UF major sports containment thread

#126
#126
Lawrence Wright said:
Our athletic department has been on a steady decline since Jeremy Foley retired.
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I just can’t believe that UF is as down as many are predicting. But even if it’s true, it likely won’t last long. It’s much about recruiting. IMHO, if you can’t recruit well at FL, then you can’t recruit well at all. I’m not sure if the folks you guys have in charge are the right folks, but the 2024 class looks to be starting off pretty well.
 
#127
#127
DirtyDawg said:
I just can’t believe that UF is as down as many are predicting. But even if it’s true, it likely won’t last long. It’s much about recruiting. IMHO, if you can’t recruit well at FL, then you can’t recruit well at all. I’m not sure if the folks you guys have in charge are the right folks, but the 2024 class looks to be starting off pretty well.
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I’m telling anyone who will listen…this is the least talented roster we’ve had since Spurrier came back in 1990.
 
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#128
#128
Well,
Lawrence Wright said:
I’m telling anyone who will listen…this is the least talented roster we’ve had since Spurrier came back in 1990.
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I gotta assume that you know much more about the UF roster than I do. I have a few questions if you don’t mind. Is it because of so many losses to the portal? And if so, why do you think there were so many? Also, do you think Napier and Co can turn things around if given time? Also, will Napier be given time.

I’m just curious, any knowledge or opinions you share are much appreciated.
 
#132
#132
DirtyDawg said:
I gotta assume that you know much more about the UF roster than I do. I have a few questions if you don’t mind. Is it because of so many losses to the portal? And if so, why do you think there were so many? Also, do you think Napier and Co can turn things around if given time? Also, will Napier be given time.

I’m just curious, any knowledge or opinions you share are much appreciated.
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None of the portal losses are worth losing sleep over. Even if those guys stick around there’s a good chance we don’t make a bowl game. The roster needed gutting.

I was hoping we’d get a better portal QB, but that didn’t happen because those guys know outside of our RBs, the other skill players are average. Plus Lagway is waiting in the wings for 2024.

Napier should and will be given time, even if this season goes sideways. Our 2024 recruiting is off to a great start, so it makes no sense to fire a guy in Year 2 while he’s rebuilding the entire roster.

Besides, I think Napier‘s buyout is over $30M so he’s not going anywhere.
 
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#133
#133
Lawrence Wright said:
None of the portal losses are worth losing sleep over. Even if those guys stick around there’s a good chance we don’t make a bowl game. The roster needed gutting.

I was hoping we’d get a better portal QB, but that didn’t happen because those guys know outside of our RBs, the other skill players are average. Plus Lagway is waiting in the wings for 2024.

Napier should and will be given time, even if this season goes sideways. Our 2024 recruiting is off to a great start, so it makes no sense to fire a guy in Year 2 while he’s rebuilding the entire roster.

Besides, I think Napier‘s buyout is over $30M so he’s not going anywhere.
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Cool, thanks for the input.

I agree, I think Napier will be given time no matter what happens this season. His 24 recruiting class does look promising. And I’m certainly no QB expert, but Lagway looks like he is the real deal.
 
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#134
#134
Lawrence Wright said:
Our athletic department has been on a steady decline since Jeremy Foley retired.
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I think there is dysfunction in the Athletics Department, but you have much better insight.
Mullen's failure at UF is interesting because he and Stricklin (apparently) has some success at MSU.
 
#137
#137
LouderVol said:
What's the point of bringing up the roster except as an excuse for Napier?

I mean maybe it was a "cool story bro" moment, but that isnt your typical way of operating.
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No one excused losing to Vanderbilt.

If you want to make an argument that Napier is a bad coach regardless of roster, then by all means feel free….seems like that’s your typical way of operating.
 
#138
#138
Lawrence Wright said:
No one excused losing to Vanderbilt.

