The Official “Regular Posters of the Basketball Forum” Thread

[bleedingTNorange]

Simply put, I don’t really have any faith that this offense can string together 4 competent enough offensive performances this year to win in March. I’m not sure what through a 25-game sample size has given so many faith that our offense can do it. I hear about thus mythical “extra gear” around this time every year, but how often does a team simply flip a switch and the light bulb come on when it hasn’t all year?

I would need to spend time researching it, but I would reckon that not often does a team outside the Torvik top 50 in offense and around 40 in KenPom make the Final Four.

Wes Rucker asked a variation of this question last night on Twitter and I thought @cncchris33 summarized my thoughts well, which is the reason a team like Alabama who is the exact inverse of Tennessee is more trusted is because it’s a lot easier to out score an opponent than to out defense them. We’re 12th in the SEC in AdjO on KenPom if you filter it. Shooting variance will result in us probably having another few good shooting performances before the year ends but it will probably also result in a few more compete stinkers in big games.

I would like to believe that this offense can turn a corner like you believe, but if we cannot abuse the worst defense in the SEC at least once in 2 games it’s just a complete morale killer in thinking we can just out defense teams for 4 straight games in March.

I get that, but neither did last years team. I would have a hard time calling another E8 some failure, but maybe you disagree. Yes I want a F4, I really would like a championship, but I’m also not going to scoff at yet another S16 or E8 from Barnes either.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

Unless Barnes has something up his sleeve for the offseason with the Portal and NIL, this team is going to take a huge step back next season and probably for the next few seasons, so go ahead and prepare. The fact that he came into the season without a full scholly roster, lost another one to Baylor midseason, and thought that would be okay should speak volumes. For a team with this much overall success in the last 10+ years, we should have had the full scholly allotment with top tier players--- that should have been a given.

Funny, people said the exact same thing last year, and the year before that, and the year before that lol

 

[RyanWalkerPGH]

2023-2024:
24-7 regular season
7 losses average score 78.6-71.4
Bartorvik end of regular season:
Overall: .9458 ranked 6th
Offense: 116.3 ranked 29th
Defense: 90.7 ranked 3rd

2024-2025:
20-5 regular season so far
5 losses average score 71-61.2
Bartorvik currently:
Overall: .9654 ranked 6th
Offense: 115.7 ranked 53rd
Defense: 88.4 ranked 1st



So in reality we have a team that is likely to finish with an almost identical record, as last years, the overall metrics say we are better, slightly worse offensively but better defensively. We’ve lost 5 games currently and 7 last year regular season, 3 of our losses if I’m counting correctly were to unranked teams, including a stinker at home to a bad South Carolina team 63-59. We have 1 loss currently to an unranked team and that was at Vanderbilt, who iirc was actually ranked at the time of that game, not positive though.

So the analytics say we’re better, our losses are better, our resume is better, our losses were in similar fashion, we’re likely to finish with the same or better record…so why is there so much doom & gloom about this team, some folks even comparing it unfavorably to last years team, but yet there was so much excitement for last years team?

Is it not reality based, is it simply emotional outbursts because of losses to a rival? Genuinely curious, because to this point the data we have to go off of suggests that if anything this team is actually better than last years team as things currently stand. And in my own opinion it feels like this years team probably has another potential gear to them, if you can get Gainey & Lanier now going to go with Zeigler & Milicic’s improved play recently, you can be working with something more balanced than what we had last year.

Honestly, I think the answer is very simple. This team doesn't have Dalton Knecht. There was also hope that when the stakes were the highest, he'd come through.

This team really doesn't have that. However, I agree the statistics are rather similar to this point.

 

[VolsSportsFan]

I get that, but neither did last years team. I would have a hard time calling another E8 some failure, but maybe you disagree. Yes I want a F4, I really would like a championship, but I’m also not going to scoff at yet another S16 or E8 from Barnes either.

The only way I’d remotely call an EE a failure is if we made like 8 in a row with some number 1 seeds in there and we still couldn’t break through to the FF. Even then it would be a conditional failure.

 

[berryvol]

This is an absurd statement. Nothing any team does on February 11th “solidifies” them as a #1 seed. There are five more weeks until Selection Sunday.

You’re not following enough bracketologists then. Alabama and Auburn have a solid lead on the rest of the 1 seeds right now, precisely because they’ve consistently won games like the one we just lost. Sorry you don’t understand that wins and losses have consequences.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

Honestly, I think the answer is very simple. This team doesn't have Dalton Knecht. There was also hope that when the stakes were the highest, he'd come through.

