USU line

#76
#76
Does anyone have access to historical data that shows the line movement prior to the 2013 WKU gams; the 2012 NCSU game; the 2008 UCLA game; the 2007 Cal game; the 2006 Cal game or the 1998 vs. Syracuse game?

Phil Steele shows Syracuse as even, we were +3 and +6 against Cal, -7 against UCLA, -3 against NCSU, and -12 against WKU. I would like to know where those lines started, and the data associated with those trends. It seems that the NCSU game dropped substantially from the opening line, if memory serves and that WKU did as well, but I wasn't really paying that much attention then.
 
#78
#78
I just put three months' mortgage on the Vols. If I lose, ouch to the savings. If I win, the Vols just paid my house payments for the season!

GO VOLS!

:stop:
 
#79
#79
HuntlandVolinColo said:
USU is riding their reputation but the players that built it have moved on. USU lost more players than us, recruited worse and by all indications had a terrible Summer Camp.

We will beat them soundly IMO similar to Ole Miss - Boise State.

Our defense is much better than last year, especially LB, Secondary and DE.

Special Teams will be just that...Special.

WR & TE...plenty of ball to go around to plenty of open players.
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Hmmm not sure about any of that. Moved on... you mean like drafted/signed contracts in the NFL like many of last years team ended up? Yea we lost a few. You guys seem to discount the fact that many of our 2nd string guys had loads of playing time last year. It's why we keep emphasizing the fact that we have a bit more experience. And I love the ranking our recruiting class. You think Wisconsin HC and former Aggies HC cared about stupid stars by the names of recruits? You should do a little more research as to how recruits get those stars to begin with, I know because I used to be heavily involved in that stuff. In the end it's coaching and and eye for/developing talent is all that matters. So rag on our recruiting class all you want, many of our recruits never attended any camps, thus no "star" rating by their name. Yet those guys were tearing it up in HS.

I'm not predicting an Aggie win on Sunday, I know that it will be a tough game for us, but I think we'll certainly impress you guys. Our discipline, our quickness, and our defense will turn heads! Furget Chuckie, yea he's good, but he's not the team by any means... he's just one of 11 cylinders is all.

Best of luck with the rest of the season, and cheers! *where in the hell is the beer mug click emoticon?*
 
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#80
#80
Let the line drop..when we beat these bums by double digits all will be forgotten...Vegas just making money. Chuckie keeton tore both his ACL and MCL, anyone who thinks he is going to be the same type of player he was before the injury is fooling themselves. He may scramble but he will run or throw out of bounds or slide before contact.
 
#87
#87
In a first game like this, everybody is betting the past. USU has been surprisingly good recently, and we have consistently disappointed. Nobody knows what this year will bring for either team. It is a crap shoot. Especially with all of the new players playing for both teams.

Now, if this was the sixth game, and there was some past action from this season to analyze, I might be wondering what people were seeing to make the line move like that.

However, even then, the game doesn't always go according to the line. If Vols win, Vegas will make more money because the majority of the action is on USU.
 
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#90
#90
I know this sounds odd, but Tennessee is a hard team to get a read on this year and especially in the first game.

Too many intangibles on the surface on this team to make an accurate prediction for an outsider looking in,

Examples: 2nd year coach (his previous records 2nd year), OL gone that was great but an OL replacing it that has been around but Unknown. The Worley Factor, a WR Group that is 1st Class but not proven yet at UT, The Influx of 35 unknown players of which the Coach has stated that 30 Freshman would more than likely play in this game, most setting lines probably don't even know the number of EEs or to them this may not be a factor. They don't know about the Weight training and loss of body fat. Probably don't know that we outweigh USU by 30lbs on both lines of scrimmages.

The only facts they have to go on and to set the line are as follows:

Past year under CBJ
Results of teams with this kind of turnover.
TN is the Home Team
Weather may or may not be a factor
It is at Neyland and the Crowd may or may not be a factor.
USU has been in close games with OOC competition.
Keeton and the RB are back and will start.
Tennessee has been terrible for the last 3+ Seasons.
As long as the Tennessee Faithful and USU faithful keep betting the line then swing it to see what happens.

The line should be @-9 to -9.5, Ten years ago it would easily have been -11 to -17

They don't have the time to know the whole story and are only setting it based on the surface.
 
