I've been doing a little research on Little E for this thread.
From 2000-03, Dale Jr. won an average of two races per year. His best year was 2004, when he won six races. From 2005-10, he won only three races.
To win 18 races in the Cup Series, you have to have done something right at one time or another. But, I have to somewhat discredit seven of those wins, the ones at the restrictor plate tracks. I will give him credit and say he is better at these tracks than most, but equipment has a lot to do with his success. When he won those races on those tracks, the DEI cars were unstoppable. I mean, if Michael Waltrip can win races at those tracks in those cars, really anyone could. So skill and talent has little to do with those wins, IMO. I don't remember the circumstances from the rest of the wins, but I'm sure in most of them he had the better car and won the race straight out. However, one's like Michigan '08 I have to discredit also because it was a fuel mileage win. A win is a win no doubt, but some credibility is lost when a driver wins a race this way.
Obviously, Dale Jr. has had some success in his career. But whatever magic he had early in his career has long since past him by. He has success occasionally, but even a blind squirrel finds a nut every once in a while.
In conclusion, Dale Jr. has had skill, talent, desire to win, whatever you want to call it at one time. But now, yes, Dale Jr. is terrible.