'24 TN OT Jesse Perry (Tennessee)

#102
#102
BigOrangeTrain said:
Lol. They miss all the time. Try again.
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Really? How so? You are absolutely CERTAIN and have argue with me for... how long?... that you cannot win without "top 5 classes". So how are they wrong? I've shown you how but you reject logic and facts.
 
#103
#103
EdEcEko77 said:
I don’t even know who that is. But there are such things as anomalies. He’s probably one. Which means, for every Cody mauchs there’s countless project lineman who never see the field.

Since you’re giving assignments - let me give you one: explain to me why Elerbe gets such blind trust? Outside of turning around Darnell Wright - what lineman has he “developed?” Why isnt William Parker’s name even mentioned by anyone, for example?
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I don’t know the numbers off the top of my head…but not long ago this exact topic came up and someone (similar to yourself) was asserting that the high 4* and 5* OLs were the ones getting drafted and playing at the highest levels in the NFL…

@sjt18 came into that thread and quoted the numbers I’m talking about…maybe he’ll pop in here and quote those numbers again…but long story short, players like the one you “don’t even know” are far from anomalies…in fact they are more of the rule than the exception
 
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#105
#105
EdEcEko77 said:
Thing is… when Butch was here we all boomed these types of commitments.

Then when Butch left, we all were glad we were done taking 260lb tackle projects.

And now we’re back to acting excited about taking a 260lb tackle.

If you’re just gonna be a cheerleader, so be it.

Considering the offensive line prospects were in on - Calhoun, Easley, Westphal, Calloway, etc - it makes little sense to take this commitment now.
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Thing is…we just went 11-2 with reduced scholarships. Yea, they’ve proven they know what they are doing.
 
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#106
#106
These type of developmental guys are what help you build experienced depth on the o-line. He'll be ready to contribute as a redshirt sophomore, unless he surprises everyone. O-line is so dependent on physical development and you're dealing with guys who likely didn't have a good strength and conditioning program in high school. I think rankings are less of an indicator of future success for o-linemen compared to other positions.
 
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#108
#108
thunder5 said:
I don’t know the numbers off the top of my head…but not long ago this exact topic came up and someone (similar to yourself) was asserting that the high 4* and 5* OLs were the ones getting drafted and playing at the highest levels in the NFL…

@sjt18 came into that thread and quoted the numbers I’m talking about…maybe he’ll pop in here and quote those numbers again…but long story short, players like the one you “don’t even know” are far from anomalies…in fact they are more of the rule than the exception
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I’d be interested in seeing that. I’ll submit that OL is the hardest position to predict.

But without seeing what you’re referring to, I’d counter that it’s a numbers game. In that they’re 133 FBS schools. Each of those FBS schools has what - an average of 10 or so OLineman?

Meanwhile, there are only about 32 five stars and ~300 four stars each year.

So by a sheer numbers perspective, I’d expect there to be significantly more former three star NFL lineman than former blue chip.

But if we want an elite offensive line, we’re going to need elite lineman. Our best lineman recently have been Trey Smith, Cade Mays, and Darnell Washington. That isn’t a coincidence.

Georgia and Alabama have elite lines and always have guys drafted. That’s who we’re going yo be competing with.
 
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#110
#110
EdEcEko77 said:
I’d be interested in seeing that. I’ll submit that OL is the hardest position to predict.

But without seeing what you’re referring to, I’d counter that it’s a numbers game. In that they’re 133 FBS schools. Each of those FBS schools has what - an average of 10 or so OLineman?

Meanwhile, there are only about 32 five stars and ~300 four stars each year.

So by a sheer numbers perspective, I’d expect there to be significantly more former three star NFL lineman than former blue chip.

But if we want an elite offensive line, we’re going to need elite lineman. Our best lineman recently have been Trey Smith, Cade Mays, and Darnell Washington. That isn’t a coincidence.

Georgia and Alabama have elite lines and always have guys drafted. That’s who we’re going yo be competing with.
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That was the gist of it…one, it’s the hardest position to predict and two, the number of 5*’s may be lower but the % that make it is higher…so in a way, you can make a decent argument either way to be honest…

I’m like you that I like seeing higher ratings on our OL prospects…as hard as it may be to predict I still think it’s a decent enough metric…

I also put a lot…and I mean a lot…of stock in offer lists…honestly, way more than I put in ratings…there’s no doubt in my mind the coaches are more qualified than the people running these websites
 
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#111
#111
thunder5 said:
I also put a lot…and I mean a lot…of stock in offer lists…honestly, way more than I put in ratings…there’s no doubt in my mind the coaches are more qualified than the people running these websites
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Same. Rankings are nice because I’m a numbers guy and I have this incessant desire to be ranked higher than uscjr, uf, uk, mizzou etc in thr rankings. And since you can’t really judge a recruiting class honestly until 2-3 years after the cycle - the numbers (stars/composite) gives immediate gratification of who had a “better” class.

