'24 TN OT Jesse Perry (Tennessee)

[LouderVol]

Yes. I just used the top 5 OGs and top 5 OTs from the last draft. I think there were 3 total 5* in that group. That's actually not terrible recognition of talent. They probably award 8-10 OL's 5* in a given year. Where they miss badly is that only one 4* was in that group. Three or maybe 4 had no stars. The rest were 3*.

For the 30 +/- players given 5*, most will be very good players. All will have top shelf talent. After that, the accuracy for 4* vs 3* declines pretty significantly. There are lots of elite talents in each recruiting class that get 3* or less.

not necessarily arguing your point about their overall accuracy I just don't think that NFL draft status is reasonably what the high school recruiting rankings should be judged off of. I would want to look at performance in college.

Not everyone's game transfers from one level to the other. for instance:

I would take Tim Tebow more times than not in the college game, even as my number 1. he was ranked pretty high coming out of high school, and at the college level he ABSOLUTELY lived up to that ranking, so in that case the recruiting services nailed it. However, I wouldn't have him on my 53 man roster in the NFL, and if you apply that same standard of higher high school ranking to NFL performance, their accuracy is crap. but he was drafted really high, so they got it right? Emmanuel Moseley is kinda the opposite. Low ranked coming out of high school, not a lot of production at the college level so in that case they got it right, turns into an NFL star, so in that case they got it wrong. But if you look at the draft he went undrafted so the recruiting services got it right?

 

[volbeast33]

I don’t even know who that is. But there are such things as anomalies. He’s probably one. Which means, for every Cody mauchs there’s countless project lineman who never see the field.

Since you’re giving assignments - let me give you one: explain to me why Elerbe gets such blind trust? Outside of turning around Darnell Wright - what lineman has he “developed?” Why isnt William Parker’s name even mentioned by anyone, for example?

My confidence in Elerbe comes from the fact that this is the best our offensive line has looked in years… I have 100% confidence in this staff to get what they need….There are a few things that you are missing from this recruitment.

1. He plays at a small private Christian school( not as well known of a player)
2. Made huge gains in fairly short amount of time.
3. We took his commitment very early which means we really like his skill set.
4. The ones you worry about are the ones that we get desperate and take at the end of recruiting cycle.

Either way…. No excuses,,,, just win.

 

[scienceteaching_vol]

not necessarily arguing your point about their overall accuracy I just don't think that NFL draft status is reasonably what the high school recruiting rankings should be judged off of. I would want to look at performance in college.

Not everyone's game transfers from one level to the other. for instance:

I would take Tim Tebow more times than not in the college game, even as my number 1. he was ranked pretty high coming out of high school, and at the college level he ABSOLUTELY lived up to that ranking, so in that case the recruiting services nailed it. However, I wouldn't have him on my 53 man roster in the NFL, and if you apply that same standard of higher high school ranking to NFL performance, their accuracy is crap. but he was drafted really high, so they got it right? Emmanuel Moseley is kinda the opposite. Low ranked coming out of high school, not a lot of production at the college level so in that case they got it right, turns into an NFL star, so in that case they got it wrong. But if you look at the draft he went undrafted so the recruiting services got it right?

I think you're whole response can be boiled down to fit. Fit for the system and fit for the overall culture of the program.

Sounds like measurables meets hard working drive with this recruit. Perfect for oline. I haven't seen any reason to doubt our coaches yet.

 

[miket4god]

I’d be interested in seeing that. I’ll submit that OL is the hardest position to predict.

But without seeing what you’re referring to, I’d counter that it’s a numbers game. In that they’re 133 FBS schools. Each of those FBS schools has what - an average of 10 or so OLineman?

Meanwhile, there are only about 32 five stars and ~300 four stars each year.

So by a sheer numbers perspective, I’d expect there to be significantly more former three star NFL lineman than former blue chip.

But if we want an elite offensive line, we’re going to need elite lineman. Our best lineman recently have been Trey Smith, Cade Mays, and Darnell Washington. That isn’t a coincidence.

Georgia and Alabama have elite lines and always have guys drafted. That’s who we’re going yo be competing with.

