The Official Boston Red Sox Thread

#1,476
#1,476
Dbake005 said:
Ellsbury was better than Kemp last year, just for the record. I don't know when Ellsbury's contract runs out, but I think the Sox need to keep him around, even though he will be expensive.
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He's an UFA after this season I believe. So, basically, they will have two OF's signed for a combined $350 million plus if they resign him.

He was awesome last year, I agree, but I would take Kemp over him. I like Kemp's defense a little better, better throwing arm, his right handed bat would be a better fit in the lineup, he's also a year younger. But again, not happening.
 
#1,479
#1,479
Kemp's defense actually sucks... and that is what made Ellsbury better a season ago...
 
#1,480
#1,480
Kemp will need to sustain an utterly insane BABIP if he wants to repeat last season's offensive production. Off to another hot start this year. They're both great.
 
#1,481
#1,481
Dbake005 said:
Major League Leaderboards » 2011 » Batters » Dashboard | FanGraphs Baseball
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They are so close I think it's just personal preference at this point. I'd like to see a righty in the lineup personally. I think if they switched parks that would actually benefit the both of them too. I also think that if Ellsbury drops to the 3 hole that would possibly hurt his value a little, JMO.

Also, lets see the both of them build off last year and put together a string of years like the past one.

Kemp's numbers on defense kinda shocked me. Wonder if that has more to do with the size of the NL parks? Has has always been gold glove caliber no? Ellsbury really took a step forward last year in that regards.
 
#1,482
#1,482
Winning a gold glove and being great defensively just... rarely mean the same thing. Very rarely. Gold glove is a popularity / he's won it before / media likes you / had a good year overall contest.

I don't know if either can sustain last year's production... but even a slightly less great year is... still a great year for them.

And you really cannot go wrong with either one, I agree. Hell, I'd take the both of them roaming CF for my team immediately.
 
#1,483
#1,483
I agree completely on GG comments. Kemp's batting AVG will hold 100x better than Ellsbury's power. Kemp in Fenway wouldn't be fair. Kemp is far better than Ellsbury.
 
#1,484
#1,484
And yet, by some crazy statistical quandary, Ellsbury was better than Kemp a season ago.

Why shouldn't Ellsbury's power hold? Not guaranteeing it will, but he had a stretch of over 30 games where he didn't hit a home run last season, and still had those home run numbers. He crushes the ball.

For the record, I loved seeing Kemp bounce back and not be a lazy, disinterested assclown anymore... and love both of these players.
 
#1,485
#1,485
Yea the GG popularity contest say no more! As a Red Sox fan I have been well aware of that at the SS position for years *cough* Derek Jeter *cough*
 
#1,486
#1,486
Exactly. Gold gloves have become punchlines, honestly. It's kind of funny that the people voting for them hold them in such high esteem, yet they are the reason for them becoming a joke.

Rafael Palmeiro won a gold glove one year after playing 28 games, I think.
 
#1,487
#1,487
Dbake005 said:
And yet, by some crazy statistical quandary, Ellsbury was better than Kemp a season ago.

Why shouldn't Ellsbury's power hold? Not guaranteeing it will, but he had a stretch of over 30 games where he didn't hit a home run last season, and still had those home run numbers. He crushes the ball.

For the record, I loved seeing Kemp bounce back and not be a lazy, disinterested assclown anymore... and love both of these players.
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You're right, when Ellsbury makes solid contact he absolutely smashes the ball, but he has more line drive power, Kemp definitely gets more elevation. Kemp could easily make the jump to 40+, but I think Ellsbury may top out at around 30. He will always have a ton of xtra base hits tho with his speed and line drives.

I remember a while back this Sparq test video with Ellsbury, highest baseball score ever recorded I believe. Kid is an athlete.

Jacoby Ellsbury Nike SPARQ Training - YouTube
 
#1,488
#1,488
It is a statistical quandry considering was better across the board offensively while single-handedly carrying an entire lineup. I'm not bashing Ellsbury, great player and I really like him. He isn't Matt Kemp, at all.
 
#1,489
#1,489
TBrown said:
It is a statistical quandry considering was better across the board offensively while single-handedly carrying an entire lineup. I'm not bashing Ellsbury, great player and I really like him. He isn't Matt Kemp, at all.
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I don't know if this is the reason, but I think some of the difference statistically can be explained by Ellsbury's production from the leadoff position in the lineup. And the defensive stats had to have weighed in a bunch.
 
#1,490
#1,490
Well, defense matters, too. So, there's that.

Ellsbury had a slightly better year than Kemp a year ago, due to his great defensive value... not saying I'd for sure take one over the other, not saying I'd bet on Ellsbury to leave Matt Kemp in the dust this year and beyond. At all. Just putting it in perspective... Matt Kemp being one trillion times better than Ellsbury simply isn't true. :hi:

Also, Iona, I remember that too... it surprised me to see at the time. Ellsbury is much more powerful than folks realize. He's a freakish athlete in every way.
 
#1,491
#1,491
Iona, place in the lineup doesn't matter or play a role. Not being a dick, just saying.
 
