TN vs OU preview on CFN.com

#26
#26
Why, for the life of me, anyone would defend that toothless elephant hick school to the south, is beyond me. They lost. They shouldn't have played in the NC and they proved it. NC don't lose due to stupid plays at the end of games against their biggest rivals, and then go get trounced in their bowl game, I don't care what sabby-short-legs says.
 
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#27
#27
salutethehill said:
Why, for the life of me, anyone would defend that toothless elephant hick school to the south, is beyond me. They lost. They shouldn't have played in the NC and they proved it. NC don't lose due to stupid plays at the end of games against their biggest rivals, and then go get trounced in their bowl game.
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Hmmm, didn't UT do that a few years back in the early 2000s? I seem to remember some embarrassing bowl losses where UT showed up completely disinterested apparently believing that they should have been in a better bowl, or the national championship.
 
#28
#28
daj2576 said:
Hmmm, didn't UT do that a few years back in the early 2000s? I seem to remember some embarrassing bowl losses where UT showed up completely disinterested apparently believing that they should have been in a better bowl, or the national championship.
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and?
 
#32
#32
JohnD13 said:
ZERO chance...ZERO. Now next year...that's a different story.
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Based on the Vegas odds and a couple assumptions, my odds for a Tennessee victory are

14.3%

ESPN.com predicts the odds for a Tennessee victory are

12.7%
Tennessee 2014 FPI - Volunteers - ESPN

so I think saying "ZERO chance" is being a negavol.

daj, what do you think, this is up your alley. I did an integer integration using the the Vegas spread and over/under, then I used a standard deviation of 10 for the Vols (84% chance Vols score 7 to 27, 17 +/- 10) and a standard deviation of 17 for the Sooners (84% chance they score between 20.5 and 54.5, 37.5 +/- 17).
 
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#34
#34
Section KK said:
Based on the Vegas odds and a couple assumptions, my odds for a Tennessee victory are

14.3%

ESPN.com predicts the odds for a Tennessee victory are

12.7%
Tennessee 2014 FPI - Volunteers - ESPN

so I think saying ZERO chance is being a negavol.

daj, what do you think, this is up your alley. I did an integer integration using the the Vegas spread and over/under, then I used a standard deviation of 10 for the Vols (84% chance Vols score 7 to 27, 17 +/- 10) and a standard deviation of 17 for the Sooners (84% chance they score between 20.5 and 54.5, 37.5 +/- 17).
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I am going to stay away from making predictions on this one.

In a way we are in some uncharted territory. From where I sit, home field advantage is key here. Some numbers show that home teams win about 55% of all games played.

The problem is that the data to review similar situations is very small. In fact, I could only quickly find two times, both in 2013, where two teams with identical four year recruiting averages played. One was UT v. Oregon, one was OU vs. ND. Home teams were 1-1, and both losers were dominated on the field.

I think the Vegas spread is likely wrong, but I am not confident in that assessment. Neither a blow out UT loss, or a close competitive game would surprise me at this point. In that way, at least to me, this might be the most interesting game on Tennessee's schedule. I am certain that Tennessee has more than a 0% chance to win this game. As a floor, I would say that UT has a 30% chance to win, perhaps as much as a 45% chance. That doesn't mean that the score will reflect that. Didn't ESPN also show that we only had a 47% chance to beat USU? I said I would stay away from this match-up, so I am really just thinking by typing, not making predictions.

Insofar as using Vegas as a guide, I am not sure that using the spread is a great indicator alone. If you use the spread to presume that Vegas says that the team with the (-) will win, I believe you will find that they are correct about 80% of the time. My reading suggests that Vegas also manipulates the line to pad those betting on home favorites, so as a general rule (if what I have read is correct) the spread will typically over-favor the home team by at least a point if not more. Who knows? UT is currently 1-1 ATS. Bottom line, Vegas' favorites generally win, but the spread itself is a more fluid and less capable indicator of actual score.