I'm sure that isn't a coincidence either.

 

[barrylee]

BM

 

[VolGee4]

Glen Elerbe had a very good reputation as an OL coach before UT. Just do the research.

I’ve posted for years that many of the top OT in the NFL in the last 15 years were undersized going into college, and some even played different positions. The key was their athleticism. They then add weight and maintain their athleticism. The list is pretty lengthy and starts with Lane Johnson and David Bakhtiari.

 

[TN-POSSUM]

V
O
L

 

[Mccage]

Thing is… when Butch was here we all boomed these types of commitments.

Then when Butch left, we all were glad we were done taking 260lb tackle projects.

And now we’re back to acting excited about taking a 260lb tackle.

If you’re just gonna be a cheerleader, so be it.

Considering the offensive line prospects were in on - Calhoun, Easley, Westphal, Calloway, etc - it makes little sense to take this commitment now.

His 275...I guess your.narrative bumped him 15 lbs huh?

 

[sjt18]

not necessarily arguing your point about their overall accuracy I just don't think that NFL draft status is reasonably what the high school recruiting rankings should be judged off of. I would want to look at performance in college.

I don't disagree. I would like that much better too. However there's just no way to make that apples to apples comparison. Someone mentioned Mauch from NDSU earlier. He's going to be drafted early based on what NFL scouts think of him. But how can we compare a guy who plays FCS competition with say a similar player from Vandy?

May be even worse when it comes to skill players and defenders. The level of competition is a huge factor in their stats and how they "look".

Not everyone's game transfers from one level to the other. for instance:

I would take Tim Tebow more times than not in the college game, even as my number 1. he was ranked pretty high coming out of high school, and at the college level he ABSOLUTELY lived up to that ranking, so in that case the recruiting services nailed it. However, I wouldn't have him on my 53 man roster in the NFL, and if you apply that same standard of higher high school ranking to NFL performance, their accuracy is crap. but he was drafted really high, so they got it right? Emmanuel Moseley is kinda the opposite. Low ranked coming out of high school, not a lot of production at the college level so in that case they got it right, turns into an NFL star, so in that case they got it wrong. But if you look at the draft he went undrafted so the recruiting services got it right?

Again, I agree but the recruiting sites pretty much whiffed on Moseley in part because they don't have a means for correctly evaluating a kid like him. How do you guess that a HS QB is going to transition that naturally to CB?

We take the recruiting sites as at least somewhat credible based on their "general" reliability. That's what I would say about the usefulness of the draft in validating the recruiting rankings. Its value is in producing "exceptions" which prevent the recruit rankings from being a "rule".

 

[jakez4ut]

Let's Go!

 

[Jackcrevol]

This one wasnt much of a question....but glad he's a Vol.

Happy for the kid, GBO.

 

[sjt18]

I’d be interested in seeing that. I’ll submit that OL is the hardest position to predict.

I shared it below.

But without seeing what you’re referring to, I’d counter that it’s a numbers game. In that they’re 133 FBS schools. Each of those FBS schools has what - an average of 10 or so OLineman?

Meanwhile, there are only about 32 five stars and ~300 four stars each year.

That's fairly close on the 4/5* numbers. And that's part of the "scam". If they were accurate then they wouldn't have to limit the number of 5* ratings they award. One year there might be 20 5* players and the next there might be 50. It would be a true qualitative evaluation. It isn't. They arbitrarily limit that number knowing that there are probably at least 3 or 4 times as many players worthy of 5* as get them. But if they just try to hit 30 or so out of a pool of say 120... they "look" accurate.

Around 60% of 5* will be drafted eventually. About 20% of 4* will be drafted. I think it was around 3-5% of 3*. If they were as accurate as some believe practically every player in the draft would be a 4/5* guy. Instead, around 35-40% are.

So by a sheer numbers perspective, I’d expect there to be significantly more former three star NFL lineman than former blue chip.

And by the exact same logic... you can build a very talented, elite roster if you can find the 3* that have 4/5* talent and develop them. Right?

But if we want an elite offensive line, we’re going to need elite lineman. Our best lineman recently have been Trey Smith, Cade Mays, and Darnell Washington. That isn’t a coincidence.

