UT or UNC for the Last #1 Seed

[Stoerner Fumbles]

I have been extremely high on this team all year and have thought that this team could be the one to end our March sadness. Today’s performance has certainly stunted that confidence a bit. This has been pathetic.

Kentucky definitely put out a blueprint to spread our D out, out-tough us in the paint, and double Knecht hi/lo. Hopefully we can make it three rounds before we have to face athletes who spread us, drive, hold Knecht etc., with bigs who can kill us low. Looking for some glimmer of hope out of this debacle.

 

[TheMookieMonster]

Kentucky definitely put out a blueprint to spread our D out, out-tough us in the paint, and double Knecht hi/lo. Hopefully we can make it three rounds before we have to face athletes who spread us, drive, hold Knecht etc., with bigs who can kill us low. Looking for some glimmer of hope out of this debacle.

Fair perspective. For me, it feels like our only hope right now is to get the absolutely perfect draw with a bottom side of the bracket heavy on finesse teams that are allergic to defense and like to play on the perimeter. This team seems to despise any sort of physical play.

 

[TrumpedUpVol]

I have been extremely high on this team all year and have thought that this team could be the one to end our March sadness. Today’s performance has certainly stunted that confidence a bit. This has been pathetic.

Better to have a miserable game now than in the dance. I get where you’re coming from and think the Vols’ difficulties against State portend poorly going forward when it comes to teams with an aggressive/competent big man (Purdue/Kansas/UNC are complete teams so that’s a different problem, but State isn’t a world-beater), but as long as UT doesn’t pull the nonsense it did today with first-half 3PT volume I still believe this is the year… albeit, almost certainly, as a 2 seed.

 

[TheMookieMonster]

Better to have a miserable game now than in the dance. I get where you’re coming from and think the Vols’ difficulties against State portend poorly going forward when it comes to teams with an aggressive/competent big man (Purdue/Kansas/UNC are complete teams so that’s a different problem, but State isn’t a world-beater), but as long as UT doesn’t pull the nonsense it did today with first-half 3PT volume I still believe this is the year… albeit, almost certainly, as a 2 seed.

Yes, you obviously want to avoid a stinker in the big one, but history shows that teams losing early in their conference tournament don’t do well in the NCAAT. I posed a stat in another thread but no national champion since tournament expansion has failed to make their conference semi.

 

[CAVPUT]

I have been extremely high on this team all year and have thought that this team could be the one to end our March sadness. Today’s performance has certainly stunted that confidence a bit. This has been pathetic.

Just takes years of experience to become a fully aware UT fan. You can't be faulted for your youthful optimism. Time is a wonderful teacher as is history.

 

[Stoerner Fumbles]

Just takes years of experience to become a fully aware UT fan. You can't be faulted for your youthful optimism. Time is a wonderful teacher as is history.

Cav lives for days like this.

 

[therealitytheory]

Why foul??

 

[therealitytheory]

Move Mashack ahead of Santi going forward.

 

[TrumpedUpVol]

Yes, you obviously want to avoid a stinker in the big one, but history shows that teams losing early in their conference tournament don’t do well in the NCAAT. I posed a stat in another thread but no national champion since tournament expansion has failed to make their conference semi.

I thought that you were the one who posted the stat and while it’s obviously true and a reasonable variable to consider when picking a bracket, this feels like one of those notable data points that’ll change in the next ten years and there *have* been multiple (many?) teams that didn’t make their conference tournament semi-finals yet made the Final Four which I believe is the true goal.

 

[TrueOrange]

Yes, you obviously want to avoid a stinker in the big one, but history shows that teams losing early in their conference tournament don’t do well in the NCAAT. I posed a stat in another thread but no national champion since tournament expansion has failed to make their conference semi.

That’s a small sample size overall though. What happens if you look at final four or elite 8 teams?

 

[TheMookieMonster]

That’s a small sample size overall though. What happens if you look at final four or elite 8 teams?

I would imagine it’s not much better. I saw a stat that since 2016 only 3 teams have entered March on a 2-game losing streak or more and proceeded to make a Final Four.

Sure, trends are made to be bucked, but the point is we are playing our worst ball all year at the worst time. Which just sucks.

 

[Carl Pickens]

It’s not UT

 

[cncchris33]

Yes, you obviously want to avoid a stinker in the big one, but history shows that teams losing early in their conference tournament don’t do well in the NCAAT. I posed a stat in another thread but no national champion since tournament expansion has failed to make their conference semi.

