The (Unofficial) French Open Thread

#1
kidbourbon

kidbourbon

Disgusting!
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#1
Roland Garros is upon us. They are playing the qualy draws right now and the main action starts in two days, I believe.

I'm going to write a more detailed analysis a bit later on, but I wanted to go ahead and get the thread started.

Usually when we're talking about the French Open, the question isn't whether Rafa will win it, but how much carnage will he leave in his wake of domination. This year, I think the question is very simple:

Rafa or Djokovic -- who ya got?

This isn't to say that other players -- Federer, Delpo, Ferrer, Berdych, hell even Juan Monaco -- aren't playing great tennis right now. But Rafa and Djoker have pretty clearly established that they are the top stratosphere in the game of men's tennis. Federer looks like he is in that conversation in the early rounds, and people get fooled. I don't get fooled. It's Rafa, it's Novak, or it's a serious injury to one or both of them. Three options, and three options only, my friends.

On the women's side, I am going to pay attention a little bit this year, but just to pay attention to Serena. Serena is going to win the French Open, and you can take that to the bank. Nobody else has a chance. It is Serena's for the taking, and she will take it.

If you have no contrary rooting interest, please do root for Juan Monaco. I win nearly $3,000 if he wins the tournament outright. Of course, he definitely isnt' going to win the tournament outright. But if he at least gets to the quarters, I can start betting against him and it's a win win situation for me. His odds to win it all were 100-1. BARGAIN. Dude is playing really well.

Rafa is the odds on favorite at 5-7. I understand why Rafa is at less than even odds, but I find it annoying. I think he si going to win, but I'm not taking odds with such a measly payout.

Djoker is at 2-1
And from there, we see a lot of separation. Federer is 7-1. Delpo 12-1. And that's all I remember of the top of my head.
 
#2
#2
It's not hard to agree with those picks. Naturally, Ralph is the favorite unless he sustains a folding chair injury to his knee prior to or during the FO. Clay is his surface. In fact, of the record 21 Masters shields Rafa owns, 15 have been on clay. He has something like 49 career singles titles and 36 of those have come on clay.

I wish I could say with some confidence that this is Djokovic's year to take the FO, but it just isn't. 2011 was not a fluke year, but you can't expect someone to continue playing at that level year after year. That being said, Djoker is still the number one player in the world and is my favorite for at least one more slam this year (right after the players pull out of Paris).

I also really believe that Federer is playing some outstanding tennis and is capable of winning a slam beginning with Wimbledon, or, Olympic gold. I believe he'll have a good showing in Paris but he is not going to get past Djoker and Nadal, and probably neither if he gets far enough to meet one.

The draw itself will only be interesting to me to see which side Federer falls into. Last week, there was some potential for RF to go in as the 2 seed and possibly avoid a potential back-to-back matchup against Nadal and Djoker. As the 3 seed, all that matters is in which order he will have to face Nadal and Djoker under a Federer best-case-scenario. Ah, for us tennis nerds, it's at least something to talk about.

Del Potro just isn't the same player he was in 2009 when he won the US Open. It's a tragedy that wrist surgery kept him out of the game for most of 2010. I really like his game and hope he cant get back to pre-injury level soon. I don't see him doing much in Paris.

Berdych and Ferrer are playing some solid tennis and have the physical game to beat anyone on this surface. However, they will be sent packing because of their lack of mental toughness. It must be a terrible thing to have such high physical skills only to be let down time and again on the mental side of the game.

I love the Monaco upset pick. I actually had him in the back of my mind before reading this post. I saw Monaco humiliate Ralph Nadal on a hardcourt in Cincinnati a few years back. It's crazy he hasn't done more in his career. Of course, depending on the draw, Monaco is unlikely to get further than the QFs.

Other than the obvious, I don't see anyone making a splash at Roland Garros in 2012. We'll see.
 
#3
#3
Andy Murray was playing really well for a stretch, and then all of a sudden he started playing really really poorly. My only conclusion is that he has an injury that is worse than he is letting on.

Milos Raonic is a possible sleeper, but I'm still having trouble making myself believe that this could actually happen. I'll wait until the draw comes out to make a prediction on Raonic.

I think John Isner could have a very nice tournament. He is a guy that Rafa or Djoker probably would like to avoid having to play. He is certainly capable of pulling off a major upset, but I question his ability to keep his game at that kind of level in the best-of-five set context. The extra stanza gives his opponent more opportunities to expose his lack of lateral quickness and, in the process, shake his confidence
 
#4
#4
I would like to see someone other than the big three win this slam. If I recall, I read recently that Federer, Nadal, and Djoker have taken 27 out of the past 29 grand slams titles, and 31 out of the past 35. That is simply astounding.

