The Stolen Arizona Governor Race - Kari Lake vs. Katie Hobbs

[BigOrangeMojo]

ah ok - where are you getting that data?

Im looking at https://elections.maricopa.gov/results-and-data/historic-results.html?year=2022 and from what I can see, there were about 1.5m votes cast out of 2.5m registered voters (seems about right, usually various between 40-60%).

Candidate Party Total
MASTERS, BLAKE REP 710,491 45.76%
KELLY, MARK DEM 809,573 52.14%
VICTOR, MARC J. LBT 31,099 2.00%
Write-in 1,464 0.09%
Total Votes 1,552,627

Candidate Party Total
LAKE, KARI REP 752,714 48.63%
HOBBS, KATIE DEM 790,352 51.06%
Write-in 4,903 0.32%
Total Votes 1,547,969

then compare these to https://elections.maricopa.gov/asset/jcr:f9c43854-dc05-46c4-ac47-4467f599476b/11-06-2018 Final Official Summary Report NOV 2018.pdf

interesting.

There was 1.563 million who cast votes in total.

1.553 million cast votes in Sen race. If there were "Hobbs only" gov ballots, the most that could be is 10k (1.563 - 1.553). Lake lost by more than that...

Far more likely that 10K didn't like either Senate candidate vs voting Hobbs only

 

[BigOrangeMojo]

From the 2018 data you provided, 15K didn't vote in the Senate race that year. Just further proves the 10K who didn't vote in 22 Senate election did not cast these mysterious (and unsubstantiated) Hobbs only ballots.

If the max number of Hobbs only votes could be 10K (not enough to turn election btw) and that max amount is actually lower than prior elections just shows Lake's theory of Hobbs only votes swinging the election is pure BS....


There might be fraud but it is not mathematically possible it came from stuffing the ballot box with Hobbs only ballots..

 

[BowlBrother85]

There's always going to be some level of election chicanery on the extreme margins. It will be both sides participating.

The type of widespread election fraud theories that can swing elections by multiple percentage points perpetuated by Trump, Lake, Lindell, etc. just defy logic, demographics, and basic human nature/self interest...

The majority of the proven isolated cases of chicanery from 2020 was from Trump voters, such as the guy in Las Vegas, who voted in his dead wife's name, but tried to blame it on Democrats.

 

[Gandalf]

There's always going to be some level of election chicanery on the extreme margins. It will be both sides participating.

The type of widespread election fraud theories that can swing elections by multiple percentage points perpetuated by Trump, Lake, Lindell, etc. just defy logic, demographics, and basic human nature/self interest...

widepread, no - although there was a LOT of voter manipulation that certainly added multiple percentage points - but that is grey area in legality. Same as multiple news organizations in a coordinated effort burying Hunter story just before the election, specifically because they want their guy to win.

Reps and Dems both cheat that is true - but they do so in different ways mostly due to where their bases are. Country vs city. With the tech side helping the dems, their cheating got much better. Meanwhile, Reps were slow to pick up on new methods that were unavailable to them really. Frankly, now that there are no real morals in voting, etc - it is total war and honor is only discussed by the losers - I wish the GOP would simply get better at cheating. Then they should take it over and eliminate the possibility to cheat (or at least the vast possibility). Unfortunately, history is clear that once cheating is introduced, neither side is ever incentivized to undo the mechanisms to do so while they are in power.

But reality is it is not hard at all if you are prepared, to grift up 100k ballots or so in a major city/county that will swing the whole state. The whole mail in thing due to covid just made it easy to get the ballots back into the box (more difficult previously when you show up with bundles). All you need to do is do an op like that in 4 or 5 major Dem owned cities like Atlanta/Philly/Detroit/Minneapolis, etc and you swing the whole state and thus the electoral count and the win. Compared to the overall vote, its miniscule but <80k ballots in total kept Trump from the presidency.

And I will simply say I ran elections where there more than 2.5m registered voters.

 

[Gandalf]

View attachment 550108

There was 1.563 million who cast votes in total.

1.553 million cast votes in Sen race. If there were "Hobbs only" gov ballots, the most that could be is 10k (1.563 - 1.553). Lake lost by more than that...

