Howdy, as many probably have assumed I’ve avoided this place while it dies down a bit, for my own sanity I just can’t deal with the idiots and drive by’s, if I’m going to continue to post and be an active member on this board avoiding this place after a loss seems wise lol. A few thoughts…
-big picture obviously losing that Kentucky game hurts, gotta protect home court in this league and given they were down 2 starters it’s a game you really wanna win, now you gotta find a a way to make up for it with an unexpected road win.
-things don’t get easier so can’t hang our heads, have a winnable stretch of games upcoming but do the wheels come off with a loss to Florida at home? Win that one and things look much better, lose that one and things start to look pretty bleak, feels like a huge game.
-the offense and defense both weren’t very good Tuesday evening, yes we shot horrible from 3, but we are 50-5 the last 3 years when scoring 73+ points, if we’re going to be a defense first team then 73 needs to be enough to win you games, we allowed way too many 3 point looks to a team that is a great 3pt shooting team, they made 1 more 3 on more than 20 less attempts, that’s crazy, but leads me to my next point. Comparatively speaking we are 19-19 when we score less than 73 over the last 3 years.
-I said it early this season and then waffled when guys were showing an ability to score efficiently from 2, but I’m afraid my original take was the accurate one…this team is going to be big time dependent on the 3 ball. Teams aren’t going to allow ZZ to beat them off the bounce and have an open layup or easy lob for a dunk, they’re not going to give up backcuts or flex cuts for easy looks, they’re going to make us prove we can beat them from 3. We don’t have a low post scorer to dump it down to on a consistent basis and no guard that can really slash and get to the rim consistently either, teams are going to continue to back off and shoot 3’s, the team has got to find their confidence across the board. We’re 48-6 over the last 3 years when we shoot 33%+ from 3, when we don’t we are 21-18, pretty clear our success is often tied to making 3 point shots.
-I like Mashack and appreciate him, but if he can’t find consistent offense or a perimeter shot he’s handicapping us. Yes he’s a good defender, but metrics suggest we’re about 3ppp better with him on the court defensively, and about 15ppp offensively when he’s off the court, so yes we’re better defensively, but the lack of offense brings everyone else down around him and thus makes him being out there inefficient for us on the whole. He can change that, but he’s got to start scoring, playing the 3 and not being a threat along with Okpara out there allows teams to absolutely smother Chaz and ZZ off the PnR, while Gainey is struggling to shoot recently when he’s on the court our offensive numbers are much better because opponents respect his game, not writing the final chapter on Mashack, but it’s something to monitor and watch, he’s gotta bring more offensively to where teams respect him on that end, we know what he can do defensively.
-we still sit as a 2 seed on almost every projection currently, so everything is still wide open, they’re projected 3-4 SEC teams on the top 2 seed lines, so not like you have to win the SEC to attain that. The goal should be lock down a Top 4 finish which gets you the double bye and probably will also come along with a 2-3 seed at worse in the NCAAT, that’s all still very much on the table and hopefully looking more realistic starting with a win tomorrow.