UT Georgia computer model prediction

#101
#101
90 Vol said:
I’ve kept track of different computer models that spits out these predictions. None of them has been worth a bucket of piss with our games this year. We’re blowing up their algorithms.
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Josh Pate's prediction model has been pretty spot on concerning our team this year.
 
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#102
#102
DiderotsGhost said:
This is hilarious when people try to discredit the most accurate models. These types of models are used by Vegas. And while they aren't perfect, they are far more accurate than the alternative of humans randomly making bad guesses. The good computer models get things right more often than not and they are certainly more reliable than random internet message board posters.

That said, Tennessee's rapid improvement this season is difficult to factor into those models. The team that barely got by Pitt in overtime would've gotten clobbered by Georgia. The team that beat Bama, obliterated LSU, and destroyed Kentucky has a shot. It's rare for a team to improve this much this quickly and the models have difficulty factoring that in.

Georgia should be considered the favorite. It's in Athens and they've destroyed everyone they've played this season with the sole exception of Mizzou. But we have a better chance than the models suggest if we play like we have over the past few weeks.
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The Vegas models do not try to predict who is going to win. They try to get the money being bet split evenly for both teams. Models are useful for sure, but if you do an individual analysis of the two teams it should be clear that there is a decent chance things are skewed a bit in this particular game.
 
#103
#103
TennMan101 said:
Josh Pate's prediction model has been pretty spot on concerning our team this year.
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Not really. His model said Kentucky would cover the 12 point spread this past Saturday. And we all saw how that turned out. Also nobody saw us going into LSU and blowing them put.

This team has surpassed pretty much every expectation this year. The only game we haven't covered was against Florida and we all know that was because we foolishly went to a prevent defense when we got up 3 scores in the 4th quarter.

I like our chances to exceed expectations once again this week.
 
#104
#104
Stephen Gray said:
The Vegas models do not try to predict who is going to win. They try to get the money being bet split evenly for both teams. Models are useful for sure, but if you do an individual analysis of the two teams it should be clear that there is a decent chance things are skewed a bit in this particular game.
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Actually no. There are plenty of times Vegas will allow the majority of the money to be bet on one side without moving the spread. They're Vegas because they win more on those type of handles than they lose.

What Vegas does is they power rate teams based on their perceived strength. Then they set the line based on this power rating. If they see the money coming in moving hard one way or another they might adjust the line to be more balanced if they are unsure about how they power rated the matchup. If they are sure then they don't move the line and instead continue to take the unbalanced bets with the goal of winning big on the game.
 
#108
#108
Dobbs 4 Heisman said:
Actually no. There are plenty of times Vegas will allow the majority of the money to be bet on one side without moving the spread. They're Vegas because they win more on those type of handles than they lose.

What Vegas does is they power rate teams based on their perceived strength. Then they set the line based on this power rating. If they see the money coming in moving hard one way or another they might adjust the line to be more balanced if they are unsure about how they power rated the matchup. If they are sure then they don't move the line and instead continue to take the unbalanced bets with the goal of winning big on the game.
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Sources? I've always understood the goal of spread betting to be to create active markets on each side, ideally close to 50% so they always win their market maker fee. I've never heard of them actively accepting risk by not moving a line when money is bet heavily on one side.
 
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#109
#109
As much as I hate Bama, when healthy, they were the best team in the country last year, not Georgia. We beat almost that same Bama team, this Georgia team might be a little better offensively than last year, but I just don't see it on defense. I'm biased, but I don't think Bennett plays well under pressure.
 
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#112
#112
GBOplayer said:
ESPN Computer's Prediction For Georgia vs. Tennessee

A computer simulation using advanced metrics predicts that Georgia will win easily, 75% chance that Georgia will win....I guess that's why we are almost 2 touchdown underdogs
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I have the same feeling I had with Bama. please don't let this he a blow out and just win the other games this year that could give you a 10 win season. That said, now I am wondering if it is possible we beat Georgia decisively only because of how our defense played. This game will the test of many of their careers, because of the implications. Not sure we will be playing for 9-0 again at least until Iamalava is a Sophomore or Junior. The latter means 3/4 of these kids will be gone.

Time is now.
 
#113
#113
VolRage said:
That’s wonderful considering computer models can’t predict weather accurately so I don’t give two flips about computer model predictions. I can’t tell you how many times inaccurate weather predictions have messed me up during deer season. My hope is that we beat GA by 17 or more. Watching Kirby lose it on the sideline is priceless.
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Yep just like Nicky did !
 
#116
#116
Stephen Gray said:
Sources? I've always understood the goal of spread betting to be to create active markets on each side, ideally close to 50% so they always win their market maker fee. I've never heard of them actively accepting risk by not moving a line when money is bet heavily on one side.
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I follow a lot of betting sites like VSIN and that's how they explain it. They have oddsmakers come on the show regularly to talk about how the money is being bet on certain matchups and the Vegas guys will openly admit that they are seeing far more money coming in on one side versus the other. So the idea they balance the bets to be 50/50 is not true.

What makes them move a line they have power rated is if they see a lot of "sharp" money coming in on one side. And sharps are typically professional betters who have a track record of winning on their big bets. Typically that happens when someone has inside information about an injury before everyone else.
 
#117
#117
I don't buy it. When it comes to big games or rivalry games between teams, you can throw everything out the window. The fact that Florida was able to score that many points on Georgia and caused them to turnover the ball, gives me even more confidence we can win the shootout. Missouri and Florida have shown CJH and staff a thing or two about playing against GA and you can bet they're studying those films hard.
 
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#118
#118
GAVol said:
Ah . . . The ole "we play better as the underdogs" take.

This really is starting to feel like the good ole days.
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This has been a dream season for me. This team and this coach has done what the last 24 couldn't by making us all a big orange family again.
 
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#119
#119
GBOplayer said:
ESPN Computer's Prediction For Georgia vs. Tennessee

A computer simulation using advanced metrics predicts that Georgia will win easily, 75% chance that Georgia will win....I guess that's why we are almost 2 touchdown underdogs
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My model says that was a good home run when we score six points on a field of grass with yard lines. JK, but we probably don't stand a chance, with our #2 ranking and 131st out of 129 ranked defense. At least the model was correct when Butch Jones single-handedly beat the dawgz!
 
#120
#120
VFL 89 said:
I don't buy it. When it comes to big games or rivalry games between teams, you can throw everything out the window. The fact that Florida was able to score that many points on Georgia and caused them to turnover the ball, gives me even more confidence we can win the shootout. Missouri and Florida have shown CJH and staff a thing or two about playing against GA and you can bet they're studying those films hard.
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Very well worded, I couldn't have said it better myself. We kinda have a decent coach that may know how to score on anyone.
 
#121
#121
VolRage said:
That’s wonderful considering computer models can’t predict weather accurately so I don’t give two flips about computer model predictions. I can’t tell you how many times inaccurate weather predictions have messed me up during deer season. My hope is that we beat GA by 17 or more. Watching Kirby lose it on the sideline is priceless.
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Rage, rage against the dying of the light, good sir! Do not go gentle into that night!
 
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#124
#124
CMcEver said:
As much as I hate Bama, when healthy, they were the best team in the country last year, not Georgia. We beat almost that same Bama team, this Georgia team might be a little better offensively than last year, but I just don't see it on defense. I'm biased, but I don't think Bennett plays well under pressure.
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agreed - if you get to Bennet enough times, it all goes south for that offense... but then again, that's the same for 80% of all QBs/Offenses.
 
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