This team really doesn't have that. However, I agree the statistics are rather similar to this point.

And I get that, but I feel as though that could also be taken as a positive…if Knecht didn’t carry us and drop 40+ we were hosed, this team CAN be more balanced, if they can all get going. As I’ve said the recent play of Zeigler & Milicic is nice, if Gainey and Lanier can refind their form to go with that I think we can get to cooking.

Probably an unpopular opinion but I’m about to the point of going the Creighton approach, essentially 6 guys, I’m moving Gainey into the starting spot and loading those 5 with confidence and some extended freedom. They will play all the minutes they can handle, and then Mashack & Phillips will give those guys breathers, but that group imo gives us our highest ceiling.

 

[vol9799]

Knocking shooters into the 3rd row isn’t playing dirty? It will result in a flagrant foul at best but most likely an ejection.

TN doesn’t have the fouls to burn to go all Rambis/Laimbeer.

The phrase was in quotes because it's a figure of speech that I erroneously assumed everyone would understand as such. Players commit hard fouls all the time without them being flagrant.

And unfortunately the team must disagree about having fouls to burn. Why else would they continue to foul 3pt shooters without bothering to affect the shot?

 

[CornbreadVol]

I really wish we had Igor for another year, he seems to be coming into his own

 

[VolGee4]

Unless Barnes has something up his sleeve for the offseason with the Portal and NIL, this team is going to take a huge step back next season and probably for the next few seasons, so go ahead and prepare. The fact that he came into the season without a full scholly roster, lost another one to Baylor midseason, and thought that would be okay should speak volumes. For a team with this much overall success in the last 10+ years, we should have had the full scholly allotment with top tier players--- that should have been a given.

Lol...of course, you chime in. Rick Barnes will have a competitive roster next year if he returns. History has proven that. You aren't going to have 13 top tier players on your roster. No team does, and you know that. But our usual negatives are in full force.

 

[MoCo_Vol]

I get that, but neither did last years team. I would have a hard time calling another E8 some failure, but maybe you disagree. Yes I want a F4, I really would like a championship, but I’m also not going to scoff at yet another S16 or E8 from Barnes either.

Yep.

For me 25 wins and a Sweet Sixteen is a great season. Barnes has made that almost the expectation even...Of course I want us to win more and go further than that.

 

[Stoked]

You’re not following enough bracketologists then. Alabama and Auburn have a solid lead on the rest of the 1 seeds right now, precisely because they’ve consistently won games like the one we just lost. Sorry you don’t understand that wins and losses have consequences.

Dude Bama's start of the SEC schedule was super soft. It's why they now have to play...

#1 Auburn x 2
@ #21 Mizzou
#15 UK
@ #5 Vols
#3 Florida

Lets see how they do here because I'm going tbh... I see them going 3-4 at best.

 

[TheMookieMonster]

I get that, but neither did last years team. I would have a hard time calling another E8 some failure, but maybe you disagree. Yes I want a F4, I really would like a championship, but I’m also not going to scoff at yet another S16 or E8 from Barnes either.

To answer your question, we’re tracking towards a 2-seed, I don’t think a 1-seed is realistic if we’re being honest with ourselves. So, success is not losing to a lower ranked seed. Elite 8 would be a success for me this year. Sweet 16 for a team that is 5th in KenPom (and separated from 6th by a wide margin) would be a disappointment.

If we get bounced in the Round of 32 or Sweet 16 because our offense yet again cannot score when it matters, that to me would be a disappointing season, especially when you consider we lost to Kentucky twice and never really even were in the hunt for the SEC title.

 

[berryvol]

Dude Bama's start of the SEC schedule was super soft. It's why they now have to play...

#1 Auburn x 2
@ #21 Mizzou
#15 UK
@ #5 Vols
#3 Florida

Lets see how they do here because I'm going tbh... I see them going 3-4 at best.

That’s all well and good, but they are 15-3 in Q1-2 games, while we are 10-5. They have a superior resume to us and they are solidly ahead of us in the current seeding. They’d have to play really poorly down the stretch to get bounced off the 1 line at this juncture.

