Tonight's First CFP Committee Reveal

#3
#3
WestTennesseeVol said:
Well there you go. Cinny needs everyone ahead of them to lose one more game.
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Unless Alabama goes 11-2 or Oregon loses they aren’t getting in. And that’s not even factoring in Okalahoma, who would definitely jump them if both teams are 13-0
 
#5
#5
Boston Vol said:
And they need to hope that a few teams behind them lose also. Basically they need all hell to break loose for them to make the playoffs.
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It’s the biggest FU to a team in the playoff’s history. They’re essentially ranked #8 because if OU and WF go through undefeated those two would get in before Cincy. They have to hope Bama, Wake, and Oregon lose. They have to hope Oklahoma and Michigan State loses twice. They have hope one of Michigan or Ohio State loses again.
 
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#6
#6
zjcvols said:
Unless Alabama goes 11-2 or Oregon loses they aren’t getting in. And that’s not even factoring in Okalahoma, who would definitely jump them if both teams are 13-0
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Very true as well. If Bama beats UGA in the championship game, that’s two seeds down. Plus one for Ohio State or Mich State if either one wins out. Then the other seed goes to Oregon or Oklahoma. Tough.
 
#8
#8
WestTennesseeVol said:
Very true as well. If Bama beats UGA in the championship game, that’s two seeds down. Plus one for Ohio State or Mich State if either one wins out. Then the other seed goes to Oregon or Oklahoma. Tough.
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Hell…I’m not sure the committee leaves out 11-2 Alabama over Cincy!
 
#9
#9
zjcvols said:
Hell…I’m not sure the committee leaves out 11-2 Alabama over Cincy!
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A two loss team in the CFB would be a disgrace, regardless of strength of schedule…I don’t want to believe they’d do it, but I can definitely see it happening. Might as well officially separate the P5 and G5 if that happens.
 
#10
#10
WestTennesseeVol said:
A two loss team in the CFB would be a disgrace, regardless of strength of schedule…I don’t want to believe they’d do it, but I can definitely see it happening. Might as well officially separate the P5 and G5 if that happens.
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Unless Auburn wins out and wins the SEC championship. Auburn's schedule is ridiculously difficult and the SEC champion is in. If that happens Auburn will have beaten Bama, UGA, A&M, Ole Miss, Arkansas, LSU in Baton Rogue and Mississippi State. Their losses would be another playoff team in UGA and @Penn State.
 
#12
#12
Just my humble opinion but I don't think Cincinnati can beat any of the 5 teams above them. Could they pull the upset against #1 Georgia or Alabama? Don't know but don't believe they can. Do they belong in the CFP if they're undefeated? Would they be one of the 4 BEST teams in collage football? I'm just not buying it. Put them in the SEC/B1G/BIG12 all year....would they be undefeated still? No. SOS carries a lot of weight when considering a playoff team. There are quite a few 1 loss teams more deserving to be in the playoffs IMHO.
 
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#15
#15
zjcvols said:
It’s the biggest FU to a team in the playoff’s history. They’re essentially ranked #8 because if OU and WF go through undefeated those two would get in before Cincy. They have to hope Bama, Wake, and Oregon lose. They have to hope Oklahoma and Michigan State loses twice. They have hope one of Michigan or Ohio State loses again.
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It is definitely the biggest FU. I love how the committee gives ND the benefit of the doubt in most years, but won’t give the same benefit to the team that beats them, at home.

Cincinnati’s win at Notre Dame is better than any win on Georgia or Alabama’s resume. I’m all for GA at #1. But I think Bama is overrated at #2. They have a loss to an unranked team, the FLA game came down to the wire, and we scared them for 3 quarters.

Am I wrong?
 
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#17
#17
rjd970 said:
It is definitely the biggest FU. I love how the committee gives ND the benefit of the doubt in most years, but won’t give the same benefit to the team that beats them, at home.

Cincinnati’s win at Notre Dame is better than any win on Georgia or Alabama’s resume. I’m all for GA at #1. But I think Bama is overrated at #2. They have a loss to an unranked team, the FLA game came down to the wire, and we scared them for 3 quarters.

Am I wrong?
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Just for debate sake ... Alabama wins out beating jawja in Atlanta. 2 loss Minnesota wins B1G championship. Oklahoma wins big 12 undefeated. Oregon wins out. Wake Forest wins ACC undefeated. Cincy goes undefeated. So both Alabama and Georgia are in (sucks but committee won't leave either out), who's in after that? Minnesota as B1G champs, Oklahoma as BIG12 champs, 1 loss mich st/Ohio state, Oregon as pac12 champs, wake Forest as ACC champs, or Cincy? This year is a good sample as to why CFP should expand to 8 teams.....which is a whole other conversation.....😁
 
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#19
#19
Looks like A&M is still fourth in the BIG XII South.

8. Oklahoma
11. Oklahoma State
12. Baylor
14. aggy

The more things change the more they remain the same. How much are they paying Jimbo again???
 
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#20
#20
BUBear said:
Looks like A&M is still fourth in the BIG XII South.

8. Oklahoma
11. Oklahoma State
12. Baylor
14. aggy

The more things change the more they remain the same. How much are they paying Jimbo again???
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By that logic Oklahoma should be counted with the SEC West.
 