Did Isner get hurt in Madrid or Rome or Monte Carlo? I can't remember, but know he made an uncharacteristic early exit at one of those tournaments.

Murray apparently has a back injury that has hampered him as well. He made the right move hiring Lendl as his coach, but it looks like the injury is holding him back.

After two months of watching lousy internet streams of these clay court tournaments, I am stoked to watch a little RG in HD. Love the red clay in HD.
 
#5
#5
Good gravy. The draw is out. Federer has an impossible draw. Possible matchups with Nalbandian inR2; Roddick in R3; Delpo or Berdych in QF; and Djoker jn SF. Nadal waiting in final.
 
#6
#6
DyronNix said:
I would like to see someone other than the big three win this slam. If I recall, I read recently that Federer, Nadal, and Djoker have taken 27 out of the past 29 grand slams titles, and 31 out of the past 35. That is simply astounding.

Did Isner get hurt in Madrid or Rome or Monte Carlo? I can't remember, but know he made an uncharacteristic early exit at one of those tournaments.

Murray apparently has a back injury that has hampered him as well. He made the right move hiring Lendl as his coach, but it looks like the injury is holding him back.

After two months of watching lousy internet streams of these clay court tournaments, I am stoked to watch a little RG in HD. Love the red clay in HD.
Click to expand...

I don't think it's happening this tournament.

I think Andy Murray could win the US Open, but I don't think he can win the FO this year.

The Big Three have one everyone since Safin in the 2005 Aussie except for Delpo at the US Open.

2012 Australian Open Novak Djokovic Rafael Nadal
2011 U.S. Open Novak Djokovic Rafael Nadal
2011 Wimbledon Novak Djokovic Rafael Nadal
2011 French Open Rafael Nadal Roger Federer
2011 Australian Open Novak Djokovic Andy Murray
2010 U.S. Open Rafael Nadal Novak Djokovic
2010 Wimbledon Rafael Nadal Tomas Berdych
2010 French Open Rafael Nadal Robin Soderling
2010 Australian Open Roger Federer Andy Murray
2009 U.S. Open Juan Martin del Potro Roger Federer
2009 Wimbledon Roger Federer Andy Roddick
2009 French Open Roger Federer Robin Soderling
2009 Australian Open Rafael Nadal Roger Federer
2008 U.S. Open Roger Federer Andy Murray
2008 Wimbledon Rafael Nadal Roger Federer
2008 French Open Rafael Nadal Roger Federer
2008 Australian Open Novak Djokovic Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
2007 U.S. Open Roger Federer Novak Djokovic
2007 Wimbledon Roger Federer Rafael Nadal
2007 French Open Rafael Nadal Roger Federer
2007 Australian Open Roger Federer Fernando Gonzalez
2006 U.S. Open Roger Federer Andy Roddick
2006 Wimbledon Roger Federer Rafael Nadal
2006 French Open Rafael Nadal Roger Federer
2006 Australian Open Roger Federer Marcos Baghdatis
2005 U.S. Open Roger Federer Andre Agassi
2005 Wimbledon Roger Federer Andy Roddick
2005 French Open Rafael Nadal Mariano Puerta
 
#8
#8
Was planning on meeting my fiancée in Paris until I looked at hotel rooms. Holy **** they were expensive. Didn't realize the French open was that week
 
#9
#9
Raonic in the bottom half would meet Rafa in the quarters if he can get past Monaco, I believe, if both get there. Could be a good match, but you gotta believe Rafa will take it. I do think Raonic has star potential, but he still needs more work.
 
#10
#10
If anyone gets in the tennis channel raquet bracket, the picks are wicked difficult. Very tough one to figure out. Best just to pick your top guys, go with them and fill in the rest as best you can.
 
#11
#11
I don't think Raonic has ever played Nadal well even on hard courts. Nadal will not face a competitive match until the semis v. Ferrer most likely. Barring injury Nadal will be the freshest he's ever been in a slam final.
 
#12
#12
MphsBlues said:
Raonic in the bottom half would meet Rafa in the quarters if he can get past Monaco, I believe, if both get there. Could be a good match, but you gotta believe Rafa will take it. I do think Raonic has star potential, but he still needs more work.
Click to expand...

Raonic is legit.
 