If you want to make an argument that Napier is a bad coach regardless of roster, then by all means feel free….seems like that’s your typical way of operating.
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I think the loss shows there is a ceiling on him. Not going to say he sucks because of 1 loss. But I think it shows his actual ability to coach has some pretty clear limits.

He may end up out talenting people, but I think that's a longer road with the amount of coaching talent in the SEC.
 
#139
#139
LouderVol said:
I think the loss shows there is a ceiling on him. Not going to say he sucks because of 1 loss. But I think it shows his actual ability to coach has some pretty clear limits.

He may end up out talenting people, but I think that's a longer road with the amount of coaching talent in the SEC.
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You say that in what I suspect is a pejorative sense, but 95% of successful coaches in CFB succeed because they out-talent people.
 
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#140
#140
05_never_again said:
You say that in what I suspect is a pejorative sense, but 95% of successful coaches in CFB succeed because they out-talent people.
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Depending on whatever admittedly subjective metric you want to look at there are varying degrees of success with that.

Saban found incredible success in year 2, before they were a juggernaut. Harbaugh is beating Day with less talent. Even Georgia didn't win a title until they got away from their 5* qbs. most of those guys were good, and then got the talent around them. Dabo was the same. he built slowly.

We were #19, beat I think 4 or 5 teams ahead of us. TCU was similar. how does Utah consistently beat USC?

Then you have all the negative cases, Miami, Oklahoma, TAMU who pretty much bottomed out despite still have top talent.

It still takes a good coach to get the most out of the talent you have. Butch Jones had our most talented teams since Fulmer, did squat. Richt's squads were pretty much as talented as Smart's before Smart started winning NCs. its about having the right talent for the right system you have in place. Its why I am skeptical of Colorado, I don't care who you bring in, I think they are going to be a mess despite being more talented on paper. Simply because they have a bunch of talent but probably no set culture/plan.

Talent makes their job easier, but I don't think even the best can simply rely on that to carry them. and you have to develop them, another important coaching ability. What happened with Bama, they suddenly have a dearth of talent? No. no major holes, recruiting didn't fall off, still number 1 overall in talent. coaching hurt them.
 
#141
#141
LouderVol said:
Depending on whatever admittedly subjective metric you want to look at there are varying degrees of success with that.

Saban found incredible success in year 2, before they were a juggernaut. Harbaugh is beating Day with less talent. Even Georgia didn't win a title until they got away from their 5* qbs. most of those guys were good, and then got the talent around them. Dabo was the same. he built slowly.

We were #19, beat I think 4 or 5 teams ahead of us. TCU was similar. how does Utah consistently beat USC?

Then you have all the negative cases, Miami, Oklahoma, TAMU who pretty much bottomed out despite still have top talent.

It still takes a good coach to get the most out of the talent you have. Butch Jones had our most talented teams since Fulmer, did squat. Richt's squads were pretty much as talented as Smart's before Smart started winning NCs. its about having the right talent for the right system you have in place. Its why I am skeptical of Colorado, I don't care who you bring in, I think they are going to be a mess despite being more talented on paper. Simply because they have a bunch of talent but probably no set culture/plan.

Talent makes their job easier, but I don't think even the best can simply rely on that to carry them. and you have to develop them, another important coaching ability. What happened with Bama, they suddenly have a dearth of talent? No. no major holes, recruiting didn't fall off, still number 1 overall in talent. coaching hurt them.
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My point is that the vast, vast majority of successful coaches are successful because of a talent advantage over their opponents. I'm not saying that all coaches with a talent advantage are successful. I don't think there is a single coach in modern CFB who fields championship-level teams (meaning they are consistently in the mix for conference or national titles) with recruiting classes that are clearly inferior than their competition.