 

[berryvol]

Not sure if this makes the loss more palatable or worse. Beat UK in basically every area of the game except outside shooting and still lost by 10+. Yuck.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

To answer your question, we’re tracking towards a 2-seed, I don’t think a 1-seed is realistic if we’re being honest with ourselves. So, success is not losing to a lower ranked seed. Elite 8 would be a success for me this year. Sweet 16 for a team that is 5th in KenPom (and separated from 6th by a wide margin) would be a disappointment.

If we get bounced in the Round of 32 or Sweet 16 because our offense yet again cannot score when it matters, that to me would be a disappointing season, especially when you consider we lost to Kentucky twice and never really even were in the hunt for the SEC title.

So what happens if we drop in KP, you lower your expectations, or what is/isn’t a successful season? I’m guessing not. A 3 beating a 2 a lot of times isn’t an upset, many times that’s essentially a pick ‘em’ or even the 3 being favored. Tennessee was 12th in preseason polls, that’s prime 3 seed territory, so does Barnes get credit for apparently raising the expectations surrounding the team by coaching them to a higher ranking, or is that more so used against him to say, well we were ranked #1 at one point so that’s what the bar now is?

 

[MoCo_Vol]

We're one of the worst teams in the SEC at taking and hitting 2 point shots per game.

14th in 2 PT makes
13th in 2 PT attempts
13th in 2 PT %

Because of this we also are bottom of league in FT makes (15th) and FT attempts (16th)

Kentucky's defense isn't great, but they also aren't as bad a some claim. The odd thing is the things we do badly are the things they do well on defense...so it really puts us in a situation where we HAVE to make shots from deep to beat them.

9th in 2 PT makes given up
3rd in 2 PT attempts given up
15th in 2 PT % (usually teams can drive on them to get shots at rim, which we don't do)

13th in FT makes given up
15th in FT attempts given up

They don't foul a ton, but they often foul shooters...partly because they are trying to limit attempts at the rim.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

The phrase was in quotes because it's a figure of speech that I erroneously assumed everyone would understand as such. Players commit hard fouls all the time without them being flagrant.

And unfortunately the team must disagree about having fouls to burn. Why else would they continue to foul 3pt shooters without bothering to affect the shot?

CRB’s strategy has always been to avoid fouling. So you think it’s a good idea to have players lose their focus of avoiding fouls by knocking the crap out of an opponent when they calculate on the fly that they’re going to commit a foul and redirect the mind set to foul hard?

BTW, opposing coaches almost always comment that TN plays a physical brand of basketball.

 

[cncchris33]

We're one of the worst teams in the SEC at taking and hitting 2 point shots per game.

14th in 2 PT makes
13th in 2 PT attempts
13th in 2 PT %

Because of this we also are bottom of league in FT makes (15th) and FT attempts (16th)

Kentucky's defense isn't great, but they also aren't as bad a some claim. The odd thing is the things we do badly are the things they do well on defense...so it really puts us in a situation where we HAVE to make shots from deep to beat them.

9th in 2 PT makes given up
3rd in 2 PT attempts given up
15th in 2 PT % (usually teams can drive on them to get shots at rim, which we don't do)

13th in FT makes given up
15th in FT attempts given up

They don't foul a ton, but they often foul shooters...partly because they are trying to limit attempts at the rim.

Kentucky's problem is that they have some good individual on-ball defenders (Butler and Oweh, in particular), but the system they run isn't conducive to a good team defense. It's why you saw Butler eat up ZZ 1v1 on the opening possession and him take Gainey's lunch money on a drive, and Oweh send Lanier packing on a layup...all good individual efforts. But within the team defense concept (switching, closeouts, PnR lob help, etc), they struggle. We dribbled around too much far too often and allowed them to use their individual talent instead of keeping the ball moving and forcing them to switch, cover, and closeout. It's easier for them because we have so few ball-handlers in general, and then we clog the floor with non-offensive threats like Mashack, Boswell, Dubar, Phillips, and Okpara. If at any point there are 2 of those 5 on the floor, then the opponent knows they only have to realistically defend 3 guys, at most. There's a reason we make them look like Houston, defensively when other good teams exploit them, and the issue is the same as it has been for years; lack of ball-handlers, lack of scorers.

 

[berryvol]

CRB’s strategy has always been to avoid fouling. So you think it’s a good idea to have players lose their focus of avoiding fouls by knocking the crap out of an opponent when they calculate on the fly that they’re going to commit a foul and redirect the mind set to foul hard?

BTW, opposing coaches almost always comment that TN plays a physical brand of basketball.