Far more likely that 10K didn't like either Senate candidate vs voting Hobbs only

I agree in general that the "Hobbs only" idea doesnt seem to hold water to me. First, she got more votes than Blake. Second, if I am going to create fraudulent paper, I am going to vote down ballot too, straight ticket Dem. why waste it? Now if I am caught in a hurry on election night and I didnt prepare enough, then maybe my group of 5 or so volunteers are just filling in one instead of the whole thing. But they had plenty of time to prepare for this, so why wouldn't I cast for the US Senate race, which is frankly a LOT more important than the Gov race (at least to the national level operatives who would be running this sort of thing)

More likely what would have happened is they were making ballots for Kelly and Hobbs got to be the beneficiary.

From the 2018 data you provided, 15K didn't vote in the Senate race that year. Just further proves the 10K who didn't vote in 22 Senate election did not cast these mysterious (and unsubstantiated) Hobbs only ballots.

If the max number of Hobbs only votes could be 10K (not enough to turn election btw) and that max amount is actually lower than prior elections just shows Lake's theory of Hobbs only votes swinging the election is pure BS....


There might be fraud but it is not mathematically possible it came from stuffing the ballot box with Hobbs only ballots..

Totally agreed - as above, HIGHLEY unlikely that, IF there was systematic cheating, that it would be a Hobbs only ballot.

Frankly just shows that Lake's team doesnt know what they are talking about. Should have hired someone from the murky depths like I used to be to run both a defensive line as well as an offensive game to counter.

 

[BreatheUT]

Why are dims too dumb and lazy to go vote? Gotta go the UPS man just put my “assault rifles” I ordered on the porch. He took them to the wrong address last time.

The cheat by mail scheme and collecting piles of votes through harvesting is much easier.

 

[BowlBrother85]

The cheat by mail scheme and collecting piles of votes through harvesting is much easier.

You have never provided any evidence that systemic fraud has resulted from voting by mail. You never provide proof of anything. You just run your mouth. It's sour grapes.

 

[BreatheUT]

You have never provided any evidence that systemic fraud has resulted from voting by mail. You never provide proof of anything. You just run your mouth. It's sour grapes.

And you think your links prove otherwise?

A man can lead a horse to water or a mule but I can't force you to drink it. I've provided actual articles of what democrats tried to do in this very state but you refuse to believe it because you don't know how to deduce the next step. We know it didn't work in this state so that's why y'all azzes got walloped here. Luther is still fantasizing that Tennessee is purple.

 

[BowlBrother85]

And you think your links prove otherwise?

A man can lead a horse to water or a mule but I can't force you to drink it. I've provided actual articles of what democrats tried to do in this very state but you refuse to believe it because you don't know how to deduce the next step.

You have not provided proof that systemic fraud occurred. My links do prove that voting by mail does not increase fraud or even the likelihood of fraud. My links come with actual facts, including the safeguards implemented and rigorous steps which are followed in the process of counting ballots.

You don't provide jack $hit.

 

[C-south]

You have never provided any evidence that systemic fraud has resulted from voting by mail. You never provide proof of anything. You just run your mouth. It's sour grapes.

It’s the one thing the incompetent government prevents fraud in. The hundreds of billions lost due to fraud with unemployment and other handouts is an outlier.

 

[AM64]

Signature verification is a recipe for chaos and a complete waste of time. It's really a convenient way for the GOP to throw out legitimate votes,
which I'm sure is the idea. Nobody signs their name the exact same way all the time. More to the point, there is no evidence
at all, and never has been, that signature fraud is an issue. It hasn't been, and it isn't. This is just another way for Republicans to try and steal
elections. The only real fraud that's being attempted is by the GOP--FACT. They are the people who worked in various ways, in many states,
to suppress Democratic votes. Who disputes that?

Signatures are a pizz poor way of verifying anything. It was probably more accurate before the advent of cellphones and computers when people still continued to write and sign documents on a frequent basis. I know my signature today will not match well my voter registration signature from 40 years ago. Currently a simple fingerprint would be better than a signature. As a country, we no longer write enough to maintain the skill.