Georgia and Alabama have elite lines and always have guys drafted. That’s who we’re going yo be competing with.

You were almost there... then this. Among the top five OG's and OT's taken in last year's draft, three got zero stars... and three got 5*. So if UT can get those 0* players with that kind of talent... are they getting "elite linemen"? Would they be better off with those three 3* guys than just the one 4* guy?

You are assuming a level of accuracy and completeness on the part of the recruiting sites that the facts simply don't support.

 

[HoleInTheRoof]

Per Callahan, he may get a look at center.

 

[vols 30]

Perry will be the Dark Horse of the class. Don't worry about stars. He will roar and there will be firework(s)

 

[rgvol]

Yes sir!

 

[OakdaleVol]

Thing is… when Butch was here we all boomed these types of commitments.

Then when Butch left, we all were glad we were done taking 260lb tackle projects.

And now we’re back to acting excited about taking a 260lb tackle.

If you’re just gonna be a cheerleader, so be it.

Considering the offensive line prospects were in on - Calhoun, Easley, Westphal, Calloway, etc - it makes little sense to take this commitment now.

 

[Adam Sandler]

Instate Boom!

 

[Vols4us]

Heup, Ellarbee and staff delivered the #1 O that beat Bama, Clemson and LSU using primarily the previous failed, fired coaching staff's players - and we have posters questioning their targeted recruits.

smh....

 

[LittleVol]

Heup, Ellarbee and staff delivered the #1 O that beat Bama, Clemson and LSU using primarily the previous failed, fired coaching staff's players - and we have posters questioning their targeted recruits.

smh....

Nothing wrong with questioning coaches.

But they're not questioning coaches directly.
They are just dissatisfied because he's a 3 star with questionable offers.
They have not a clue what to look for in a prospect...

 

[thunder5]

You’re cherry picking what I’ve said in this thread. I’ve said I care more about offer lists and tbh I don’t get the blind faith in Elerbe at this point. It’s all in this thread.

JMO…but when it comes to Elarbee I think it’s two things…

One, most seem to agree that any P5 OL coach is more capable of properly evaluating OL talent than the “experts” on these websites…

Two, the previous two OL coaches were atrocious…Elarbee shows up and the results of the first two years say he is (at the very least) competent…as sad as it is that is a substantial improvement over the last two staffs…so now this board is fiercely loyal to him…

Again…JMO…but I think that makes up about 98% of the reasoning

 

[LittleVol]

I want the 5 star OT from Mater Dei (Baker).

But I can certainly see why they took this kids commitment.
Wide shoulders and long arms. Good wide stance and he gets his butt down.

Plays through the whistle. It will take him till RS So year to contribute but he's almost prototype OT.

No complaints from me.
Solid prospect. Oline is the hardest to gauge.

 

[allvolrecruiting]

I’d be interested in seeing that. I’ll submit that OL is the hardest position to predict.

But without seeing what you’re referring to, I’d counter that it’s a numbers game. In that they’re 133 FBS schools. Each of those FBS schools has what - an average of 10 or so OLineman?

Meanwhile, there are only about 32 five stars and ~300 four stars each year.

So by a sheer numbers perspective, I’d expect there to be significantly more former three star NFL lineman than former blue chip.

But if we want an elite offensive line, we’re going to need elite lineman. Our best lineman recently have been Trey Smith, Cade Mays, and Darnell Washington. That isn’t a coincidence.

Georgia and Alabama have elite lines and always have guys drafted. That’s who we’re going yo be competing with.

Alabama hasn't had an elite OL for a couple years but good points

 

[Jackcrevol]

Perry will be the Dark Horse of the class. Don't worry about stars. He will roar and there will be firework(s)

i think the bigger question is what happens if numbers are reduced, and we have four higher rated guys?

 

[Jackcrevol]

Nothing wrong with questioning coaches.

But they're not questioning coaches directly.
They are just dissatisfied because he's a 3 star with questionable offers.
They have not a clue what to look for in a prospect...

not a clue. couldnt even tell you the name of a block. that is, i couldnt.

 

[Enki_Amenra]