I’m not advocating for what OP was suggesting, but I see where he’s coming from. While this year’s team is certainly elite on the defensive end, they don’t seem to have the same brute, unforgiving physicality on that end that Barnes teams usually have. I think that may just be the lack of a physical, banging forward (Uros, Tobe, etc) that we’ve seen in year’s past. The 2021-2023 iterations of UT had this, as well as just the general gameplan on dragging you into the mud and trying to beat the sh*t out of you. Even the 2018-19 teams, while not playing great defense, wanted to bang around and play a physical style - even the guards. We don’t seem to be of that same ilk this season, to me at least.

 

[TheMookieMonster]

So what happens if we drop in KP, you lower your expectations, or what is/isn’t a successful season? I’m guessing not. A 3 beating a 2 a lot of times isn’t an upset, many times that’s essentially a pick ‘em’ or even the 3 being favored. Tennessee was 12th in preseason polls, that’s prime 3 seed territory, so does Barnes get credit for apparently raising the expectations surrounding the team by coaching them to a higher ranking, or is that more so used against him to say, well we were ranked #1 at one point so that’s what the bar now is?

I’m not entirely sure the point in discussing this with you, because it’s fairly apparent that nothing I say is going to be an acceptable response, which is why I haven’t been as present lately. I have given Barnes a lot of credit, I almost always preface any slight criticism I raise with some type of praise, because I know if I don’t then the legion of the sunshine pumpers will be on me like white on rice for daring to step out of line and holding a more lukewarm opinion about this particular team.

My expectations are simply my expectations. Considering the season we’ve had in a vacuum, if we are a 2-seed I would consider this season a success if we hold serve based on seed line expectations. An early exit would affect my opinion of the season. I don’t find that unrealistic or unfair. Success is also relative because for me beating rivals, conference championships, and other factors are also important to me in determining overall success not just March. We aren’t winning the league this year and so far we’re 2-4 against what some would consider our historic basketball rivals (Florida, Vandy, and Kentucky).

I am not here to run off Barnes or ask him to step down. So don’t mistake my frustrations with our inept offense to be a commentary on needing Barnes to leave. I simply would like to see more of a focus on getting the offense fixed even if it means less defense. I’m just not a believer anymore that in this era of college basketball an elite defense is enough to win in March.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

I’m not entirely sure the point in discussing this with you, because it’s fairly apparent that nothing I say is going to be an acceptable response, which is why I haven’t been as present lately. I have given Barnes a lot of credit, I almost always preface any slight criticism I raise with some type of praise, because I know if I don’t then the legion of the sunshine pumpers will be on me like white on rice for daring to step out of line and holding a more lukewarm opinion about this particular team.

My expectations are simply my expectations. Considering the season we’ve had in a vacuum, if we are a 2-seed I would consider this season a success if we hold serve based on seed like expectations. An early exit would affect my opinion of the season. I don’t find that unrealistic or unfair. Success is also relative because for me beating rivals, conference championships, and other factors are also important to me in determining overall success not just March. We aren’t winning the league this year and so far we’re 2-4 against what some what consider our historic basketball rivals (Florida, Vandy, and Kentucky).

I am not here to run off Barnes or ask him to step down. So don’t mistake my frustrations with our inept offense to be a commentary on needing Barnes to leave. I simply would like to see more of a focus on getting the offense fixed even if it means less defense. I’m just not a believer anymore than in this era of college basketball an elite defense is enough to win in March.

All very fair, I was just asking about the expectation because it’s probably raised from preseason, so my point was is Barnes better off not being as good of a coach in the regular season and thus lowered expectations because we don’t reach Top 5 status? This season, as well as his tenure here, very much has a victim of your own success feel to it.

And I’m with you on the bolde…to me it feels kind of like a a last step deal for Barnes. I mentioned weeks ago the Mashack issues and what it was causing, the offense has to get better, it’s glaringly obvious. I don’t think it can happen with Mashack getting 25-30 minutes, it’s also even worse when new data suggests that our defense is the same with/without Mashack on the court, if he’s not raising our level of defense some crazy amount then what are we really doing playing him?

 

[TheMookieMonster]

All very fair, I was just asking about the expectation because it’s probably raised from preseason, so my point was is Barnes better off not being as good of a coach in the regular season and thus lowered expectations because we don’t reach Top 5 status? This season, as well as his tenure here, very much has a victim of your own success feel to it.

