The SEC could have 7 teams finish the season 10-2

#76
#76
barney said:
Florida and Arkansas are gonna knock off some of these teams
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Yep like I say some teams lose a few early and folks trash them and then they improve. Florida, South Carolina and Arkansas have shown the ability to play well at times. Consistency is key, we must be ready to play every game here on out. We can’t sleep walk Kentucky or Mississippi State we must seek to take them out! GBO
 
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#77
#77
volfan102455 said:
Looking at the way the teams are selected it says - the Power 4 conference champions get the automatic bids. So besides hoping that there are a few undefeated or 1 loss teams, we also have to hope that lower ranked Power 4 teams don't pull the upsets in the conference championship games.

Example in the ACC where you have Miami, Clemson and Pitt and SMU - Miami does not play any of the other three but each other. By luck, they all end up with 1 loss in conference which leaves SMU and Clemson with 2 losses, Pitt with 1 loss. And then due to the matchups one of the 2 loss teams plays Miami and beats them. - They are in and so is Miami - but you have 1 loss Pitt.

Not going to argue the strength of the conferences - but just pointing out that this is how teams in the SEC will be left out.

Tennessee's best path is to win out and that includes winning the conference championship game. Anything else but that and any combination of situations could see them on the outside looking in.

The rules were set up to reward the winners of the conference championship games regardless of how many losses those teams have or where they are ranked - that is why they are still being played.

I fully expect to see 1 or 2, maybe more teams ranked outside the top 12 in the team of 12. A non conference champion probably needs to be in the top 5 or 6 to be assured of a spot.
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The way things are setting up the ACC and Big12 are going to be potential problems for some 2-loss SEC teams. 11-1 or 12-1 Miami or 10-2 UT? 11-1 or 12-1 BYU or 10-2 UGA? Hopefully some of these teams will start losing games but the conferences have gotten so big that these teams aren’t playing each other.
 
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#80
#80
Gandalf said:
Given that each SEC team has already lost at least one game this season, the maximum achievable record for any of these teams by the end of the season is 11-1. Therefore, for teams with one current loss, only one more can be sustained to finish at 10-2. Here’s a breakdown for each team based on their path to achieve that record.

### Updated Analysis by Team (for 10-2 Finish)

1. **Texas A&M (6-1)**
- **Remaining Games**: LSU, USC, New Mexico State, Auburn, Texas.
- **Path to 10-2**: Wins over USC, New Mexico State, Auburn; losses to LSU and Texas.

2. **LSU (6-1)**
- **Remaining Games**: Texas A&M, Alabama, Florida, Vanderbilt, Oklahoma.
- **Path to 10-2**: Wins over Texas A&M, Florida, Vanderbilt; losses to Alabama and Oklahoma.

3. **Georgia (6-1)**
- **Remaining Games**: Florida, Ole Miss, Tennessee, UMass, Georgia Tech.
- **Path to 10-2**: Wins over Florida, Tennessee, UMass, Georgia Tech; loss to Ole Miss.

4. **Tennessee (6-1)**
- **Remaining Games**: Kentucky, Mississippi State, Georgia, UTEP, Vanderbilt.
- **Path to 10-2**: Wins over Kentucky, Mississippi State, UTEP; loss to either Georgia or Vanderbilt.

5. **Missouri (6-1)**
- **Remaining Games**: Alabama, Oklahoma, USC, Mississippi State, Arkansas.
- **Path to 10-2**: Wins over USC, Mississippi State, Arkansas; losses to Alabama and Oklahoma.

6. **Vanderbilt (5-2)**
- **Remaining Games**: Texas, Auburn, USC, LSU, Tennessee.
- **Path to 10-2**: Wins over Auburn, USC, Tennessee; losses to Texas and LSU.

7. **Alabama (5-2)**
- **Remaining Games**: Missouri, LSU, Mercer, Oklahoma, Auburn.
- **Path to 10-2**: Wins over Missouri, LSU, Mercer, Auburn; loss to Oklahoma.

8. **Ole Miss (5-2)**
- **Remaining Games**: Oklahoma, Arkansas, Georgia, Florida, Mississippi State.
- **Path to 10-2**: Wins over Arkansas, Florida, Mississippi State; loss to Oklahoma.

By distributing wins and losses selectively in this way, **all eight teams listed could potentially end the season with a 10-2 record**.
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I need help understanding this, Gandalf.

-- Why isn't Texas listed?

