UT Georgia computer model prediction

#27
#27
VolFan4Life87 said:
In the article: “For Tennessee, a loss would probably spell the end of their national title run.”

Why? If UGA does win and UT wins the remaining games on the schedule, who the F is the better one loss team than UT?
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We gotta keep it close if we lose to be considered for the playoffs
 
#28
#28
DiderotsGhost said:
This is hilarious when people try to discredit the most accurate models. These types of models are used by Vegas. And while they aren't perfect, they are far more accurate than the alternative of humans randomly making bad guesses. The good computer models get things right more often than not and they are certainly more reliable than random internet message board posters.

That said, Tennessee's rapid improvement this season is difficult to factor into those models. The team that barely got by Pitt in overtime would've gotten clobbered by Georgia. The team that beat Bama, obliterated LSU, and destroyed Kentucky has a shot. It's rare for a team to improve this much this quickly and the models have difficulty factoring that in.

Georgia should be considered the favorite. It's in Athens and they've destroyed everyone they've played this season with the sole exception of Mizzou. But we have a better chance than the models suggest if we play like we have over the past few weeks.
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Yes. Agreed. And yet...

...even Vegas only gets football games right ~70% of the time. Once in a while a prognosticator pushes that to the very edge of the envelope around 75%. That seems to be the limit of the game's predictability.

Which means, about 3 times out of every 10, Vegas and the computers and the experts get it wrong. 3 out of 10 games wrong.

I'm not saying they're not better than you and me. They definitely are. But they're wrong quite frequently, too.

Go Vols!
 
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#29
#29
The computer might be right in terms of what SHOULD HAPPEN. But no machine, however intricate, can calculate the intangible human elements. Degrees of motivation, cause of said motivation, individual initiative(s), or that thing that shows up and pushes you toward acts above and beyond.

Apologies to Ronald Reagan for paraphrasing, and mildly editing his comments.
"Where do we find such men? We find them where we've always found them when we need them. We find them where we found you -- on the main streets, in stores, and shops, just ordinary people from ordinary walks of life. We find them on farms. Ordinary people who, when the need presented itself, rose to extraordinary effort and achievement.''
 
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#32
#32
Relax. Kirk Herbstreit built the program to wire directly into his very elite ESPN computer brain. We’re good.
 
#34
#34
VolFan4Life87 said:
In the article: “For Tennessee, a loss would probably spell the end of their national title run.”

Why? If UGA does win and UT wins the remaining games on the schedule, who the F is the better one loss team than UT?
Click to expand...

Probably nobody, but that isn't the point. The loser of this game will need other contenders--clemson, tcu, bama,---to lose (or lose again). The loser of this game will still have a chance to make the playoff--but there could be four teams competing for the two remaining playoff spots after the SEC title winner and the osu/michigan winner take the first two. And I very much doubt that the loser of this game will get the nod over, say, an undefeated Clemson. But I predict that at least one of tcu/clemson is going to lose a game.
 
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#35
#35
We certainly got a couple of big calls in the bama game, and we could be on the other end of some calls in this game. That's often the way it works with the crowd bellowing at the officials.
 
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#37
#37
ESPN computers still have Texas 6th in their power ratings.

It’s not straight up, but favored teams playing at home cover the spread in 2022 in 49.1% of the games so far this year.

Tennessee is 7-1 against the spread. It doesn’t mean we beat UGA, but we are an outlier in any power rating system this year because we are just OK on defensive metrics for the season. Power ratings always put more on margin of victory and defense than they do offensive firepower.
 
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#38
#38
Bottom line is “To Be The Man you have to beat The Man.”(Nature Boy Rick Flair )

Right now until some one beats them they are the man. Going to be a great game.
 
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#40
#40
DiderotsGhost said:
This is hilarious when people try to discredit the most accurate models. These types of models are used by Vegas. And while they aren't perfect, they are far more accurate than the alternative of humans randomly making bad guesses. The good computer models get things right more often than not and they are certainly more reliable than random internet message board posters.

That said, Tennessee's rapid improvement this season is difficult to factor into those models. The team that barely got by Pitt in overtime would've gotten clobbered by Georgia. The team that beat Bama, obliterated LSU, and destroyed Kentucky has a shot. It's rare for a team to improve this much this quickly and the models have difficulty factoring that in.