Just ignore the last two paragraphs. Again, I am thinking aloud, so to speak.

I will say that there is a perception of OU from their bowl game that is totally disconnected from reality. The bowl game has absolutely zero predictive effect on this game. Games are independent of each other, especially games separated by almost 9 months.
 
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#36
#36
50246-so-youre-saying-theres-a-chanc-toCD.jpeg
 
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#37
#37
daj2576 said:
I am going to stay away from making predictions on this one.

In a way we are in some uncharted territory. From where I sit, home field advantage is key here. Some numbers show that home teams win about 55% of all games played.

The problem is that the data to review similar situations is very small. In fact, I could only quickly find two times, both in 2013, where two teams with identical four year recruiting averages played. One was UT v. Oregon, one was OU vs. ND. Home teams were 1-1, and both losers were dominated on the field.

I think the Vegas spread is likely wrong, but I am not confident in that assessment. Neither a blow out UT loss, or a close competitive game would surprise me at this point. In that way, at least to me, this might be the most interesting game on Tennessee's schedule. I am certain that Tennessee has more than a 0% chance to win this game. As a floor, I would say that UT has a 30% chance to win, perhaps as much as a 45% chance. That doesn't mean that the score will reflect that. Didn't ESPN also show that we only had a 47% chance to beat USU? I said I would stay away from this match-up, so I am really just thinking by typing, not making predictions.

Insofar as using Vegas as a guide, I am not sure that using the spread is a great indicator alone. If you use the spread to presume that Vegas says that the team with the (-) will win, I believe you will find that they are correct about 80% of the time. My reading suggests that Vegas also manipulates the line to pad those betting on home favorites, so as a general rule (if what I have read is correct) the spread will typically over-favor the home team by at least a point if not more. Who knows? UT is currently 1-1 ATS.

I will say that there is a perception of OU from their bowl game that is totally disconnected from reality. The bowl game has absolutely zero predictive effect on this game. Games are independent of each other, especially games separated by almost 9 months.
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Solid input, the percentages are based solely on Vegas odds and assumed standard deviations for points. Thus, if you disagree with those odds/assumptions, you'll disagree with the number I listed.

By the way, the same model predicts a 5% chance that we'll be shut out.
 
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#38
#38
Midnight Toker said:
That has to be a joke. Baylor, osu, texas, theyre all better than tennessee at this point. This will not be a cupcake but it is far from the toughest game of the year. Hell even wvu was within striking distance of the same bama team that beats you by 30 almost every year.



Not on the level of oregon? I can appreciate you having an opinion. But how can they put it down on alabama but they arent on oregon's level?
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First off, in the past 20 years the bama Tennessee series is at 10-10. So gtfo with that beat you by 30 almost every year BS.
Second, who cares what Oklahoma did to bama? Oklahoma also got beat by 16 to Texas. This isn't last year buddy.
With that said, Oklahoma wins big in this one. Our lines on both sides will get dominated, especially on the offensive side.
 
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#39
#39
VolBricks said:
"And if the Vols first two games were any indication, this might be the Sooners’ toughest game the rest of the year."

Yeah keep telling us how bad the SEC is Bob Stoops. The 8th best team in the SEC is your toughest game all year? Really?
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Bob Stoops made those comments two years ago. I don't think he meant them as forever. the fact that 5-6 SEC schools fired their coaches, shows that AD's of those schools at least agreed things could be better (including tenn. ).
 
#42
#42
daj2576 said:
If Oklahoma was in the SEC West, they would be between LSU and Texas A&M insofar as talent. That puts them fourth in the West and third in the east after Florida, and UGA, and tied with UT. I am just talking raw talent, not factoring in coaching. Tennessee was more talented than SCAR last year. Continues to be such this year, and has been throughout almost every year in history.