-- LSU, Mizzou, Bama, and Ole Miss already all have 2 losses (LSU and Mizzou just got those losses, but Ole Miss and Bama had them before this weekend). So the path to 10-2 for all of them must be, "win out." Right?

-- And Vandy already has 3 losses (though they didn't when you wrote this, I think). So there's no path for them.

I think at this point, a max of 7 SEC teams could end up 10-2 or better (because Bama and LSU still have to play).

Right?
 
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#81
#81
TennCan said:
There are currently 9 SEC teams with 2 or fewer losses. There are scenarios where as many as 7 of those teams could end the regular season at 10-2, which would be insanity. Out of the 6 teams with only 1 loss currently, I believe only the winner of Tenn/UGA and Texas have a real chance of finishing with only one loss. How many teams do you think end the regular season with 1 loss and how many with 2 losses?

My prediction is (0) 1-loss teams and (4-5) 2-loss teams.

Below is the remaining schedule for each of the 9 teams with 2 or fewer losses:



Texas A&M (6-1): LSU, @USC, New Mexico St, @Auburn, Texas

LSU (6-1): @A&M, Alabama, @UF, Vandy, Okla

Georgia (6-1): UF, @Ole Miss, UT, U Mass, GT

Tennessee (6-1): UK, Miss St, @UGA, Utep, @Vandy

Missouri (6-1): @Alabama, Okla, @USC, @Miss St, Ark

Texas (6-1): @Vandy, UF, @Ark, UK, @A&M

Vandy (5-2): Texas, @Auburn, USC, @lsu, Tenn

Alabama (5-2): Mizz, @lsu, Mercer, @ Okla, Auburn

Ole Miss (5-2): Okla, @Ark, UGA, UF, Miss St.
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Vandy is out.

Missouri is out.

Need Georgia to take care of Ole MS and Bama to take care of LSU.
 
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#82
#82
Orange931 said:
What does us losing to Georgia State with Cornbread 5+ years ago have to do with anything he/she mentioned about this year?
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Forget the year, you know my point was those who presume to look down their noses at others, should check their mirror first.
We're not far removed from our own era of discontent. Beware of Sir Arrogance, Queen Karma is often not far behind.
 
#83
#83
WoodsmanVol said:
Forget the year, you know my point was those who presume to look down their noses at others, should check their mirror first.
We're not far removed from our own era of discontent. Beware of Sir Arrogance, Queen Karma is often not far behind.
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No offense and not trying to argue here, but I honestly don’t think anyone on this board cares about that era that UT had the worst coach in its history. We are far enough removed from that and it has no bearing on this year.
 
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#84
#84
Orange931 said:
No offense and not trying to argue here, but I honestly don’t think anyone on this board cares about that era that UT had the worst coach in its history. We are far enough removed from that and it has no bearing on this year.
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True. BUT, that's not even close to what I was referring unto.
 
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#85
#85
VFL-82-JP said:
I need help understanding this, Gandalf.

-- Why isn't Texas listed?

-- LSU, Mizzou, Bama, and Ole Miss already all have 2 losses (LSU and Mizzou just got those losses, but Ole Miss and Bama had them before this weekend). So the path to 10-2 for all of them must be, "win out." Right?

-- And Vandy already has 3 losses (though they didn't when you wrote this, I think). So there's no path for them.

I think at this point, a max of 7 SEC teams could end up 10-2 or better (because Bama and LSU still have to play).

Right?
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I think you are forgetting the Non - conference --- losses by LSU and Tx A&M. As well as Vandy. Missouri is on life support at the moment.
LSU/Alabama is an elimination game.

Ole Miss/Alabama/LSU must win out. Missouri I am assuming with the QB injury will not win out.
 
#86
#86
ntxVOL said:
Yeah, it looks awfully chaotic right now. Schedules aren't very balanced and not enough data points with so many teams.

I think a 9 game conference schedule would help.
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I agree but boy what a grind. A 4 division Balanced SEC Conference would be a possibility.
 
#88
#88
hUTch2002 said:
The way things are setting up the ACC and Big12 are going to be potential problems for some 2-loss SEC teams.
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Win the SEC and you're in. Lose and you're hopefully hoping to possibly potentially prospectively get picked. 10-2 is absolutely not a lock to be in the playoff. Especially if you're not even in your conference title chase....
 
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#89
#89
Sudden Impact said:
I agree but boy what a grind. A 4 division Balanced SEC Conference would be a possibility.
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The major conferences need to integrate a playoff type system to justify their champion and runner-up. The ability to play cupcakes and get to the conference championship game is going to throw off seeding for the playoffs.
 