 

[AM64]

There is no evidence? You know you have to be able to inspect signatures in order to obtain evidence.

Exactly; "there's no evidence" if you don't investigate. At the end of an election about half the people will be satisfied or don't care, and the other half will disagree to varying degrees, so other than complaining, nothing changes and nobody investigates. Our system is so full of holes that you can be registered to vote multiple places because a new registration doesn't cause a check to delete existing registrations ... and dems don't like people culling the voter rolls for any reason. However, "there's no evidence" that people vote multiple times since nobody looks for that either. We're supposedly a first world country, but we have a banana republic voting system.

 

[AM64]

You have never provided any evidence that systemic fraud has resulted from voting by mail. You never provide proof of anything. You just run your mouth. It's sour grapes.

Have you ever stopped to think that the government (election commissions) owns the evidence; and that if you as an outsider held voting records in your hands you would almost certainly be guilty of a criminal act? A poll watcher may see something and report something, but according to your types, that's anecdotal ... not proof. Courts basically punted the issue and said without proof you can't have access to records that constitute proof. In other words, no one on the outside can do anything, and nobody on the inside will do anything because that would question their competence and honesty.

 

[AM64]

It’s the one thing the incompetent government prevents fraud in. The hundreds of billions lost due to fraud with unemployment and other handouts is an outlier.

Boggles the mind, doesn't it. The government can be so screwed up at everything else, but by damn we always get elections right. Absolutely incredible. The Congressional Budget Office has seemingly never scored the cost of legislation correctly, the people responsible for US statistical information (like employment figures) are making wild adjustments, nobody can seem to be on top of government inventories, but those guys and gals down at the local election commission just nail it every time ...

 

[BowlBrother85]

Have you ever stopped to think that the government (election commissions) owns the evidence; and that if you as an outsider held voting records in your hands you would almost certainly be guilty of a criminal act? A poll watcher may see something and report something, but according to your types, that's anecdotal ... not proof. Courts basically punted the issue and said without proof you can't have access to records that constitute proof. In other words, no one on the outside can do anything, and nobody on the inside will do anything because that would question their competence and honesty.

Well, the burden of proof does rest with the party who is making the accusation of wrong-doing. That's just how it is. Elections aren't going to be overturned just because Ramona from Arizona thinks she saw something fishy.

When it comes to the 2020 elections, there were many specific claims of voter fraud made. The overwhelming majority of them were fairly easy to de-bunk. In most cases, video was either being misrepresented or lacking context.

 

[AM64]

Well, the burden of proof does rest with the party who is making the accusation of wrong-doing. That's just how it is. Elections aren't going to be overturned just because Ramona from Arizona thinks she saw something fishy.

When it comes to the 2020 elections, there were many specific claims of voter fraud made. The overwhelming majority of them were fairly easy to de-bunk. In most cases, video was either being misrepresented or lacking context.

You mean the vast majority of the claims that your media decided to cover were "easily debunked"? Left wing fact checkers are pretty amazing at their jobs; they'd make Joey Goebbels very very proud.

 

[rekinhavoc]

You mean the vast majority of the claims that your media decided to cover were "easily debunked"? Left wing fact checkers are pretty amazing at their jobs; they'd make Joey Goebbels very very proud.

The 11 principles of Nazi propaganda created by Goebbels:

1.- Principle of simplification and the single enemy. Adopt a single idea, a single Symbol; Individualize the adversary into a single enemy.

2.- Principle of the contagion method. Gather diverse adversaries into a single category or individual; The adversaries must be made up of an individual sum.

3.- Principle of transposition. Load on the opponent his own errors or defects, responding the attack with the attack. "If you can't deny the bad news, invent others that distract them."

4.- Principle of exaggeration and disfigurement. Turn any anecdote, however small, into a serious threat.

5.- Principle of popularization. “All propaganda must be popular, adapting its level to the least intelligent of the individuals to whom it is directed. The larger the mass to convince, the smaller the mental effort must be made. The receptive capacity of the masses is limited and their understanding poor; in addition, they have great facility to forget ”.

