USU line

#101
#101
It is hard for the Sharps to bet on a team that will be potentially playing 30 Freshman in their first game of their college careers. Especially with our record of the last 3 years. They have no basis to go on and another factor thrown into it is the LOS on both sides of the ball is new. Add Keeton who is considered a dark horse Candidate out west for the heisman and yes upset potential.

If this was last year, the line would be about the same. Tennessee was 5-7 ATS last year.
 
#102
#102
Obsessed said:
If some one wanted to bet 100 bucks, where would one go to do this ? (Website) and how would one bet, if some one was to do this?

Asking for a friend. :)
Click to expand...

I've had an account at Bovada for about ten years. Easy to use interface. Just create your account, deposit $$ with your credit card and bet your heart out. I've had to 'cash out' several times through the years and Bovada has always been very quick in sending me a check (via FedEx).
 
#103
#103
azvol03 said:
I've had an account at Bovada for about ten years. Easy to use interface. Just create your account, deposit $$ with your credit card and bet your heart out. I've had to 'cash out' several times through the years and Bovada has always been very quick in sending me a check (via FedEx).
Click to expand...

Thank you
 
#104
#104
azvol03 said:
I've had an account at Bovada for about ten years. Easy to use interface. Just create your account, deposit $$ with your credit card and bet your heart out. I've had to 'cash out' several times through the years and Bovada has always been very quick in sending me a check (via FedEx).
Click to expand...

ditto....
 
#106
#106
silentearth1973 said:
The line moves to keep the money even on each side of the bet. Vegas is most likely going to make a profit on the juice no matter which side hits.

They do take their hits, but that business is thriving regardless.
Click to expand...

Here is an interesting statistic, using Vegas betting stats from 1980-2001, and compiled by Steven Levitt (author of "Freakonomics.")

"...bets on home favorites win 49.1% of the time. Bets on home underdogs win 57.7% of time...visiting favorites win 47.8% of time, while bets on road underdogs win 50.4% of time. Favorites are not a good bet." W.L. Winston, Mathletics.

Also "the tendency of the favorite to cover the spread was virtually independent of the size of the spread."

This uses NFL betting data, but if I had to guess it would remain pretty consistent for college football.

Of note, this trend is important as it actually shows that Vegas does not simply try to get 50% of the money on either side of the line. Vegas tries to get more money on the home favorite, thus increasing their profits from about 50 cents for every ten dollars bet to 61.56 cents (23% increase) for every ten dollars bet.

Anyone armed with just this knowledge could make money in Vegas just by "simply betting on home underdogs."

Also, I checked the numbers again this morning and from what I can see Vegas still has UT favored -6.5, while some offshore books are at -4.5, at least one has jumped up to -7.5.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: 1 person
#107
#107
To me and Vegas may not agree but I think one of the biggest uncertainties about this game is Keeton. People just seem to expect him to step in and be what he was in the past. This is his first game since injury and from what I hear he's been in a non contact jersey since getting back to practice. It takes a while to come back mentally and physically from this type injury. Do the bettors not take this into account?
 
#110
#110
daj2576 said:
Here is an interesting statistic, using Vegas betting stats from 1980-2001, and compiled by Steven Levitt (author of "Freakonomics.")

"...bets on home favorites win 49.1% of the time. Bets on home underdogs win 57.7% of time...visiting favorites win 47.8% of time, while bets on road underdogs win 50.4% of time. Favorites are not a good bet." W.L. Winston, Mathletics.

Also "the tendency of the favorite to cover the spread was virtually independent of the size of the spread."

This uses NFL betting data, but if I had to guess it would remain pretty consistent for college football.

Of note, this trend is important as it actually shows that Vegas does not simply try to get 50% of the money on either side of the line. Vegas tries to get more money on the home favorite, thus increasing their profits from about 50 cents for every ten dollars bet to 61.56 cents (23% increase) for every ten dollars bet.

Anyone armed with just this knowledge could make money in Vegas just by "simply betting on home underdogs."

Also, I checked the numbers again this morning and from what I can see Vegas still has UT favored -6.5, while some offshore books are at -4.5, at least one has jumped up to -7.5.
Click to expand...

I wonder if the added parity in the NFL blows this up for NCAA betting.
 
#111
#111
BigOrangeTrain said:
Really? So please tell us the last time Utah State played the #1, 2, 6, 7, 10 and 11th ranked teams? When was the last time they beat a top 15 team? What team has USU played better than SC last year?
Click to expand...