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#21
#21
ATCVolinmn said:
Just my humble opinion but I don't think Cincinnati can beat any of the 5 teams above them. Could they pull the upset against #1 Georgia or Alabama? Don't know but don't believe they can. Do they belong in the CFP if they're undefeated? Would they be one of the 4 BEST teams in collage football? I'm just not buying it. Put them in the SEC/B1G/BIG12 all year....would they be undefeated still? No. SOS carries a lot of weight when considering a playoff team. There are quite a few 1 loss teams more deserving to be in the playoffs IMHO.
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Bama isnt undefeated. Georgia usually doesnt go undefeated. Just because cinci wouldnt go undefeated doesnt mean they arent a good to great program. It just means the SEC is tough as nails.

And how else is someone supposed to reasonably judge how good a team is beyond record? At some point a two loss team, even if they are the Tampa Bay Bucs, dont belong. It also completely diminishes the regular season if you can lose 1/6 of your games and still get in.
 
#22
#22
LouderVol said:
Bama isnt undefeated. Georgia usually doesnt go undefeated. Just because cinci wouldnt go undefeated doesnt mean they arent a good to great program. It just means the SEC is tough as nails.

And how else is someone supposed to reasonably judge how good a team is beyond record? At some point a two loss team, even if they are the Tampa Bay Bucs, dont belong. It also completely diminishes the regular season if you can lose 1/6 of your games and still get in.
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I hear ya and agree on most of what your saying. Let's say mich state goes undefeated, Oregon wins out and Alabama beats Georgia in the sec championship giving Georgia their only loss. Who gets in? I would put Alabama (18TH toughest SOS) or Georgia (24th toughest SOS) in over undefeated Cincy (94th toughest SOS) due to their SOS. I see your point but I don't think Cincy deserves to be in JUST because they're undefeated.
 
#23
#23
zjcvols said:
Unless Alabama goes 11-2 or Oregon loses they aren’t getting in. And that’s not even factoring in Okalahoma, who would definitely jump them if both teams are 13-0
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Wake Forest likely would as well, given some ranked teams now on their schedule.

The problem for Cincinnati here is that while the Notre Dame win is a fantastic win, the rest of the schedule isn’t…meaning they need to be pretty much have been curbstomping every one of those teams they play.

And also unfortunately for Cincinnati, their other major power 5 opponent Indiana, who don’t help matters as they are staring down a possible between 2-10 and 4-8 record (the “unfortunately” part coming from the fact that this record’s following a 6 year period of Indiana having somewhere between 6-8 wins each season…not even beginning to mention the drop off from last year’s results).
 
#24
#24
zjcvols said:
It’s the biggest FU to a team in the playoff’s history. They’re essentially ranked #8 because if OU and WF go through undefeated those two would get in before Cincy. They have to hope Bama, Wake, and Oregon lose. They have to hope Oklahoma and Michigan State loses twice. They have hope one of Michigan or Ohio State loses again.
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I presume they pretty much need the conference championship game to be won by a team from the Big Ten West.
 
#25
#25
ATCVolinmn said:
Just for debate sake ... Alabama wins out beating jawja in Atlanta. 2 loss Minnesota wins B1G championship. Oklahoma wins big 12 undefeated. Oregon wins out. Wake Forest wins ACC undefeated. Cincy goes undefeated. So both Alabama and Georgia are in (sucks but committee won't leave either out), who's in after that? Minnesota as B1G champs, Oklahoma as BIG12 champs, 1 loss mich st/Ohio state, Oregon as pac12 champs, wake Forest as ACC champs, or Cincy? This year is a good sample as to why CFP should expand to 8 teams.....which is a whole other conversation.....😁
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The 2 loss teams would be out. So Minnesota wouldn’t even be in the final playoff discussion.

Unfortunately for Cincinnati at this point based on what we currently see, any undefeated power 5 conference is probably pushing them out.

Which leaves the last spot between 1-loss Oregon and undefeated Wake Forest.
Oregon has the better win in Ohio State…but based on the CFP committee, the rest of their conference schedule seems to be viewed pretty poorly (based on the lack of other ranked Pac-12 teams appearing in the rankings)…plus there’s the loss to a currently 3-5 Stanford.

By the CFP’s own rankings and metrics, they now have Wake Forest playing another team probably ranked in the mid-teens when they play in two weeks (NC State). If Pittsburgh wins out, that would be a 2nd ranked team Wake Forest would have played and beaten.

With the committee’s seeming to favor the overall schedule strength, I would have to think that even though Oregon has the better single win, the 2-ranked teams now upping Wake Forest’s schedule combined with one team having won 13 games (zero losses) compared to the other having won 12 games but having one loss…all that would probably boost Wake Forest between the two.

So Oklahoma and Wake Forest.



Though, it’s really worth pointing out how fluid CFP rankings are. Each set is pretty much “if this season ended right now, here are what the playoff teams would look like” as opposed to the AP and Coaches polls “here’s the ranking of teams predicting the final ranking order based off of the previous week’s activity.” The order of the list might still shift around in future rankings due to things like a team’s strength of schedule improving after playing and beating a ranked team that week (not to mention the big boost awarded to winning the conference). So we might still see teams like OU, Oregon, Ohio State, Wake Forest, and Notre Dame shifting around a bunch - in both directions - over the upcoming weeks as aspects of the remaining games get factored into these rankings.
 
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