And I’m with you on the bolde…to me it feels kind of like a a last step deal for Barnes. I mentioned weeks ago the Mashack issues and what it was causing, the offense has to get better, it’s glaringly obvious. I don’t think it can happen with Mashack getting 25-30 minutes, it’s also even worse when new data suggests that our defense is the same with/without Mashack on the court, if he’s not raising our level of defense some crazy amount then what are we really doing playing him?

Maybe he is a victim of his own success, but I am less worried about the number in front of our name from the AP poll than I am the consistent flaws in this program that have shown up every single year. I am just exhausted by all of the missed shots. I can’t sugar coat it. So, I won’t it.

Barnes has been here for 10 years, and once have we had a well-rounded offense in the 2018-2019 team. I wouldn’t go as far to say that last year was a great offense, it was just an offense carried by the fact we had a generational talent where more often than not you could rely on him to save you on nights that shots weren’t falling for role players.

I’m not sure how it gets fixed, but we consistently have this problem every single year. It’s the glaring flaw in an otherwise hall of fame coaching career. I’m not even asking Barnes to give us an offense that is on par with Alabama, Florida, or Kentucky (although that would certainly be nice). If he could crack the Top 20-25 then I would feel more comfortable about his team winning games in March. But as things stand right now it’s just the same song and dance as every other year, and I’m patiently waiting and dreading that night in March where we can’t throw it in the ocean and shoot like 15% from 3 in a close loss. Because that’s where this feels headed.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

Maybe he is a victim of his own success, but I am less worried about the number in front of our name from the AP poll than I am the consistent flaws in this program that have shown up every single year. I am just exhausted by all of the missed shots. I can’t sugar coat it. So, I won’t it.

Barnes has been here for 10 years, and once have we had a well-rounded offense in the 2018-2019 team. I wouldn’t go as far to say that last year was a great offense, it was just an offense carried by the fact we had a generational talent where more often than not you could rely on him to save you on nights that shots weren’t falling for role players.

I’m not sure how it gets fixed, but we consistently have this problem every single year. It’s the glaring flaw in an otherwise hall of fame coaching career. I’m not even asking Barnes to give us an offense that is on par with Alabama, Florida, or Kentucky (although that would certainly be nice). If he could crack the Top 20-25 then I would feel more comfortable about his team winning games in March. But as things stand right now it’s just the same song and dance as every other year, and I’m patiently waiting and dreading that night in March where we can’t throw it in the ocean and shoot like 15% from 3 in a close loss. Because that’s where this feels headed.

I get it, as I said I’m with you on needing to improve, with that said…Barnes had a #3 offense in the country and failed to make it out of the first weekend with Tennessee. His best run here in the tourney was with a team much more like this one and not a Bama or Kentucky type that is Top 5 offensively but sub 40 defensively, so who’s to say being that way would offer up different results?

We’re 20-5 (39th on offense/1st on defense and solidly on the 2 seed line, are you saying you’d switch with any of these simply because they score more? Or that you’d feel better or “complain” less?

2 seed Purdue: 19-6 (8th on offense/31st on defense)
3 seed Wisconsin: 19-5 (9th on offense/37th on defense)
4 seed Kentucky: 17-7 (3rd on offense/82nd on defense)
8 seed Baylor 15-9 (10th on offense/72nd on defense)
9 seed Gonzaga: 18-7 (7th on offense/44th on defense)


If you go to those teams boards after a loss it’s gonna be just like here but opposite, complaints about defense and not being able to stop someone.

 

[vol9799]

CRB’s strategy has always been to avoid fouling. So you think it’s a good idea to have players lose their focus of avoiding fouls by knocking the crap out of an opponent when they calculate on the fly that they’re going to commit a foul and redirect the mind set to foul hard?

BTW, opposing coaches almost always comment that TN plays a physical brand of basketball.

That's not what I'm advocating at all. None of this is about orchestrated cheap shots, if that's what it sounded like it was just left over frustration from the game. Fouling someone hot hard while trying to stop them from scoring isn't about calculating anything or fouling intentionally, it's just about conveying a mindset of "you're not gonna keep scoring on me at will". Like I said in the op, our physicality is being relentless, not being intimidating. There's a legitimate role for both of those in playing defense.

As to avoiding fouls being an RBB strategy. I'm sure all coaches say that. Do our stats support CRB putting more emphasis on that than other coaches? My eyes tell me we foul at about an average rate regardless of what our strategy might be, but I've never looked at the stats.