UT Georgia computer model prediction

#76
#76
sjt18 said:
Looks like Sagarin has it somewhere between 5 and 8 points.
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Yeah, Sagarin has Georgia favored by about 7 on the combined model (once you factor in 3 points for home field), but only 5.5 on the "Recent" model. I wish more quant modelers made their rating system easily transferable to a betting line like Sagarin.
 
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#77
#77
Just based on stats, I would say that UT would beat GA around 3 times if they played 10 games. I would put them beating Bama at about the same maybe winning 4. However, models cannot factor in momentum or emotions. For UT to be successful, it sure helps to get off to a fast start. It’s a lot easier to win a fight if you throw the first good punch.
 
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#78
#78
Volfan39 said:
Just remember this same computer has Texas at 6. So this computer doesn’t really matter at all
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If Quinn Ewers doesn't get injured versus Bama, Texas is 7-1 right now, and being mentioned in the playoff conversation. The computers are right about Texas. They would've dominated Bama with Ewers. Even without Ewers, they barely lost to Bama and Texas Tech. Their only loss with Ewers healthy was a close one on the road to Okie State.

Also just a reminder that the computers never liked Kentucky like the media did. Kentucky has been a top 10 / top 20 team most of the season in the human polls, but they've been down around 30-40 in the computer polls. The computer polls are looking more correct than not.
 
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#79
#79
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I’m just saying I wouldn’t care about that computer if these were the rankings. That’s just my opinion though
 
#81
#81
VolFan4Life87 said:
In the article: “For Tennessee, a loss would probably spell the end of their national title run.”

Why? If UGA does win and UT wins the remaining games on the schedule, who the F is the better one loss team than UT?
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That was interesting right
 
#82
#82
VolFan4Life87 said:
In the article: “For Tennessee, a loss would probably spell the end of their national title run.”

Why? If UGA does win and UT wins the remaining games on the schedule, who the F is the better one loss team than UT?
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If that happens and UGA beats Bama(if they make it), we're probably still in.
 
#83
#83
Vol in Buckeye Land said:
Hard to get meaningful data for college football, I would think, so it’s amazing that these models are right as often as they are (I’ve read that it’s about 75%).
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In fairness though, if you're only looking for winners you could flip a coin for each game every week and be 50% accurate for the season, so I'd bet that just picking the obvious mismatches would get you pretty close to that 75%. Of course, trying to predict the margin of victory is an entirely different thing.

I think the biggest problems with modeling college football are the talent disparities combined with the limited number of games.
 
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#85
#85
robbymoore94 said:
Just based on stats, I would say that UT would beat GA around 3 times if they played 10 games. I would put them beating Bama at about the same maybe winning 4. However, models cannot factor in momentum or emotions. For UT to be successful, it sure helps to get off to a fast start. It’s a lot easier to win a fight if you throw the first good punch.
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Yeah, like we did at Pitt. Would have hated to fall behind and not be able to recover.....
 
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#87
#87
Carp said:
The problem is we would have to depend on at least 1 of Clemson/TCU losing. And even then we'd also have to depend on UGA beating Bama in the SECCG (assuming Bama wins out). The committee won't leave out 1 loss UGA team if they lose in the SECCG to Bama.

Even then, a 1 loss USC, Clemson, or TCU that wins their conference would likely be selected before us. The committee values conference champions. Like it or not, the loser of this weekend is likely out of the playoffs unless some other teams fall out of the picture.
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There are lots of powerful people who would make the same argument about Michigan/Ohio State loser that we would make over a TN/GA or TN/Bama or GA/Bama loser. That's even if Clemson and TCU and USC stumble. Without going to the SECCG I don't see the Vols getting in. Still, either way, this season will be among my favorite 3 seasons of the 60 I have followed the Vols. It is special either way and I have enjoyed it.

Just don't lose to MO or SCar.
 
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#88
#88
VolRage said:
That’s wonderful considering computer models can’t predict weather accurately so I don’t give two flips about computer model predictions. I can’t tell you how many times inaccurate weather predictions have messed me up during deer season. My hope is that we beat GA by 17 or more. Watching Kirby lose it on the sideline is priceless.
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It was 87 percent two weeks ago. So at least it's going down.
 
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#89
#89
DiderotsGhost said:
This is hilarious when people try to discredit the most accurate models. These types of models are used by Vegas. And while they aren't perfect, they are far more accurate than the alternative of humans randomly making bad guesses. The good computer models get things right more often than not and they are certainly more reliable than random internet message board posters.

That said, Tennessee's rapid improvement this season is difficult to factor into those models. The team that barely got by Pitt in overtime would've gotten clobbered by Georgia. The team that beat Bama, obliterated LSU, and destroyed Kentucky has a shot. It's rare for a team to improve this much this quickly and the models have difficulty factoring that in.

Georgia should be considered the favorite. It's in Athens and they've destroyed everyone they've played this season with the sole exception of Mizzou. But we have a better chance than the models suggest if we play like we have over the past few weeks.
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Ask Florida how the last Hurricane models worked out. Hurricane Vol is about to make direct landfall in Athens.
 
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#90
#90
#91
#91
VolRage said:
That’s wonderful considering computer models can’t predict weather accurately so I don’t give two flips about computer model predictions. I can’t tell you how many times inaccurate weather predictions have messed me up during deer season. My hope is that we beat GA by 17 or more. Watching Kirby lose it on the sideline is priceless.
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Most Tennessee fan post ever. +10 cool points.
 
#92
#92
VolRage said:
That’s wonderful considering computer models can’t predict weather accurately so I don’t give two flips about computer model predictions. I can’t tell you how many times inaccurate weather predictions have messed me up during deer season. My hope is that we beat GA by 17 or more. Watching Kirby lose it on the sideline is priceless.
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I don't know this but I bet the computer said BAMA was going to beat us too.

Looked it but and Bama had a 69% chance of winning.
 
#93
#93
Amazing how biased and corrupt the polls are. If Tennessee loses, they’re most likely out of the national title hunt. If Georgia loses, they still have a chance.

Beating the hell out of a UGA dawg is not animal abuse. Go Big Orange! 🍊

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#97
#97
I would rather see a "ESPN Computer's Prediction Model" for a headset throwing contest between Saban, Kelly, Stoops and Smart.
 
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