6.- Orchestration principle. "Propaganda must be limited to a small number of ideas and repeated tirelessly, presented over and over from different perspectives but always converging on the same concept. Without fissures or doubts ”. This is also where the famous phrase comes from: "If a lie is repeated enough, it eventually becomes true."

7.- Principle of renewal. New information and arguments must be constantly broadcast at such a rate that when the opponent responds the public is already interested in something else. The adversary's responses must never be able to counter the increasing level of accusations.

8.- Principle of plausibility. Construct arguments from various sources, through so-called balloon probes or fragmentary information.

9.- Principle of silencing. Silencing on issues on which there are no arguments and disguising the news that favors the adversary, also counterprogramming with the help of related media.

10.- Principle of transfusion. As a general rule, propaganda always operates from a pre-existing substrate, be it a national mythology or a complex of traditional hatreds and prejudices; it is about spreading arguments that can take root in primitive attitudes.

11.- Principle of unanimity. To convince many people that they think "like everyone else", creating the impression of unanimity.

 

[BowlBrother85]

You mean the vast majority of the claims that your media decided to cover were "easily debunked"? Left wing fact checkers are pretty amazing at their jobs; they'd make Joey Goebbels very very proud.

No, the vast majority of the claims made by :

Donald Trump
Rudy Giuliani
Sidney Powell
Peter Navarro
Lin Wood
Jenna Ellis
Kari Lake
Maria Bartiromo
Lou Dobbs
Jeanine Pirro
Marjorie Taylor Greene

.... were easily de-bunked. There were hundreds of them. And not all of the fact-checkers were "left wing" either. Georgia's Republican Secretary of State, Brad Raffensperger, de-bunked many concerning Cobb County and Fulton County. So did Gabriel Sterling, a Republican elections official.

Name a theory concerning fraud from the 2020 Presidential Election and I will post no fewer than 3 links that emphatically debunks it.

 

[volgr]

You have never provided any evidence that systemic fraud has resulted from voting by mail. You never provide proof of anything. You just run your mouth. It's sour grapes.

Bowl: You have no proof

Me: Ok, but lets do a mass signature verification and check. Just to see if there is any need to be concerned. For transparency sake.

Bowl: You conspiracy theorist!! How dare you question elections!! Muh Democracyyyyyy!!

 

[volgr]

Think back to 2016 when Hillary, through Jill Stein, asked for a recount somewhere in the upper mid-west. Miwaukee maybe? Anyway, I was all for it. Please, by all means, go over a blue city with a fine tooth comb. They ended up closing up shop when they found more Trump votes and other questionable practices that didnt look good for local Dem election officials.

 

[Gandalf]

The 11 principles of Nazi propaganda created by Goebbels:

1.- Principle of simplification and the single enemy. Adopt a single idea, a single Symbol; Individualize the adversary into a single enemy.

2.- Principle of the contagion method. Gather diverse adversaries into a single category or individual; The adversaries must be made up of an individual sum.

3.- Principle of transposition. Load on the opponent his own errors or defects, responding the attack with the attack. "If you can't deny the bad news, invent others that distract them."

4.- Principle of exaggeration and disfigurement. Turn any anecdote, however small, into a serious threat.

5.- Principle of popularization. “All propaganda must be popular, adapting its level to the least intelligent of the individuals to whom it is directed. The larger the mass to convince, the smaller the mental effort must be made. The receptive capacity of the masses is limited and their understanding poor; in addition, they have great facility to forget ”.

6.- Orchestration principle. "Propaganda must be limited to a small number of ideas and repeated tirelessly, presented over and over from different perspectives but always converging on the same concept. Without fissures or doubts ”. This is also where the famous phrase comes from: "If a lie is repeated enough, it eventually becomes true."

7.- Principle of renewal. New information and arguments must be constantly broadcast at such a rate that when the opponent responds the public is already interested in something else. The adversary's responses must never be able to counter the increasing level of accusations.

8.- Principle of plausibility. Construct arguments from various sources, through so-called balloon probes or fragmentary information.

9.- Principle of silencing. Silencing on issues on which there are no arguments and disguising the news that favors the adversary, also counterprogramming with the help of related media.