#91
#91
Backwards K said:
Off topic but wondering if you could explain what happened on the Vandy -- Temple line this week. Vandy opened up as a 17 pt favorite but the line dropped to 10 by game time. What was going on there?
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It means "somebody" (and by somebody, I mean a lot of people) saw Vandy -17, thought that was way too many points, and bet Temple hard. They were right.
 
#92
#92
Backwards K said:
Off topic but wondering if you could explain what happened on the Vandy -- Temple line this week. Vandy opened up as a 17 pt favorite but the line dropped to 10 by game time. What was going on there?
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Seriously? It always has to do with where people are laying the money. I'd say at 17 people were betting hard and heavy that Vandy wouldnt cover. And thus the line came down. In turn, the money has been indicating not much confidence that UT will cover.
 
#93
#93
Roustabout said:
USU has played much better teams close.
They have already developed a culture and system of winning. Butch had a losing record year one and lost both lines.
I'm sorry, what's the question?
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The question is how a team with less team replaces more starters and then walks into Neyland and pulls off a victory.

They've played "much better teams close"? I guess you mean besides UGA and USCe, right?
 
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#94
#94
05_never_again said:
It means "somebody" (and by somebody, I mean a lot of people) saw Vandy -17, thought that was way too many points, and bet Temple hard. They were right.
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Exactly. And that's my point about the UT - USU game: "It means "somebody" (and by somebody, I mean a lot of people) saw Tennessee -7.5, thought that was way too many points, and bet Utah State hard."

Utah State has a lot of respect from the people who make a living at this. I wouldn't bet "the 401k money on the Vols as someone suggested earlier.
 
#95
#95
The part that the OP left out is that so far only 35% of the bets have been on USU. So the argument some of you have made that the "stupid public" are all over USU isn't valid. In fact, the majority of the bets, 65%, are on Tennessee.

Whenever you see a smaller percentage of the bets moving a line this much it is concerning. That means that even though they've only gotten 1/3 of the bets, the total amount of money wagered on Utah State exceeds what has been wagered on Tennessee. So much so, that its moved the line about 2 points. Thats usually a sign of "sharps" betting on the team that the majority of the public is not.

Good news is they aren't always right. But its a valid point the OP made.
 
#96
#96
Evol, good point and thanks for clarifying that point. That's what I have been saying all along. UT will win but it should be a close game and apparently, the bettors agree with that point.

The Vols will be a much better team as the year goes along (provided injuries are at a minimum).
 
#97
#97
Backwards K said:
Exactly. And that's my point about the UT - USU game: "It means "somebody" (and by somebody, I mean a lot of people) saw Tennessee -7.5, thought that was way too many points, and bet Utah State hard."

Utah State has a lot of respect from the people who make a living at this. I wouldn't bet "the 401k money on the Vols as someone suggested earlier.
Click to expand...

It also means that Vegas stands to make a killing on this game if Tennessee covers (as the action has been on Utah State this week). Vegas wins more than it loses.
 
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#98
#98
Evol said:
The part that the OP left out is that so far only 35% of the bets have been on USU. So the argument some of you have made that the "stupid public" are all over USU isn't valid. In fact, the majority of the bets, 65%, are on Tennessee.

Whenever you see a smaller percentage of the bets moving a line this much it is concerning. That means that even though they've only gotten 1/3 of the bets, the total amount of money wagered on Utah State exceeds what has been wagered on Tennessee. So much so, that its moved the line about 2 points. Thats usually a sign of "sharps" betting on the team that the majority of the public is not.

Good news is they aren't always right. But its a valid point the OP made.
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This.

A couple of us had this convo in another thread a few days ago. The sharps aren't ALWAYS right, but it's never a good idea to go against them. It certainly doesn't mean that USU is sure to cover, but what it should mean to a knowledgeable bettor is to not take UT. It just tends to be bad for your bank.

With those of you who have some action on our boys tomorrow, best of luck...I hope you all make some money! :hi:
 
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#99
#99
05_never_again said:
It also means that Vegas stands to make a killing on this game if Tennessee covers (as the action has been on Utah State this week). Vegas wins more than it loses.
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The line moves to keep the money even on each side of the bet. Vegas is most likely going to make a profit on the juice no matter which side hits.

They do take their hits, but that business is thriving regardless.
 
#100
#100
If some one wanted to bet 100 bucks, where would one go to do this ? (Website) and how would one bet, if some one was to do this?

Asking for a friend. :)
 
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