Saban inherited a pretty good amount of talent when he took over, but it isn't a coincidence he got past Urban and won a title in his 3rd year, when most of that roster was made up of players from the really highly ranked classes he pulled. Harbaugh has beaten Day 2 years in a row with slightly less talent, but Urban/Day dominated him for several years before that (and it isn't like there is a huge gulf between OSU and Michigan in terms of talent). It isn't a coincidence that UGA has become the juggernaut we feared when Kirby started pulling top 3 classes every year; Richt was a good recruiter, but Kirby is even better.

2022 TCU, at this point, has to be considered a one-off. Wouldn't even label them an exception yet. Utah is definitely an exception; Whittingham is one of the 5% of coaches who is successful by something other than a talent advantage. That guy is an outstanding coach.
 
#142
#142
Lawrence Wright said:
None of the portal losses are worth losing sleep over. Even if those guys stick around there’s a good chance we don’t make a bowl game. The roster needed gutting.

I was hoping we’d get a better portal QB, but that didn’t happen because those guys know outside of our RBs, the other skill players are average. Plus Lagway is waiting in the wings for 2024.

Napier should and will be given time, even if this season goes sideways. Our 2024 recruiting is off to a great start, so it makes no sense to fire a guy in Year 2 while he’s rebuilding the entire roster.

Besides, I think Napier‘s buyout is over $30M so he’s not going anywhere.
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Yes, 2025 will really be where we should see major upsurge, maybe even '24. But would surprise no one if we are not bowl eligible this year. Napier has lowered expectations for the fans considerably this year, and for good reason. On the flip side, he has done so premised on major improvement around the corner. We shall see.
 
#143
#143
05_never_again said:
My point is that the vast, vast majority of successful coaches are successful because of a talent advantage over their opponents. I'm not saying that all coaches with a talent advantage are successful. I don't think there is a single coach in modern CFB who fields championship-level teams (meaning they are consistently in the mix for conference or national titles) with recruiting classes that are clearly inferior than their competition.

Saban inherited a pretty good amount of talent when he took over, but it isn't a coincidence he got past Urban and won a title in his 3rd year, when most of that roster was made up of players from the really highly ranked classes he pulled. Harbaugh has beaten Day 2 years in a row with slightly less talent, but Urban/Day dominated him for several years before that (and it isn't like there is a huge gulf between OSU and Michigan in terms of talent). It isn't a coincidence that UGA has become the juggernaut we feared when Kirby started pulling top 3 classes every year; Richt was a good recruiter, but Kirby is even better.

2022 TCU, at this point, has to be considered a one-off. Wouldn't even label them an exception yet. Utah is definitely an exception; Whittingham is one of the 5% of coaches who is successful by something other than a talent advantage. That guy is an outstanding coach.
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again this is 100% subjective but 247 composite says Michigan was no where close to OSU in terms of talent. Barely above Florida. #3 vs #13.

I agree TCU is probably a one-off, lots of close games.

2022 College Football Team Talent Composite

Dabo built his up. Two rings, 2016, 2018. never really out recruited people.

2018 class, #7
2017 class, #16
2016 class, #11
2015 class, #9
2014 class, #16
2013 class, #15

Richt's fault was he didn't coach up to his recruiting rankings. It wasn't like his only losses were to the more talented teams. He always seemed to find a way to lose to a bad team.

saban was one Tebow miracle away from winning a title in year 2. its not like it was a surprise he broke through. and the fall of Urban wasn't like he was suddenly getting bad players, the coaching fell off. it was pretty clear his downfall at UF was probably more from a lap dance at a bar type situation rather than X player was a bust. same at OSU, he was good early on with some fire in his belly, but eventually got comfortable and lost the edge that won titles, and he passed it on to his X and O guy.

Fulmer never lacked in talent either, but he lost his great OC, and suddenly we go from being one of the best teams in the nation to barely challenging for the East. Coaching.
 
#144
#144
LouderVol said:
again this is 100% subjective but 247 composite says Michigan was no where close to OSU in terms of talent. Barely above Florida. #3 vs #13.

I agree TCU is probably a one-off, lots of close games.