Georgia should be considered the favorite. It's in Athens and they've destroyed everyone they've played this season with the sole exception of Mizzou. But we have a better chance than the models suggest if we play like we have over the past few weeks.
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Bingo...models having heck of a time...what do they do now, when our D is getting better but metrics still show we're not that good, except against the run. UGA should be the favorite. The thing I keep going back to is consistency. Vols have been consistent on offense and consistently getting better on D...though the penalties must be cleaned up for UGA. UGA has been dominant, but they've also been a bit inconsistent, in my opinion, compared to last year, when I thought they were one of the best teams since maybe Nebraska back in 1990's. IF UGA brings their A game it's going to be tough. If both of us bring our A game, I think it's a shootout...maybe like the Bama game where whoever has the ball last wins. That being said, bringing your A game isn't something you turn on and turn off like a light switch, and UGA's kept some games closer than they should have been w/ self inflicted errors...so I like our chances to be in it until the end.
 
#41
#41
Ladies and gentlemen we are playing with house money in this game! We look to go 11-1 win or lose, and that means we are already miles ahead of where we thought we would be in year 2 under Heupel. With that said all the pressure is on the reigning champs, and that makes me excited! Excited because we can play like we have nothing to lose, but Georgia has everything to lose. We beat them and we are more than likely going to the SEC championship and Playoff, while their resume leaves them out in the cold more than likely. Florida gave them some trouble, and if Florida did we can give them absolute FITS! I keep hearing people say that “We haven’t faced a defense like this.” Well my friends we have faced several good defenses now and we have put up 34+ points on every opponent we have played this season which is just CRAZY! I think if we get to 30 points on Georgia we win this thing, and the key to the game will be stopping the TEs. Bowers and Darnell Washington are absolute studs, but if we can limit at least Brock bowers to under 80 yards receiving we win this game. My score prediction is Tennessee 31 Georgia 30
 
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#43
#43
NeverWe'llSever said:
We have a size able advantage at QB. That’s the biggest point in our favor. Stetson Bennett has 9 TDs, 3 INTs this year.
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Wow, that's surprising stat...would have thought more TDs. So, to me, I think we continue to sell out to stop the run and put a spy on Bowers... The good thing about playing Kentucky last week is they're like a poor man's UGA. Both like to run first and play physical football...we played more man coverage vs KY and brought pressure on Levins...I expect some of the same model this week?
 
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#45
#45
Don't know why this offends so many people. They're the defending national champs, undefeated, playing at home. OF COURSE any model is going to lean toward Georgia. Analytics are what they are . . . but this is college football where crazy stuff happens all the time and the transitive property never works.
 
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#46
#46
CNeagleVolFan said:
Ladies and gentlemen we are playing with house money in this game! We look to go 11-1 win or lose, and that means we are already miles ahead of where we thought we would be in year 2 under Heupel. With that said all the pressure is on the reigning champs, and that makes me excited! Excited because we can play like we have nothing to lose, but Georgia has everything to lose. We beat them and we are more than likely going to the SEC championship and Playoff, while their resume leaves them out in the cold more than likely. Florida gave them some trouble, and if Florida did we can give them absolute FITS! I keep hearing people say that “We haven’t faced a defense like this.” Well my friends we have faced several good defenses now and we have put up 34+ points on every opponent we have played this season which is just CRAZY! I think if we get to 30 points on Georgia we win this thing, and the key to the game will be stopping the TEs. Bowers and Darnell Washington are absolute studs, but if we can limit at least Brock bowers to under 80 yards receiving we win this game. My score prediction is Tennessee 31 Georgia 30
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House money for sure! Vols dial it in, play loose and give them a game. Just the fact that we're in this position is highly enjoyable. I'd forgotten what it's like to truly enjoy college football again.
 
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#48
#48
VolFan4Life87 said:
In the article: “For Tennessee, a loss would probably spell the end of their national title run.”

Why? If UGA does win and UT wins the remaining games on the schedule, who the F is the better one loss team than UT?
Click to expand...
Exactly, but only if we keep it fairly close. A blowout, an embarrassing performance could make it more difficult. Fortunately it won’t matter, I think we win outright, but it’ll be close.
 
#49
#49
njvols said:
House money for sure! Vols dial it in, play loose and give them a game. Just the fact that we're in this position is highly enjoyable. I'd forgotten what it's like to truly enjoy college football again.
Click to expand...
This is how I feel too. Potentially the biggest game for Tennessee in years, but I’m more relaxed than I have been in a long time. We CAN beat Georgia. If we play like we did against Kentucky then we will beat them. I think we will be all over the mailman
 
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