#1,493
#1,493
Defensive metrics say Freddie Freeman is a horrible first baseman. I've watched the Atlanta Braves every day for years and he is every bit as good as, if not better, than Tex and Kotchman who are widely regarded as two of the better defensive first baseman. Defensive metrics and statistics don't tell the whole story. Much harder to judge than offensive performance. Anyway, I exaggerated in how much better Kemp is than Ellsbury but I do believe there is a difference there and not just a toss up pick'em. To the original question, a Buchholz/Ellsbury for Kemp deal wouldn't happen from either side, I wouldn't think.

Dbake005 said:
Well, defense matters, too. So, there's that.

Ellsbury had a slightly better year than Kemp a year ago, due to his great defensive value... not saying I'd for sure take one over the other, not saying I'd bet on Ellsbury to leave Matt Kemp in the dust this year and beyond. At all. Just putting it in perspective... Matt Kemp being one trillion times better than Ellsbury simply isn't true. :hi:

Also, Iona, I remember that too... it surprised me to see at the time. Ellsbury is much more powerful than folks realize. He's a freakish athlete in every way.
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#1,494
#1,494
TBrown said:
Defensive metrics say Freddie Freeman is a horrible first baseman. I've watched the Atlanta Braves every day for years and he is every bit as good as, if not better, than Tex and Kotchman who are widely regarded as two of the better defensive first baseman. Defensive metrics and statistics don't tell the whole story. Much harder to judge than offensive performance. Anyway, I exaggerated in how much better Kemp is than Ellsbury but I do believe there is a difference there and not just a toss up pick'em. To the original question, a Buchholz/Ellsbury for Kemp deal wouldn't happen from either side, I wouldn't think.
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Yea I'm not holding my breath, but just trying to envision what would be on the table for those two guys. They aren't guys I think will be traded, or even guys I want to trade, but I think they are probably the two best trade "chips".
 
#1,495
#1,495
ionaVOL said:
Yea I'm not holding my breath, but just trying to envision what would be on the table for those two guys. They aren't guys I think will be traded, or even guys I want to trade, but I think they are probably the two best trade "chips".
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I hear. I don't know if it would be possible to trade them together and get equal value in return. Two really good players. Could fetch high returns in separate deals.
 
#1,496
#1,496
That deal would never happen. And my point in immediately saying "ellsbury was better" was to point out that giving up ellsbury + good starting pitcher for guy who is about the same as ellsbury wouldn't be a good deal for the sox.

TBrown, I don't have the book with me here at work, but when I get home I will try to find it and see what differences there are in Freeman and the good defensive first basemen.
The other bad UZR ratings for 1B are Mark Reynolds, Mike Morse, Ryan Howard, and Prince Fielder... are those guys good first baseman, too? I don't think you can completely write off defensive statistics just because you think Freeman is better.

I do agree that it is harder to judge than offensive performance. I'm still learning a lot about it, myself.
 
#1,497
#1,497
TBrown said:
I hear. I don't know if it would be possible to trade them together and get equal value in return. Two really good players. Could fetch high returns in separate deals.
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Exactly, that's my ideal scenario. I think they each could bring back a huge return of solid veteran + blue chip prospect or two.
 
#1,498
#1,498
For example, you guys follow the Braves and Nationals...

In your opinions what would you be willing to give up in deals for each of those players?

Something along these lines:

Ellsbury and a good pitching prospect for Jurjens and Heyward?

Buchholz for Storen and a good pitching prospect?

Those may be crazy, but you get the idea, trying to gauge their worth objectively hah
 
#1,499
#1,499
I didnt mean to completely dismiss them. I have no doubt Ellsbury is a premiere CFer. As you said, he is a freak athlete. So is Kemp. I was just saying I have more faith in offensive statistics and Kemp is better across the board offensively.

Even in comparing positions, CF and 1st are entirely different. Range in CF is essential. Range at 1st is hardly even a requirement. Freeman is a large target, his footwork is flawless, and he handles everything in the dirt. I don't care if his UZR or whatever range factor is low. So someone else gets to another ground ball here or there. Freeman is a vacuum. In CF, I assume anyone can catch a fly ball once they get there. Getting there is the main thing. Ellsbury tracks with the best of them, I assume.

Dbake005 said:
That deal would never happen. And my point in immediately saying "ellsbury was better" was to point out that giving up ellsbury + good starting pitcher for guy who is about the same as ellsbury wouldn't be a good deal for the sox.

TBrown, I don't have the book with me here at work, but when I get home I will try to find it and see what differences there are in Freeman and the good defensive first basemen.
The other bad UZR ratings for 1B are Mark Reynolds, Mike Morse, Ryan Howard, and Prince Fielder... are those guys good first baseman, too? I don't think you can completely write off defensive statistics just because you think Freeman is better.

I do agree that it is harder to judge than offensive performance. I'm still learning a lot about it, myself.
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#1,500
#1,500
If his contract were not an issue, I would trade anyone in the organization shy of Heyward for Ellsbury as a fan. If it were actually my decision to make, I'd have to think about moving Heyward too given his question marks. I still don't think I would cause his age and potential (and obviously difference in salaries). Anything else, I would trade for Ellsbury, no doubt, if ownership would keep him.

ionaVOL said:
For example, you guys follow the Braves and Nationals...

In your opinions what would you be willing to give up in deals for each of those players?

Something along these lines:

Ellsbury and a good pitching prospect for Jurjens and Heyward?

Buchholz for Storen and a good pitching prospect?

Those may be crazy, but you get the idea, trying to gauge their worth objectively hah
Click to expand...
 
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