2022 College Football Team Talent Composite

Dabo built his up. Two rings, 2016, 2018. never really out recruited people.

2018 class, #7
2017 class, #16
2016 class, #11
2015 class, #9
2014 class, #16
2013 class, #15

Richt's fault was he didn't coach up to his recruiting rankings. It wasn't like his only losses were to the more talented teams. He always seemed to find a way to lose to a bad team.

saban was one Tebow miracle away from winning a title in year 2. its not like it was a surprise he broke through. and the fall of Urban wasn't like he was suddenly getting bad players, the coaching fell off. it was pretty clear his downfall at UF was probably more from a lap dance at a bar type situation rather than X player was a bust. same at OSU, he was good early on with some fire in his belly, but eventually got comfortable and lost the edge that won titles, and he passed it on to his X and O guy.

Fulmer never lacked in talent either, but he lost his great OC, and suddenly we go from being one of the best teams in the nation to barely challenging for the East. Coaching.
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We have much different definitions of "nowhere close." IMO a team "nowhere close" to Ohio St in terms of talent has a recruiting class ranked 30th nationally, not 13th. Michigan is usually at least in the same ballpark as OSU, although almost always seeming to trail them a little bit, and guess what...for most of the last 15 years OSU has gotten the better of them.

Fulmer did indeed lack talent towards the end. 2 out of his last 4 classes were duds. However like I said the point I'm making is that successful coaches are successful typically because they out-talent people, not that every coach who out-talents people is successful. Show me a coach who continually is in the mix for championships/fields a top team who consistently has average recruiting classes, or who are consistently ranked pretty far below their rivals (not by a spot or two, or even several spots). They are very, very few and far between. Whittingham at Utah has done it lately, Wisconsin has done it some over the years under various coaches, and K-State did it some under Bill Snyder (and might be starting to do it again under Klieman).
 
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#145
#145
05_never_again said:
We have much different definitions of "nowhere close." IMO a team "nowhere close" to Ohio St in terms of talent has a recruiting class ranked 30th nationally, not 13th. Michigan is usually at least in the same ballpark as OSU, although almost always seeming to trail them a little bit, and guess what...for most of the last 15 years OSU has gotten the better of them.

Fulmer did indeed lack talent towards the end. 2 out of his last 4 classes were duds. However like I said the point I'm making is that successful coaches are successful typically because they out-talent people, not that every coach who out-talents people is successful. Show me a coach who continually is in the mix for championships/fields a top team who consistently has average recruiting classes, or who are consistently ranked pretty far below their rivals (not by a spot or two, or even several spots). They are very, very few and far between. Whittingham at Utah has done it lately, Wisconsin has done it some over the years under various coaches, and K-State did it some under Bill Snyder (and might be starting to do it again under Klieman).
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what I have been consistently told here is that until we are recruiting Top 5 we aren't in that group that will challenge consistently for titles. and yeah there is a pretty big gap between 3 & 13, yeah its not 3 & 30, but that's a completely different conversation. If #13 is "good enough" then UT was and now Florida is talented enough to challenge. Clemson even before they lost their coordinators was more talented than they were in 2018 and haven't been able to reproduce that success.

If 3 vs 30 is your standard, I don't see how you can argue ANY top coach relies on being more talented than their opponents. You are pretty much guaranteed to be playing teams better than #30 if you are going for a title.

I have always seen it as a balancing act. The better Xs and Os you are the less reliant on the Jimmy's and Joes you have to be. However, keeping that edge is difficult because other teams will adapt. Look at Saban, he has had the talent since at least his 3rd year, but he has had to change his strategy to stay on top. That's what makes him the best. Talent was consistent, but the coaching had to change, and is apparently changing again. Even with Smart, he has been top 3 in talent pretty much the whole time, but didn't break through until 2021 because his coaching eventually figured out how to counter/use the offensive shift we have seen. I don't know what the next shift in college football will be, but I will be interested to see if Smart can adapt as well as Saban has to the changing X's and O's. We have seen a number of other coaches get the talent, win a title, and then disappear with no apparent drop off in talent. you have to adapt, stacking classes isn't enough. IMO if consistently out talenting your opponents was the golden standard they wouldn't need to adapt.

