USU line

#126
#126
daj2576 said:
I didn't pay as much attention to betting lines then, but my dusky memory of the Cincy game betting trend seems to be similar as this. Phil Steele shows the line as UT -4. Also, and again I am relying on a vague memory, the NCSU game seems similar insofar as better trends, and Steele shows that game as UT favored by -3.

Whether my memory of betting trends is correct (did the line actually fall precipitously leading to game time?) the situation is analogous. Now, as then, a relatively talented UT team that is perceived as bad is playing a relatively untalented team that is perceived as good. Perception is key to the average better, I imagine. I also don't understand how the label "sharp" gets thrown around simply because they bet big. Having money doesn't necessarily prove you are smart, or that you are good with it.
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I think Tennessee opened at -7 or -7.5. This same conversation took place with Tennessee fans all over the place.
 
#128
#128
If the line is -6 you're betting tennessee will win by atleast 6, and if you pick USU you're betting they will either win or lose by less than 6. Correct? I haven't messed with this betting stuff either.

As far as the -110 vs. +110. What determines that?
 
#129
#129
BruiserVol said:
If the line is -6 you're betting tennessee will win by atleast 6, and if you pick USU you're betting they will either win or lose by less than 6. Correct? I haven't messed with this betting stuff either.

As far as the -110 vs. +110. What determines that?
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-110 = $1.10 bet gets you a $1.00 return on money wagered

+110 = $1.00 bet gets you a $1.10 return on money money wagered

What determines it is the probability of the confidence rating of the wager line.
 
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#130
#130
Sudden Impact said:
-110 = $1.10 bet gets you a $1.00 return on money wagered

+110 = $1.00 bet gets you a $1.10 return on money money wagered
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I know that. My question is: A +110 would obviously mean a bigger gain in money. What determines if you're betting + or - 110? Does that make sense?

Edit. Ok I figured it had to be something to do with if it was a hard pick or not.
 
#132
#132
Nationdom said:
What's magic middle?
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Means I took USU +7 and UT -3. If UT wins by 4,5,6 I win both bets. Only risking 5% of both wagers max. Or push one win the other if UT wins by 3 or 7. Basically very low risk with high reward. #magicmiddle
 
#134
#134
Exfix said:
Means I took USU +7 and UT -3. If UT wins by 4,5,6 I win both bets. Only risking 5% of both wagers max. Or push one win the other if UT wins by 3 or 7. Basically very low risk with high reward. #magicmiddle
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I see, thanks
 
#137
#137
Sudden Impact said:
I know this sounds odd, but Tennessee is a hard team to get a read on this year and especially in the first game.

Too many intangibles on the surface on this team to make an accurate prediction for an outsider looking in,

Examples: 2nd year coach (his previous records 2nd year), OL gone that was great but an OL replacing it that has been around but Unknown. The Worley Factor, a WR Group that is 1st Class but not proven yet at UT, The Influx of 35 unknown players of which the Coach has stated that 30 Freshman would more than likely play in this game, most setting lines probably don't even know the number of EEs or to them this may not be a factor. They don't know about the Weight training and loss of body fat. Probably don't know that we outweigh USU by 30lbs on both lines of scrimmages.

The only facts they have to go on and to set the line are as follows:

Past year under CBJ
Results of teams with this kind of turnover.
TN is the Home Team
Weather may or may not be a factor
It is at Neyland and the Crowd may or may not be a factor.
USU has been in close games with OOC competition.
Keeton and the RB are back and will start.
Tennessee has been terrible for the last 3+ Seasons.
As long as the Tennessee Faithful and USU faithful keep betting the line then swing it to see what happens.

The line should be @-9 to -9.5, Ten years ago it would easily have been -11 to -17

They don't have the time to know the whole story and are only setting it based on the surface.
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Good Stuff:

Also, Logan Utah is closer to Vegas, uscW is close to Vegas.

USU almost beat uscW during kiffen meltdown last year. uscW is ranked about 16 this year.
 
#140
#140
I think you will cover but i am not sure it'll be comfortable all game. It certainly could be. But I've maintained all along usu has the potential to bring it down to the fourth quarter.
 
#142
#142
Mr_Henley said:
It's actually really easy.

Let's say the USU @ TN line is -6 (-110)

You simply add the + (underdog-USU) or subtract the - (favorite-TN) from the final score.

So if the final score is TN-24 USU-17 and you bet TN (-6)....."your" final score is TN-18 USU-17....meaning you win your bet.

If you bet USU and the opposite (+6) you would simply add 6 points to their final total.

If adding or subtracting causes a tie, you get your money back. (Which is why you see -4.5 type lines, simply removed the tie)

(-110) is how much you have to risk to bet these spreads (plus and minuses). You risk $1.10 to win $1.00. So if you put $1.10 on TN (-6) and they cover (win) you get intial $1.10 + $1.00 for $2.10 total.

If you see a line with (+250) you risk $1.00 to win $2.50. (Or $100 for $250)
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The concise explanation would be:

UT having a -6 line means they have to win by more than six for you to win.
 
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