Back on point. Yes Oklahoma beat Bama. Somehow the media, and many fans, have set a standard whereby beating one team and ignoring performance against all the others is the standard. That was a good win for OU on a big stage but that can't be used as the sole measuring stick of either team last year, and it is even less meaningful looking at either team in 2014. I can't say it enough, beware using the transitive property. Remember UT beat SCAR who beat Mizzou therefore UT should beat Mizzou, right?

In my view OU is a favorite to win this game, but it isn't because of talent being drastically different. The difference in this game is home field advantage and experience. Those factors can lead to a lopsided score, when talent is similar. It will be interesting to see how it plays out.
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I normally agree with ya but you cant seriously tell me we were more talented than USC last year. we didnt have a single guy anywhere close to clowney, they had better running backs, better recievers, a much much better qb. maybe our oline was better but thats about it. we won that game with excellent coaching, discipline, supreme effort and a big play when we absolutely had to have one. the same will be true saturday. if we stay disciplined, no stupid penalties or casual give the ball up for free turnovers then we have a shot.
 
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#43
#43
Nothing before this 2014 season really matters very much at this time. Sorry, but they're gonna have to actually line up and play.

Ertel, I was not responding to you; I liked your post. :hi:
 
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#44
#44
VolBricks said:
"And if the Vols first two games were any indication, this might be the Sooners’ toughest game the rest of the year."

Yeah keep telling us how bad the SEC is Bob Stoops. The 8th best team in the SEC is your toughest game all year? Really?
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With all due respect, this writer obviously didn't bother looking at OU's schedule before he commented. Baylor is, by far, OU's toughest game this year.....and it's not debatable. Baylor is a fringe top 10 team. Oklahoma State, judging from their week 1 performance, will probably not be a push-over either. If I had to rank to rank OU's toughest games, it would be:
1) Baylor
2) @ West Virginia (we have struggled mightily against poor WV teams the last two years.
3) OSU/Tennessee/Kansas State (any of these)
 
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#45
#45
Midnight Toker said:
That has to be a joke. Baylor, osu, texas, theyre all better than tennessee at this point. This will not be a cupcake but it is far from the toughest game of the year. Hell even wvu was within striking distance of the same bama team that beats you by 30 almost every year.



Not on the level of oregon? I can appreciate you having an opinion. But how can they put it down on alabama but they arent on oregon's level?
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I would gladly trade schedules with you.
 
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#46
#46
Bob Stoops signed my mama's ass check at spring practice with a sharpie..
 

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#47
#47
VolBricks said:
"And if the Vols first two games were any indication, this might be the Sooners’ toughest game the rest of the year."

Yeah keep telling us how bad the SEC is Bob Stoops. The 8th best team in the SEC is your toughest game all year? Really?
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Let's make sure UT gives them a tough game first.

If they do... then the Vols are unlikely to be the 8th best team in the SEC. OU is good. They're very good.
 
#48
#48
Do I hope we win? Yes
Can we win? Yes
Do I think we will? No

I really want to see how our mental toughness has developed. I think it's possible, if we keep them on the ropes the whole game, and barely lose, we might start seeing "offical" opinoins changing.
 
#49
#49
coffeevol said:
Not on the level of oregon? I can appreciate you having an opinion. But how can they put it down on alabama but they arent on oregon's level?
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I know you guys don't like this but Bama didn't want to be there....it was a consolation game. When you have won national titles something like 3 of the last 5 years and with one game away you lose the chance...it is a let down.[/QUOTE]

You probably won't like this either but that's a load of crap. Bama tries every game and when they lose the word goes out that they just didn't care. BS. The same thing was going around when Utah handed them their ass in the bowl game. :hi:
 
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#50
#50
You probably won't like this either but that's a load of crap. Bama tries every game and when they lose the word goes out that they just didn't care. BS. The same thing was going around when Utah handed them their ass in the bowl game. :hi:
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I'm the other way, if it is a MNC game, the game is more exciting to the players. If you start the year expecting something great and you don't get that, it takes some air out of your game.
 
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