Even Heupel's success this year was with some changes to the offense, while no great influx of talent. More short yardage under center, being able to milk the clock a little, getting creative with players, whether Fant or Hyatt.

I doubt we are going to change each other's minds, but its been a fun discussion :hat tip:
 
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#146
#146
LouderVol said:
what I have been consistently told here is that until we are recruiting Top 5 we aren't in that group that will challenge consistently for titles. and yeah there is a pretty big gap between 3 & 13, yeah its not 3 & 30, but that's a completely different conversation. If #13 is "good enough" then UT was and now Florida is talented enough to challenge. Clemson even before they lost their coordinators was more talented than they were in 2018 and haven't been able to reproduce that success.

If 3 vs 30 is your standard, I don't see how you can argue ANY top coach relies on being more talented than their opponents. You are pretty much guaranteed to be playing teams better than #30 if you are going for a title.

I have always seen it as a balancing act. The better Xs and Os you are the less reliant on the Jimmy's and Joes you have to be. However, keeping that edge is difficult because other teams will adapt. Look at Saban, he has had the talent since at least his 3rd year, but he has had to change his strategy to stay on top. That's what makes him the best. Talent was consistent, but the coaching had to change, and is apparently changing again. Even with Smart, he has been top 3 in talent pretty much the whole time, but didn't break through until 2021 because his coaching eventually figured out how to counter/use the offensive shift we have seen. I don't know what the next shift in college football will be, but I will be interested to see if Smart can adapt as well as Saban has to the changing X's and O's. We have seen a number of other coaches get the talent, win a title, and then disappear with no apparent drop off in talent. you have to adapt, stacking classes isn't enough. IMO if consistently out talenting your opponents was the golden standard they wouldn't need to adapt.

Even Heupel's success this year was with some changes to the offense, while no great influx of talent. More short yardage under center, being able to milk the clock a little, getting creative with players, whether Fant or Hyatt.

I doubt we are going to change each other's minds, but its been a fun discussion :hat tip:
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Out-talenting people isn't a magical standard that will keep you winning titles no matter what. Of course the coaches have to coach.

However having the talent necessary is a prerequisite; something you have to have (unless you're the 5% exception). If you have top talent, and have at least decent development abilities, then you'll compete for titles. If Saban, or Kirby, or some other top coach consistently pulled classes in the 20s, it likely would not matter how well they developed those guys, or how well he and his staff coached Xs and Os. They probably would still field good teams, or teams that punched above their weight, but they wouldn't be winning 50% of the national titles over a 15 year period. I'd virtually guarantee that. Saban didn't win national titles at Michigan St, Bryant didn't win titles at UK or A&M, and Lou Holtz didn't win titles at NC State, Arkansas, or South Carolina.
 
#147
#147
I don’t understand why Tennessee fans are worried in the least about Florida. We have an incompetent moron masquerading as an athletic director. We have an elementary school physical education teacher as a head coach. We have not one but two quarterbacks that were told to leave the programs they were playing for because of their lack of talent and abilities. We have a first year defensive coordinator who has no justifiable experience. Our head coach is basing his entire future on the recruiting of one quarterback who may or may not even come to Florida especially after he sees the fiasco on the field this season. Billy isn’t going anywhere because of the contract Florida gave him. 30 million to a guy who won basically at a high school level conference. The only way things will change at Florida is when the administration gets their heads out of their rears and look up to see the empty seats in the stadium which will be about mid season. The one thing this fan has going for him as far as college football is I don’t “hate” any other SEC team other than ugag.
 
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