I know we've all lived on the belief that this team was F4 material all year because of the highs we have seen and the existence of a great scorer, but honestly, I don't know if I ever really believed it. It's been a novel concept, but we are who we are. A team that lacks offensive punch in big moments.

In the back of my mind, I think I've always known that us winning 4 straight games to make a F4 with this team was just not very realistic, unfortunately. If we had the 2023 version of Santi that we've all hoped would eventually find his way, and the 2022 version of Gainey who shot 50% from 3, then maybe it's different. But the C-minus version of those two guys combined with the inconsistent versions of Aidoo against big, physical post players has really just neutered some of Knecht’s best performances. He just can't do it all by himself.

Are we really that much better as a team than the 2023 version of ourselves? I know the record is slightly better and we won the SEC, but is the floor in a tournament environment really much higher for this version than that version? I'll agree the ceiling is higher, but we just fail to play up to that ceiling far too often to think we won't see a similar performance like our last two games before reaching the 3rd weekend of the NCAAT.

 

[Go47]

Sweet 16 . . . Maybe. It depends on matchups. The tournament is verbally about guard play - ZZ will need to play well.

Teams with a big physical inside player . . . Are a real problem for this team (and most teams).

If UT gets a lucky draw and shoots well, they will make a sweet 16. But I think that’s the ceiling.

The other hard to discern factor is getting “hot” at the right time. Currently the Vols have a look of playing their worst for two games (though they played ok against Kentucky).

 

[Chaz-Vol]

I know we've all lived on the belief that this team was F4 material all year because of the highs we have seen and the existence of a great scorer, but honestly, I don't know if I ever really believed it. It's been a novel concept, but we are who we are. A team that lacks offensive punch in big moments.

In the back of my mind, I think I've always known that us winning 4 straight games to make a F4 with this team was just not very realistic, unfortunately. If we had the 2023 version of Santi that we've all hoped would eventually find his way, and the 2022 version of Gainey who shot 50% from 3, then maybe it's different. But the C-minus version of those two guys combined with the inconsistent versions of Aidoo against big, physical post players has really just neutered some of Knecht’s best performances. He just can't do it all by himself.

Are we really that much better as a team than the 2023 version of ourselves? I know the record is slightly better and we won the SEC, but is the floor in a tournament environment really much higher for this version than that version? I'll agree the ceiling is higher, but we just fail to play up to that ceiling far too often to think we won't see a similar performance like our last two games before reaching the 3rd weekend of the NCAAT.

This loss hurts and was embarrassing. I do think this years team is definitely better than last years if not solely for Knecht, healthy ZZ, and Aidoo and better than 3 best players from last years team which didn't even have a pg during the tourney.

This particular team is what it is and its weaknesses are on full display. Big physical teams can completely rock them and throw them off their game. Talent is definitely there but so are the glaring weaknesses. It all comes down to the bracket and how we match up.

 

[TheMookieMonster]

I know we've all lived on the belief that this team was F4 material all year because of the highs we have seen and the existence of a great scorer, but honestly, I don't know if I ever really believed it. It's been a novel concept, but we are who we are. A team that lacks offensive punch in big moments.

In the back of my mind, I think I've always known that us winning 4 straight games to make a F4 with this team was just not very realistic, unfortunately. If we had the 2023 version of Santi that we've all hoped would eventually find his way, and the 2022 version of Gainey who shot 50% from 3, then maybe it's different. But the C-minus version of those two guys combined with the inconsistent versions of Aidoo against big, physical post players has really just neutered some of Knecht’s best performances. He just can't do it all by himself.

Are we really that much better as a team than the 2023 version of ourselves? I know the record is slightly better and we won the SEC, but is the floor in a tournament environment really much higher for this version than that version? I'll agree the ceiling is higher, but we just fail to play up to that ceiling far too often to think we won't see a similar performance like our last two games before reaching the 3rd weekend of the NCAAT.

I can’t dispute anything you said. Personally, I did believe that this team was different than other Barnes’ teams. There was a stretch in January and February where Aidoo had played at an All-American level and we also got some big games from JJJ. Gainey also had several games in SEC play where he put 15+ on the board. I say all of that to make the point that I did think we had the scoring punch to get past typical March woes. And while the record is similar to last year, we played a much harder schedule this year.

That being said, it’s been weeks since this team has shot well. It’s been weeks since we have seen that balanced scoring attack that made this team special. It took a Herculean effort from Knecht against Auburn to win that game. He scored 26 of our 66 against South Carolina. We shot poorly against Alabama. And then 40 from Knecht against UK in a L. And before that stretch we played terribly against a now 0-19 Mizzou squad.