10.- Principle of transfusion. As a general rule, propaganda always operates from a pre-existing substrate, be it a national mythology or a complex of traditional hatreds and prejudices; it is about spreading arguments that can take root in primitive attitudes.

11.- Principle of unanimity. To convince many people that they think "like everyone else", creating the impression of unanimity.

Saul Alinsky’s Rules for Radicals is the continuation of these tactics.

 

[AM64]

No, the vast majority of the claims made by :

Donald Trump
Rudy Giuliani
Sidney Powell
Peter Navarro
Lin Wood
Jenna Ellis
Kari Lake
Maria Bartiromo
Lou Dobbs
Jeanine Pirro
Marjorie Taylor Greene

.... were easily de-bunked. There were hundreds of them. And not all of the fact-checkers were "left wing" either. Georgia's Republican Secretary of State, Brad Raffensperger, de-bunked many concerning Cobb County and Fulton County. So did Gabriel Sterling, a Republican elections official.

Name a theory concerning fraud from the 2020 Presidential Election and I will post no fewer than 3 links that emphatically debunks it.

Of course they were "easily de-bunked", but virtually none of those were first person accounts of actual misconduct. I can make all kinds of wild claims about any number of things without actually witnessing them, and they would be meaningless because I had no first hand knowledge. That's largely what we do in forums like this - discuss stuff that we haven't been an actual part of. So you attack an idiot like Rudy or Sidney as a means to trash a whole argument; it's effective, and then you can avoid discussing the real issues because you have "discredited" the "whole issue". It's a little like a team that didn't play well saying they lost the game because of bad officiating and deflecting poor performance by showing refs made a mistake or so.

Your side knows as well as anybody that Trump and his merry band of idiots are fools who don't know when to shut up, how to profit from it, and how they can defuse the real issues by invoking the loud mouth idiot clause.

 

[Gandalf]

This guy points of the main gaps that enable cheating. But truthfully, if we are table topping ballots ahead of time, it doesnt matter because I will have an indicia of what the voter's signature is from the registration books, so I can trace/copy, etc. Easy enough to do if you plan ahead of time. And if they are done correctly, a basic signature analysis will never catch them. You would have to know they are bad and get the voter to come in and say, NO I did not sign that. But that doesnt happen because you create your fraudulent ballots from people you know will not show up at the polls.

Ballot signature matching system in Maricopa County is 'almost illegal,' says longtime FBI expert

 

[turbovol]

You have never provided any evidence that systemic fraud has resulted from voting by mail. You never provide proof of anything. You just run your mouth. It's sour grapes.

Yes: It's really Republiicans opting for authoritarianism and lies over democracy and accepting defeat like the manly "patriots" they used to pretend to be. Trump lied about election fraud--period--and he's further corrupted MAGA minds already spooked by years of right-wing fear-mongering about gays and abortion, etc. Republicans, under the guise of worrying about vote fraud by Dems, are really trying to put themselves in a position to steal elections themselves. They've been trying to suppress the Democratic vote for years--see current efforts to make it harder for college students to vote. Classic GOP attempt to cheat.

 

[turbovol]

This guy points of the main gaps that enable cheating. But truthfully, if we are table topping ballots ahead of time, it doesnt matter because I will have an indicia of what the voter's signature is from the registration books, so I can trace/copy, etc. Easy enough to do if you plan ahead of time. And if they are done correctly, a basic signature analysis will never catch them. You would have to know they are bad and get the voter to come in and say, NO I did not sign that. But that doesnt happen because you create your fraudulent ballots from people you know will not show up at the polls.

Ballot signature matching system in Maricopa County is 'almost illegal,' says longtime FBI expert

So they really have people who are supposed to look at the signatures on mail-in ballots and compare them to a previous signature(s) by a voter and decide if the sig is valid? As the former FBI agent says, it's a terrible idea that will just result in valid votes being invalidated. You'd need a large number of people with lots of training and experience--and even then it's incredibly problematic given that people don't sign their names the exact way every time. Signature verification is an effort to solve a problem that doesn't exist and would only CREATE a problem. In an effort to weed out invalid ballots, it would weed out /valid/ votes.