for most posters here; stating as fact what is opinion, whether you have good reasons or not.

Maybe they always planned to take 2. I would point out though that they did not add a 2nd QB till after Riley Ferguson had decided to leave. Once Riley left, the offer quickly went out to Quinten and he was a commitment.

 

[WarMachine]

Chig, Leb, I'm all for a reasonable conversation. That's why the bashing and name-calling in the football forum turns me off so much, and I think the incessant call to not forget the current number of scholarships available is contributing to the furor in the RF (making it too much like the FF). I get exactly what you are saying, Leb, regarding the number of scholarships being 16. Do you think CBJ would take more commitments than 16 before he frees up more scholarships? If Kahlil, Settle, Jones, Richmond, DeBerry, and Van Jefferson all decided to commit next week, would Butch turn any away?

The current numbers are facts. Any conversation that supposes who would be a take and who would not be a take, while implementing excellent educated guesses, would be pure speculation unless Butch Jones himself or one of his staff members gives us information. Any talk of who will join the 2015 class is speculation.