It’s hard to not look at this team and think we have been trending in the wrong direction for 2.5 weeks. We were 13th in KenPom AdjO entering that Auburn game I think, and I would guess when his website updates we will be outside the Top 30 for the first time in months.

You may be right. Maybe this team was just a pretender all along with a once in a generation talent. Hopefully not. But I guess we will find out soon enough.

 

[Tshotdan]

Really, 2-3 seed suits them. Always blowing it like I said earlier this year. How embarrassing!

 

[cncchris33]

This loss hurts and was embarrassing. I do think this years team is definitely better than last years if not solely for Knecht, healthy ZZ, and Aidoo and better than 3 best players from last years team which didn't even have a pg during the tourney.

This particular team is what it is and its weaknesses are on full display. Big physical teams can completely rock them and throw them off their game. Talent is definitely there but so are the glaring weaknesses. It all comes down to the bracket and how we match up.

I agree that this team is more capable (aka higher ceiling). But I'm just not sure they have a higher floor. In other words, and most simply stated, the worst version we've seen of this bunch isn't remarkably better than the worst version of last year's team. Knecht does raise the floor, but the castrated version of Santi lowers it. Same with Gainey. ZZ is roughly the same player he was last year, maybe a tick better.

Aidoo is the key, to me. If he can just be solid to go along with ZZ and DK, it makes such a huge difference. You just never know what you're getting with him. Against a stout front line, though (like today), you can just about count on King Charmin showing up.

In our 8 losses, he averages 7.9 pts and 7.0 rebs on 45% shooting.

In our 24 wins, he averages 13.3 pts and 8.3 rebs on 55% shooting.

 

[brockytop]

This team won’t get out of the second round.

 

[GoodTimeVol]

This team won’t get out of the second round.

We should pin this!

 

[GoodTimeVol]

Really, 2-3 seed suits them. Always blowing it like I said earlier this year. How embarrassing!

 

[cncchris33]

I can’t dispute anything you said. Personally, I did believe that this team was different than other Barnes’ teams. There was a stretch in January and February where Aidoo had played at an All-American level and we also got some big games from JJJ. Gainey also had several games in SEC play where he put 15+ on the board. I say all of that to make the point that I did think we had the scoring punch to get past typical March woes. And while the record is similar to last year, we played a much harder schedule this year.

That being said, it’s been weeks since this team has shot well. It’s been weeks since we have seen that balanced scoring attack that made this team special. It took a Herculean effort from Knecht against Auburn to win that game. He scored 26 of our 66 against South Carolina. We shot poorly against Alabama. And then 40 from Knecht against UK in a L. And before that stretch we played terribly against a now 0-19 Mizzou squad.

It’s hard to not look at this team and think we have been trending in the wrong direction for 2.5 weeks. We were 13th in KenPom AdjO entering that Auburn game I think, and I would guess when his website updates we will be outside the Top 30 for the first time in months.

You may be right. Maybe this team was just a pretender all along with a once in a generation talent. Hopefully not. But I guess we will find out soon enough.

I do think they showed glimpses that made us all want to believe. As you said, different guys have had moments throughout the season, and in some of those moments, we glimpsed the ceiling at which this team is capable of playing.. But like you noted, the trends, especially offensively, have been pointing down for weeks, now. Same song, different verse, I'm afraid. I really hope they find some kind of magic in the next week.

 

[UTK]

But the conference tourney doesn’t matter for seeding right?

 

[Voltopia]

"No. 1 seed in doubt." ESPN greasing its wheels for its shocked Pikachu face "oh my Gosh North Carolina is surging ahead of the other top teams" marketing campaign. Spare me the faux controversy.

 

[TheMookieMonster]

I do think they showed glimpses that made us all want to believe. As you said, different guys have had moments throughout the season, and in some of those moments, we glimpsed the ceiling at which this team is capable of playing.. But like you noted, the trends, especially offensively, have been pointing down for weeks, now. Same song, different verse, I'm afraid. I really hope they find some kind of magic in the next week.

Very true. Feels weird to think that we have watched this team for 32 games and I don’t think there has been a stretch of play where I thought this team was “peaking” all year. Just glimpses, as you noted. Doesn’t feel like we have had a stretch of games where we put it all together offensively and defensively to see that level we thought they could be capable of.

Just saw that KenPom updated and we are now 30th in AdjO. I’m not sure how you fix the offense. Maybe facing some weaker teams the first weekend can help build confidence? Feels like wishful thinking though.