#90
#90
VFFL@THE BEACH said:
The major conferences need to integrate a playoff type system to justify their champion and runner-up. The ability to play cupcakes and get to the conference championship game is going to throw off seeding for the playoffs.
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Going to have to add a conference game or go back to divisions where the division winners play in title game. Conferences are too damn big to get a full picture of who is better than others when so many teams don’t play.
 
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#91
#91
VFFL@THE BEACH said:
The major conferences need to integrate a playoff type system to justify their champion and runner-up. The ability to play cupcakes and get to the conference championship game is going to throw off seeding for the playoffs.
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There’s only two conferences that matter. They are already getting a bigger cut of the 12 team playoff money. They are going to expect preferential treatment when selecting at large teams as well. Nothing changes without the SEC and B1G agreeing.

It's always going to be about the money.
 
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#92
#92
Here is how I rank the resumes (right now) for the teams still alive for playoffs...

1. UGA
2. A&M
3. Tennessee
4. Texas
5. Bama
6. LSU
7. Ole Miss
 
#93
#93
Sudden Impact said:
I think you are forgetting the Non - conference --- losses by LSU and Tx A&M. As well as Vandy. Missouri is on life support at the moment.
LSU/Alabama is an elimination game.

Ole Miss/Alabama/LSU must win out. Missouri I am assuming with the QB injury will not win out.
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Missouri is not getting in even if they win out. They will play two quality teams and got crushed by both.
 
#94
#94
What about this scenario

UGA loses at Ole Miss 10-2
A&M loses at USCe 10-2
TN loses at UGA 10-2
TEX loses at A&M. 10-2
Ole Miss wins out 10-2
LSU wins out 10-2

SECCG would be A&M vs LSU

Who's in, who's out?
 
#95
#95
hUTch2002 said:
The way things are setting up the ACC and Big12 are going to be potential problems for some 2-loss SEC teams. 11-1 or 12-1 Miami or 10-2 UT? 11-1 or 12-1 BYU or 10-2 UGA? Hopefully some of these teams will start losing games but the conferences have gotten so big that these teams aren’t playing each other.
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ACC will not be a problem. So far Clemson has played one decent team and got crushed. Miami has not played a ranked team and does not play one in regular season. Pitt plays SMU and Clemson so that will eliminate one or two of those teams. SMU has not played a team currently ranked. They play Pitt so that is their only chance unless they make ACC Champ game.
 
#96
#96
This is why that boneheaded garbage loss at Arkansas after a d@!n open week is still so infuriating. We have a season with a favorable schedule (for once) AND a win over Florida and Bummer but we still just find ways to give the media (and everyone else) a chance to keep us out of the playoffs. Had we just taken care of business against the Hogs, a team we should have beaten comfortably, we wouldn’t have to be thinking about the possibility of getting left out. Instead, we pull our once yearly unexplainable choke job and make things really difficult for ourselves.

On the bright side, it’s better than the Pruitt, Butch, and Dooley years, so at least we’ve got that.
 
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#98
#98
LivinginthePast said:
Will we be able to get in if we finish 10-2 with a loss to Georgia ?
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I think there is a decent chance because I still think teams will lose. I am not confident that teams like Clemson, Iowa State, LSU, etc. will win out. Even Ohio State looks meh.

Some of these teams are only this high because of softer schedules and their schedules are back loaded.
 
#99
#99
BigOrangeMojo said:
What about this scenario

UGA loses at Ole Miss 10-2
A&M loses at USCe 10-2
TN loses at UGA 10-2
TEX loses at A&M. 10-2
Ole Miss wins out 10-2
LSU wins out 10-2

SECCG would be A&M vs LSU

Who's in, who's out?
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UGA and A&M in…LsU and Ole Miss out….TN, Texas would be a very tough call….if A&M won title game


assuming LSU doesn’t win title game…if they win then UGA, A&M, and LSU in and then who knows…need Pitt and IU to lose
 
#100
#100
SEC Title game will be the winner of the Texas battle and the winner of Georgia vs. Tennessee IMO. Sure, there are chances for upset but I am leaning towards that matchup.

I don't think LSU is that good and was a product of a soft early schedule. They will drop another game (likely Alabama next week). That USC loss in Vegas is really going to hurt LSU's playoff shot. That is a worse loss than our Arkansas loss IMO.
 
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