The only ranked team they played last year was I believe USC at the time..and maybe lost to Frenso State in their conference game...dunno if Frenso was ranked then.
 
#112
#112
I got the -6 on Thursday and have been to just to pick other games. Probably will look into night caps while watching the Bama/WV game.

I'm in Vegas, so if anyone here is ever out here, we can catch a game.
 
#113
#113
daj2576 said:
Here is an interesting statistic, using Vegas betting stats from 1980-2001, and compiled by Steven Levitt (author of "Freakonomics.")

"...bets on home favorites win 49.1% of the time. Bets on home underdogs win 57.7% of time...visiting favorites win 47.8% of time, while bets on road underdogs win 50.4% of time. Favorites are not a good bet." W.L. Winston, Mathletics.

Also "the tendency of the favorite to cover the spread was virtually independent of the size of the spread."

This uses NFL betting data, but if I had to guess it would remain pretty consistent for college football.

Of note, this trend is important as it actually shows that Vegas does not simply try to get 50% of the money on either side of the line. Vegas tries to get more money on the home favorite, thus increasing their profits from about 50 cents for every ten dollars bet to 61.56 cents (23% increase) for every ten dollars bet.

Anyone armed with just this knowledge could make money in Vegas just by "simply betting on home underdogs."

Also, I checked the numbers again this morning and from what I can see Vegas still has UT favored -6.5, while some offshore books are at -4.5, at least one has jumped up to -7.5.
Click to expand...

So what does the - number mean? The further negative it goes the more likely that team is going to win? Or is it to cover the spread? Ill be honest..not a gambler so the spread, the -/+ stuff is like korean to me.
 
#115
#115
This game has similarities to the Cincy - Tennessee 2011 game. Ironically CBJs first visit to UTK.

Cincy had several NFL Caliber players, veteran quarterback in Zach Collaros and running back Isaiah Pead. Several outlets predicted an upset and a single digit line. We had Freshman playing on defense which was suspect. CBJ and Dools 2nd year.

This game has the same feel sorta but more so by the Media than the fans.

We all know the result and I feel we will win by more than 13 points.

We will get our first real look at what Coaching and leadership are truly about and how this coach is doing what he preaches in team building across the board. A team of One.

We are not there yet but give it another season or two.
 
#116
#116
FLVOL_79 said:
So what does the - number mean? The further negative it goes the more likely that team is going to win? Or is it to cover the spread? Ill be honest..not a gambler so the spread, the -/+ stuff is like korean to me.
Click to expand...

It's actually really easy.

Let's say the USU @ TN line is -6 (-110)

You simply add the + (underdog-USU) or subtract the - (favorite-TN) from the final score.

So if the final score is TN-24 USU-17 and you bet TN (-6)....."your" final score is TN-18 USU-17....meaning you win your bet.

If you bet USU and the opposite (+6) you would simply add 6 points to their final total.

If adding or subtracting causes a tie, you get your money back. (Which is why you see -4.5 type lines, simply removed the tie)

(-110) is how much you have to risk to bet these spreads (plus and minuses). You risk $1.10 to win $1.00. So if you put $1.10 on TN (-6) and they cover (win) you get intial $1.10 + $1.00 for $2.10 total.

If you see a line with (+250) you risk $1.00 to win $2.50. (Or $100 for $250)
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: 1 person
#118
#118
FLVOL_79 said:
So what does the - number mean? The further negative it goes the more likely that team is going to win? Or is it to cover the spread? Ill be honest..not a gambler so the spread, the -/+ stuff is like korean to me.
Click to expand...

The best way I can explain it is this. A negative number means that team is favored to win by that point value. If you bet on the team with the negative number, you are betting that they will win by more than that amount. If you bet on the team with the positive value, you are betting that they will lose by less than that amount, or win outright.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 person
#119
#119
Orange_Crush said:
I wonder if the added parity in the NFL blows this up for NCAA betting.
Click to expand...

I would say that if you are correct that the parity in the NFL actually makes gambling there more difficult it would then stand to reason that gambling on NCAA games would be easier. If so, Vegas could do more to maximize profits as the outcome would be more stable.

But, parity is really irrelevant to this discussion. All Vegas needs to do is to track bets and betting tendencies. If NCAA football betters tend to bet visiting underdogs more heavily, then they just shift the line to maximize profits along those tendencies.