But like you, I rely more on offer lists. Specifically SEC/Big10 offers for OL. I want to be beating out who our rivals or the best teams in the country want for a player - more than anything.

Rankings without the offers = a paper four star aka Butch recruit.

Meh rankings without the offers is underwhelming.

That is all.
 
#114
#114
Boom!
iu
 
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#119
#119
thunder5 said:
I don’t know the numbers off the top of my head…but not long ago this exact topic came up and someone (similar to yourself) was asserting that the high 4* and 5* OLs were the ones getting drafted and playing at the highest levels in the NFL…

@sjt18 came into that thread and quoted the numbers I’m talking about…maybe he’ll pop in here and quote those numbers again…but long story short, players like the one you “don’t even know” are far from anomalies…in fact they are more of the rule than the exception
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Yes. I just used the top 5 OGs and top 5 OTs from the last draft. I think there were 3 total 5* in that group. That's actually not terrible recognition of talent. They probably award 8-10 OL's 5* in a given year. Where they miss badly is that only one 4* was in that group. Three or maybe 4 had no stars. The rest were 3*.

For the 30 +/- players given 5*, most will be very good players. All will have top shelf talent. After that, the accuracy for 4* vs 3* declines pretty significantly. There are lots of elite talents in each recruiting class that get 3* or less.
 
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#120
#120
For whatever it might be worth, it seems that Heupel and staff now feel they have the depth to have an OL building program. There are a few 5* guys who are just freak OL talents that require a little coaching and "poof"... they're great.

The other way you have a great OL is that you find guys with the right mental make up with a frame you can build on. They seem to be settling into that with the players they signed last year and then this guy.
 
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#121
#121
EdEcEko77 said:
I don’t even know who that is. But there are such things as anomalies. He’s probably one. Which means, for every Cody mauchs there’s countless project lineman who never see the field.
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OLs are very hard for the recruiting sites to evaluate well. You can measure some things. They can take note of who is recruiting who. However OLs are more often built than signed. You sign someone with the right mindset and then you build them in the S&C program.

Here's what I wrote in another thread:

sjt18 said:
Ekwonu was the top OT taken last year- 3*. Neal and Cross were 2nd and 3rd- 5*. Trevor Penning was 4th- 0*. Tyler Smith of Tulsa was 5th- 3*.

Kenyon Green was the top OG- 5*. Zion Johnson was 2nd- 0*. Cole Strange a Knoxville native was 3rd- 3*. Luke Goedeke was 4th- 0*. Ingram was 5th- 4*.
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Since you’re giving assignments - let me give you one: explain to me why Elerbe gets such blind trust? Outside of turning around Darnell Wright - what lineman has he “developed?” Why isnt William Parker’s name even mentioned by anyone, for example?
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It is ironic that you place blind faith in recruiting site journalists whose jobs are NOT threatened by them being wrong over 80% of the time but take shots at someone with faith in a guy with a pretty decent resume and who gets fired if he doesn't produce. You must not think much of Heupel either... since he chose Ellerbe and routinely ignores the recruiting sites to take commitments.
 
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#122
#122
sjt18 said:
It is ironic that you place blind faith in recruiting site journalists whose jobs are NOT threatened by them being wrong over 80% of the time but take shots at someone with faith in a guy with a pretty decent resume and who gets fired if he doesn't produce. You must not think much of Heupel either... since he chose Ellerbe and routinely ignores the recruiting sites to take commitments.
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You’re cherry picking what I’ve said in this thread. I’ve said I care more about offer lists and tbh I don’t get the blind faith in Elerbe at this point. It’s all in this thread.
 
#123
#123
EdEcEko77 said:
You’re cherry picking what I’ve said in this thread. I’ve said I care more about offer lists and tbh I don’t get the blind faith in Elerbe at this point. It’s all in this thread.
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Not cherry picking since you very literally said it.

Offer lists mean that other programs "like" a recruit or have discovered him. UT has a process if it hasn't changed since several years back. They have a recruiting consulting firm that scours a recruits history and film. They do backgrounds on them and sometimes their families. They perform detailed evaluations based on parameters provided by the coach. The coaches then take the short list and whittle it down to their "board".

We don't know where this kid was on their board and will never know how the staff scored him. What we do know is that the staff gave him a committable offer more than 6 months before early signing day while they still have 4/5* guys visiting and listening. They must think he's good... and unlike you... they don't seem to need validation from anyone else.
 
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