#13
#13
DyronNix said:
I don't think Raonic has ever played Nadal well even on hard courts. Nadal will not face a competitive match until the semis v. Ferrer most likely. Barring injury Nadal will be the freshest he's ever been in a slam final.
Click to expand...

Yeah, Ferrer can't beat a healthy Nadal. He's like the perfect warm-up.
 
#14
#14
kidbourbon said:
Roland Garros is upon us. They are playing the qualy draws right now and the main action starts in two days, I believe.

I'm going to write a more detailed analysis a bit later on, but I wanted to go ahead and get the thread started.

Usually when we're talking about the French Open, the question isn't whether Rafa will win it, but how much carnage will he leave in his wake of domination. This year, I think the question is very simple:

Rafa or Djokovic -- who ya got?

This isn't to say that other players -- Federer, Delpo, Ferrer, Berdych, hell even Juan Monaco -- aren't playing great tennis right now. But Rafa and Djoker have pretty clearly established that they are the top stratosphere in the game of men's tennis. Federer looks like he is in that conversation in the early rounds, and people get fooled. I don't get fooled. It's Rafa, it's Novak, or it's a serious injury to one or both of them. Three options, and three options only, my friends.

On the women's side, I am going to pay attention a little bit this year, but just to pay attention to Serena. Serena is going to win the French Open, and you can take that to the bank. Nobody else has a chance. It is Serena's for the taking, and she will take it.

If you have no contrary rooting interest, please do root for Juan Monaco. I win nearly $3,000 if he wins the tournament outright. Of course, he definitely isnt' going to win the tournament outright. But if he at least gets to the quarters, I can start betting against him and it's a win win situation for me. His odds to win it all were 100-1. BARGAIN. Dude is playing really well.

Rafa is the odds on favorite at 5-7. I understand why Rafa is at less than even odds, but I find it annoying. I think he si going to win, but I'm not taking odds with such a measly payout.

Djoker is at 2-1
And from there, we see a lot of separation. Federer is 7-1. Delpo 12-1. And that's all I remember of the top of my head.
Click to expand...

My wife, who is encylopedic when it comes to tennis, says Rafa isn't going to win. Personally, I think you're right, but I had to put him losing in the final. My bracket is f***ed to begin with...

As for the ones I'm looking to see, I hope to see Brian Baker, who has had four major surgeries in the last six years, play. He is playing great, but will likely go out to Wawrinka in the third round. Always my sentimental favorite, the Santoro-esque Dolgopolov stands to make a good run. He hits a brick wall when he runs into Ferrer, though.

As for the women's side, I believe you are right. However, I would say that Maria has the ability to win this thing, Serena or no. She is playing really well right now, has reached the semis twice here, so she is ok on clay but has less pressure on herself because no one expects her to win it. I would watch out for her. Wouldn't totally count out Stosur, either.

Also on the women's side, it will be fun to watch the German contingent. I wouldn't be too surprised if one of them pulled off some large upsets. I think Barthel is a future star, but she has Na Li in the third round. Not good for either - worse for Barthel.
Cibulkova, not a German, is a dark horse.
 
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#17
#17
Kuznetsov making Jo-Willie look silly in the early going. He'll probably fold like a bad poker hand, but kid looks good for a qualifier.
 
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#19
#19
What's going on with Roddick? He's down two sets to Mahut in the opening round. Seems like a bunch of seeds are playing shaky first round matches. I guess that's the French Open for you.
 
#20
#20
DyronNix said:
What's going on with Roddick? He's down two sets to Mahut in the opening round. Seems like a bunch of seeds are playing shaky first round matches. I guess that's the French Open for you.
Click to expand...

Mahut may take another American 11 hours :) Roddick showing some signs of life now, but I have very little confidence in him. I have him getting to the third round - probably too generous.
 
#21
#21
Kevin Anderson is tied w/ Machado 6-6 in the 5th. What is ESPN showing? A Delpo match that finished hours ago. I'm not one to trash ESPN, but c'mon.
 
#22
#22
My bad. I'm watching the tennis channel. They're the dummies. ESPN doesn't have the tennis on right now.
 
#25
#25
Interesting matches tomorrow:

Querrey vs. Tipsarevic (not sure if Sam actually has a chance here).

Young vs. Dmitrov (Donal Young is an enigma).

Blake vs. Youzhny

Baghdatis vs. Chela (come on, baggy. get your game together).

Nadal vs. Bolelli (just kidding)

I didn't mean to list mostly Americans, but they did seem like some of the more reasonably competitive matches. Though I actually Youzhny will give Blake a pretty good ass whupping.
 
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