The bottom line is that Vegas doesn't appear to simply be happy with 50% of the betters on either side of the line, they want to use psychology against the betters, and do. Against the field, the house always wins and wins big.
 
#120
#120
Sudden Impact said:
This game has similarities to the Cincy - Tennessee 2011 game. Ironically CBJs first visit to UTK.

Cincy had several NFL Caliber players, veteran quarterback in Zach Collaros and running back Isaiah Pead. Several outlets predicted an upset and a single digit line. We had Freshman playing on defense which was suspect. CBJ and Dools 2nd year.

This game has the same feel sorta but more so by the Media than the fans.

We all know the result and I feel we will win by more than 13 points.

We will get our first real look at what Coaching and leadership are truly about and how this coach is doing what he preaches in team building across the board. A team of One.

We are not there yet but give it another season or two.
Click to expand...

I didn't pay as much attention to betting lines then, but my dusky memory of the Cincy game betting trend seems to be similar as this. Phil Steele shows the line as UT -4. Also, and again I am relying on a vague memory, the NCSU game seems similar insofar as better trends, and Steele shows that game as UT favored by -3.

Whether my memory of betting trends is correct (did the line actually fall precipitously leading to game time?) the situation is analogous. Now, as then, a relatively talented UT team that is perceived as bad is playing a relatively untalented team that is perceived as good. Perception is key to the average better, I imagine. I also don't understand how the label "sharp" gets thrown around simply because they bet big. Having money doesn't necessarily prove you are smart, or that you are good with it.
 
Last edited:
#121
#121
silentearth1973 said:
The line moves to keep the money even on each side of the bet. Vegas is most likely going to make a profit on the juice no matter which side hits.

They do take their hits, but that business is thriving regardless.
Click to expand...

But if they have been dropping the line all week, that is an indication that the action has been on Utah State the whole time and their book is, at least a little bit, unbalanced.

If their book is unbalanced, then they need the result in their favor, which is a situation they never want to be in.
 
#122
#122
05_never_again said:
But if they have been dropping the line all week, that is an indication that the action has been on Utah State the whole time and their book is, at least a little bit, unbalanced.

If their book is unbalanced, then they need the result in their favor, which is a situation they never want to be in.
Click to expand...

Right, but the percentage if bets are roughly 60% on UT. USU is getting the bigger plays. The money pool is probably fairly even with the higher value bets being on USU. The payout for books will most likely be the same either way.
 
#123
#123
daj2576 said:
I didn't pay as much attention to betting lines then, but my dusky memory of the Cincy game betting trend seems to be similar as this. Phil Steele shows the line as UT -4. Also, and again I am relying on a vague memory, the NCSU game seems similar insofar as better trends, and Steele shows that game as UT favored by -3.

Whether my memory of betting trends is correct (did the line actually fall precipitously leading to game time?) the situation is analogous. Now, as then, a relatively talented UT team that is perceived as bad is playing a relatively untalented team that is perceived as good. Perception is key to the average better, I imagine. I also don't understand how the label "sharp" gets thrown around simply because they bet big. Having money doesn't necessarily prove you are smart, or that you are good with it.
Click to expand...

Right, but the percentage if bets are roughly 60% on UT. USU is getting the bigger plays. The money pool is probably fairly even with the higher value bets being on USU. The payout for books will most likely be the same either way.
Click to expand...

Isn't that the truth....They must be wagering Warren Jeff's Defense Fund....
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: 1 person
#125
#125
Mr_Henley said:
It's actually really easy.

Let's say the USU @ TN line is -6 (-110)

You simply add the + (underdog-USU) or subtract the - (favorite-TN) from the final score.

So if the final score is TN-24 USU-17 and you bet TN (-6)....."your" final score is TN-18 USU-17....meaning you win your bet.

If you bet USU and the opposite (+6) you would simply add 6 points to their final total.

If adding or subtracting causes a tie, you get your money back. (Which is why you see -4.5 type lines, simply removed the tie)

(-110) is how much you have to risk to bet these spreads (plus and minuses). You risk $1.10 to win $1.00. So if you put $1.10 on TN (-6) and they cover (win) you get intial $1.10 + $1.00 for $2.10 total.

If you see a line with (+250) you risk $1.00 to win $2.50. (Or $100 for $250)
Click to expand...

Ok makes sense thanks! :good!:
 
New posts
You must log in or register to reply here.

VN Store



Back
Top